interest rate forecast

Robin Harding

The FOMC meets for a two-day meeting on the 24th & 25th of April, with a decision expected as usual at 12.30pm, followed by a press conference at 2.15pm.

What to expect

Not a lot. If there are any substantive moves, I would expect them to be changes in the communications framework, rather than to existing parameters of monetary policy. Read more >>

Robin Harding

The new FOMC interest rate forecasts will be released today with the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections at 2pm. A lot of the commentary suggests that the forecasts of the first rate rise will be heavily clustered in 2014. These are illustrative examples from Credit Suisse: Read more >>

Robin Harding

I got this one wrong last week by over-interpreting some comments by St Louis Fed president James Bullard. Mea culpa.

Today, the FRB has released two templates to show what its interest rate forecasts will look like when they are actually released next Wednesday. It will take the form of two charts, one showing the actual rate forecasts and one expectations for the year of the first rise, although it should be fairly easy to extract the numerical forecasts quickly from both of them. Read more >>

Robin Harding

On a call with reporters this morning to discuss his new paper “Death of a Theory” (about which more later), James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, made some helpful comments about the new rate projections that the Fed will publish at its next meeting. I quoted him in support of rate forecasts in February last year which was well ahead of the game. Today he said: Read more >>