The week ahead in central banking
Our week ahead email helps you to track the most important events in central banking. To see all of our emails and alerts visit www.ft.com/nbe
More QE from the Bank?
The Bank of England‘s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Wednesday and Thursday, when the decision is due out at noon UK time (11am GMT).
Vince Reinhart – does QE work?
Vincent Reinhart of Morgan Stanley has a fascinating note out today which reverse engineers US forecasts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook to answer questions about headwinds to demand, the effectiveness of unconventional Fed policy and the potential growth rate.
His chart on the effectiveness of Fed policy is particularly neat. Essentially, he plots annual long-term real interest rates against short-term real interest rates for the years from 1980 to 2007, draws a regression line, and then adds on dots for 2008 to 2011.
How to improve the Fed’s rate forecasts
The most obvious problem with the Fed’s interest rate forecasts, discussed here yesterday, is their dissonance with the FOMC statement’s forecast of exceptionally low interest rates “at least through late 2014″.
The median participant (9th of 17) thinks rates should be 1 per cent at the end of 2014 and the median voter (5th or 6th of 10) must think they should be a minimum of 0.5 per cent. The statement is a committee decision and it can reasonably be different from the median individual view. It is still confusing, though, and weakens the credibility of the statement when they look so different.
The Fed is looking at a wide range of options to tweak communications further. Some would resolve the issues with this chart – for example Mr Bernanke acknowledged the idea of identifying who made each individual forecast – while others address the broader and more important question of giving information on the Fed’s reaction function.
Here, though, are a few ways to address the simple confusion caused by the voter/non-voter divide in the rate forecast chart.
The Fed’s rate forecast mess
There’s probably nothing that would annoy Ben Bernanke more than being caught in a logical inconsistency over some aspect of monetary policy. At the Fed’s press conference today, he vigorously defended himself against Paul Krugman’s charge that the Fed’s recent actions are inconsistent with his academic views on Japan fifteen years ago.
The Fed’s interest rate forecasts, however, are getting the bank into a real bind:
March FOMC minutes: A few > A couple
The March FOMC minutes mark a step back from further Fed easing along multiple dimensions. The signal is pretty clear and becomes even more so once you think behind the words. In January:
“A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions – including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee’s objective – could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long. Other members indicated that such policy action could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run.”
Bernanke & GDI
The strength of the gross domestic income in the fourth quarter of 2011 – it was up by an annualised 4.4 per cent – has been widely remarked upon. The contrast with the weaker 3 per cent growth in gross domestic product is striking.
The rise in GDI invalidates part of what Ben Bernanke said in his labour markets speech only three days ago. Mr Bernanke said (my emphasis):
Troy Davig to the Kansas City Fed
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has today announced the appointment of Troy Davig as its new director of research.
“Troy Davig has been named senior vice president and director of research. Davig had served at the Bank from 2005 to 2010 in the Economic Research Department. He is rejoining the Bank after serving as senior U.S. economist for Barclays Capital since 2010. As director of research, Davig will act as the Bank’s chief economic policy advisor, provide executive oversight for the Bank’s Economic Research Division and serve as a member of the Bank’s Management Committee, which has responsibility for the Bank’s strategic planning and policy.”
Although low profile, the twelve research directors of the regional Fed banks are very important to monetary policy, especially when the president of the bank is not a macroeconomist. Esther George, who was appointed president in Kansas City last October, is mainly known for her work on bank regulation.
Is more BoJ easing on the cards?
As most suspected, the Bank of Japan did little today to step up its fight against deflation.
Bar some tinkering with its special lending facilities, the BoJ kept policy on hold with the size of its asset purchase programme remaining at Y65tn.
However, there are signs that the central bank could do some proper easing in the coming months.
The week ahead in central banking
Our week ahead email helps you track the most important events in central banking. To see all of our emails and alerts visit www.ft.com/nbe
The Federal Open Market Committee and the Bank of Japan’s policy board both vote on Tuesday. Will either panel back a change in course?
Brady’s bill on the Fed
Kevin Brady, Texas Republican and vice-chair of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, will introduce a bill to reform the Fed later this week. The bill, called the “Sound Dollar Act”, would among other things:
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Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS
Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief, has been writing about European economics and politics for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. He has been watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies since 2004. He has previously worked in London, Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS
Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS
Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS
James Politi is US economics and trade correspondent for the Financial Times, based in Washington DC. He joined the Washington bureau in January 2008 following four and a half years as US deals correspondent covering M&A and private equity. James Politi joined the FT in London in 2000 with an MSc at the London School of Economics, and undergraduate degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Florence. RSS
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