By Ralph Jennings in Taipei
It hasn’t been an easy year for Taiwan’s central bank. The authority – which uses exchange rates to manage the economy – grappled in early 2010 with rapid currency gains as investors expected the Chinese yuan to pull the rest of emerging Asia higher.
In October and November the central bank fought back as the Taiwan dollar surged about 3 per cent as hot money flowed into Asia after the United States launched a new round of monetary easing. On Tuesday the currency went at it again, but the central bank may stay on the sidelines this time.
The Taiwan dollar broke its key psychological barrier of T$30 per US dollar, rising as high as T$29.927 in the first hour of trade. An intra-day break past the T$30 mark was last seen in early 2008 on euphoria over the election of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou as markets expected him to forge new trade ties with economic powerhouse China. It has not closed a session above T$30 since 1997, before today’s central bank Gov. Perng Fai-nan took control. Read more
Blink and you may have missed it.
But last Friday, Ben Bernanke probably made his most important speech since his ‘helicopter money‘ talk almost eight years ago.
According to author and economist Richard Duncan this is the first time the Federal Reserve chairman has publicly pointed out that the international monetary system may have a structural flaw. In the dollar standard.
As Duncan told FT Alphaville this weekend:
In it he conceded the Dollar Standard is flawed. He said, “As currently constituted, the international monetary system has a structural flaw: It lacks a mechanism, market based or otherwise, to induce needed adjustments by surplus countries, which can result in persistent imbalances.”
The renminbi is 17 per cent undervalued against the dollar while the yen is 8 per cent overvalued…
William Cline and John Williamson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics have done a service to the currency wars debate by releasing an update to their estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) for various countries against the dollar in a very interesting policy brief. Read more
South Korea, holder of the world’s fifth-biggest foreign exchange reserves, is considering expanding its small holdings of gold to diversify its dollar-heavy portfolio.
Such a move could prove significant to the international gold market as Seoul currently only holds about 14 tonnes of the lustrous metal, equal to just 0.2 per cent of its $290bn reserves at current prices. By contrast, Italy and France each hold just under 2,500 tonnes of gold, amounting to more than 65 per cent of their reserves. Read more
East Asian currencies are anything but stable viewed against the dollar: the Thai baht recently topped a 13-year high – and the yen and ringgit have both outpaced the baht’s rise so far this year. Viewed against each other, of course, these appreciating currencies are more stable.
New research challenges the habit of viewing all currencies against the dollar. It goes on to suggest that “considerable regional currency stability” can be achieved in east Asia if countries target the same basket of currencies as each other – even with no “explicit co-operation”.
China’s currency policy between mid-2006 and mid-2008 should be seen in this light, the paper argues; the simple view of the renminbi against the dollar does not explain the facts nearly as well. “The RMB behaved in this two-year period as if it were managed to appreciate gradually over time against its trade-weighted basket of currencies,” argue Guonan Ma and Robert N McCauley of BIS. Read more
The value of a Big Mac is everyhere equal: that’s the premiss of this index from the Economist. Using the burger price as an identity allows us to compare the relative value of countries’ currencies.
Norway comes out most overvalued versus the dollar; Argentina the least. In dollar terms, a Norwegian Big Mac is a meaty $7.20, almost double the American value ($3.73) and nearly four times the Argentinian price ($1.78). Read more
China has repeated its commitment to US debt (as though they’d do anything else when they’re long an estimated $2,450bn). But the data back them up. Figures show the drop in US holdings was among advanced economies; emerging economies increased their holdings, in aggregate, between Q409 and Q110. Indeed, emerging markets’ increase more than offset advanced countries’ decrease, leading to a small net increase overall. Data from IMF.
Related post: Advanced economies destock dollar by $5.5bn (July 2)
Which reserve currencies are left for central bankers, concerned first about the dollar, and now the euro?
Peter Garnham, the FT’s currency correspondent, points out that the likely beneficiary of the more recent euro crisis has been the dollar, “simply because other destinations – Canada and Australia for example – are simply not large enough for them to use as significant diversification destinations.”
Will this dollar-euro ping-pong continue, and, even if it does, are the combined euro-dollar fortunes of the past two years meriting ever smaller reserve allocations? Read more
… and the Aussie dollar is set to crash, relative to the greenback. This is the surprising implication of analysis from a former chief economist at Wamco.
Scott Grannis has essentially compared currency movements with the ‘true’ value of that currency. He’s done this by picking one exchange rate he considers fair, and then adjusting both currencies for inflation and working out the resulting exchange rate over time. Read more