FOMC speak

Robin Harding

For my money the most interesting piece of Fedspeak today was some coded support for further easing from John Williams of the San Francisco Fed. Mr Williams wasn’t exactly gung ho, but his words were fairly clear.

“Right now, though, the real threat is an economy that is at risk of stalling and the prospect of many years of very high unemployment, with potentially long-run negative consequences for our economy. There are a number of potential steps the Fed could take to ease financial conditions further and move us closer to our mandated goals of maximum employment and price stability. Of course, these “treatments” won’t make our economic problems go away and their costs and benefits must be carefully balanced. But they could offer a measure of protection against further deterioration in the patient’s condition and perhaps help him get back on his feet.”

Mr Williams also set out an economic forecast that is notably grim on unemployment. He forecast 2 per cent annualised growth in the second half of 2011, but unemployment above 9 per cent at the end of this year, and most importantly, above 8.5 per cent at the end of 2012. Mr Williams also referred to ‘stall speed’ implying that he sees plenty of downside risk. You would certainly want to ease with that forecast. Read more

Claire Jones

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Public appearances

A busy week is in store for Jean-Claude Trichet.

On Saturday, the ECB president will speak at Jackson Hole at 17:00 GMT. On Monday, Mr Trichet travels to Brussels, where he will field questions from the European parliament on how to restore market confidence (some suggestions from Ralph Atkins and Chris Giles).

The president will be joined by Jean-Claude Juncker, Eurogroup president, Jacek Rostowski, Poland’s finance minister and Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs.  The hearing takes place at 13.00 GMT.

On Thursday, ECB executive board member Jürgen Stark is a participant in a panel on Europe and global competitionRead more

Robin Harding

The St Louis Fed has just launched a brilliant new resource called FOMC Speak. It’s an archive of all public comments by members of the FOMC including interviews and video.

Kudos to the St Louis Fed, which is also responsible for FRED, the best place to find US economic data.