This is a summary of part of Goldman Sachs’ 2010 Commodity Outlook

The commodities investor has typically seen commodities as substitutes: for the past five years, price convergence has been a feature of commodity markets.

Supply shortages are changing that. A lack of investment coupled with protectionism has led to shortages of most commodities, natural gas and nickel being notable exceptions. Supply shortages will lead to greater price divergence between commodities. Three factors will determine the price: supply constraints, investment constraints, and emerging market demand.

On the whole, emerging markets are willing to pay more than developed economies 

The World Bank questions the supremacy of the United States, as other commentators question the legitimacy and usefulness of the World Bank. Bad news for ‘developed’ countries; good news for ‘emerging’ markets; and questions over the distinction between them