FOMC preview April 2012
The FOMC meets for a two-day meeting on the 24th & 25th of April, with a decision expected as usual at 12.30pm, followed by a press conference at 2.15pm.
What to expect
Not a lot. If there are any substantive moves, I would expect them to be changes in the communications framework, rather than to existing parameters of monetary policy. Read more
A quick thought ahead of the FOMC
The new FOMC interest rate forecasts will be released today with the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections at 2pm. A lot of the commentary suggests that the forecasts of the first rate rise will be heavily clustered in 2014. These are illustrative examples from Credit Suisse: Read more
What the FOMC rate forecasts will look like
I got this one wrong last week by over-interpreting some comments by St Louis Fed president James Bullard. Mea culpa.
Today, the FRB has released two templates to show what its interest rate forecasts will look like when they are actually released next Wednesday. It will take the form of two charts, one showing the actual rate forecasts and one expectations for the year of the first rise, although it should be fairly easy to extract the numerical forecasts quickly from both of them. Read more
What the FOMC’s rate projections will look like
On a call with reporters this morning to discuss his new paper “Death of a Theory” (about which more later), James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, made some helpful comments about the new rate projections that the Fed will publish at its next meeting. I quoted him in support of rate forecasts in February last year which was well ahead of the game. Today he said: Read more
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Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS
Michael Steen, Frankfurt bureau chief, covers the ECB and the eurozone's economies. He joined the Financial Times in 2007 as Amsterdam correspondent and later worked as a front page news editor in London. Before joining the FT, he spent nine years as a correspondent at Reuters, mostly in foreign postings that included a previous stint in Frankfurt, as well as Moscow, Kiev and central Asia. He read German and Russian at Cambridge.RSS
Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS
Ralph Atkins, capital markets editor, has been writing for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. From 2004 to 2012, Ralph was Frankfurt bureau chief, watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies. He has also worked in Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS
Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS
