Tag: jackson hole

Robin Harding Bernanke, minutes, speeches

September 1, 2011 8:44 am by Robin Harding

I wrote one of the more aggressive reports on Ben Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole, saying he “hinted” that the Fed will do more to support the US economy, but qualifying that by noting that he avoided the emphatic language of his 2010 speech and offered no discussion of the Fed’s easing options.

Quite a number of analysts found no such hint in the text and it would have been better – although not very practical for a Saturday newspaper – to say that he showed an easing bias.

What is interesting now is to go back and read the speech in light of subsequent FOMC-speak and the minutes of the August meeting.

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Posted in Federal Reserve |

Robin Harding A calibrated Bernanke in Jackson Hole

August 26, 2011 3:43 pm by Robin Harding

The monetary policy parts of Ben Bernanke’s 2011 speech in Jackson Hole read as a carefully calibrated attempt to aim off his 2010 speech, and send a signal that the Fed is willing to do more, but that the scope for further action is less than it was a year ago.

The main statement of the Fed’s willingness to act is:

“The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.”

Compare that with the 2010 equivalent:

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Robin Harding Jackson Hole 2011: Rodrik

August 26, 2011 3:30 pm by Robin Harding

The first paper of Jackson Hole 2011, by Harvard economist Dani Rodrik, is about economic convergence. It’s a neat and very accessible summary of recent research by Mr Rodrik, his collaborators and colleagues about the vexed question of why poor countries do not catch up with the rich. There’s a lot in there, but here’s a brief summary of some of the most interesting and original points.

Gaps between rich and poor countries are as high as they’ve ever been, but before the financial crisis, they’d started to come down

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Posted in Federal Reserve |

Bernanke: little reassurance

August 27, 2010 5:02 pm by Emma Saunders

“Central bankers alone cannot solve the world’s economic problems,” Ben Bernanke said today in a speech that – had it not been so carefully phrased – would have been guilty of wilful optimism.

Stripping out the padding, for example, we can pull together one logical sequence from his speech:

Fiscal impetus and the inventory cycle can drive recovery only temporarily. For a sustained expansion to take hold, growth in private final demand–notably, consumer spending and business fixed investment–must ultimately take the lead… The prospects for household spending depend to a significant extent on how the jobs situation evolves… Incoming data on the labor market have remained disappointing.

And as for prospects for a revival next year, Bernanke’s assertion is quite damning in its timidity:

Despite the weaker data seen recently, the preconditions for a pickup in growth in 2011 appear to remain in place.

So, the necessary (but not sufficient) conditions for growth currently in place do not appear to be getting any worse for next year. Well phew.

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Ralph Atkins Trichet and the Jackson Hole vibes

August 27, 2010 2:00 pm by Ralph Atkins

Just a few months ago, Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank’s president, would have felt some trepidation about spending a weekend with US counterparts. Back then, Europe’s debt crisis was troubling the world, and Washington was piling pressure on European policymakers to take firm action to stabilise the crisis.

Today, it will be a more confident Mr Trichet who addresses the central bankers’ summit in Jackson Hole, in the US. In Germany, where the ECB is headquartered, the economy is powering ahead, with scant signs of anything more than a modest slowdown after an exceptional second quarter performance. Eurozone prospects overall have brightened as a result. For the global economy, a slowdown has been factored in – but a dangerous “double dip” is not foreseen.

Instead – at least from a European point of view - the onus is now on US policymakers to address the weaknesses in its economy. No doubt, Mr Trichet will be as charming as ever, but his perspective is different to that of his US hosts.

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Posted in European Central Bank, Federal Reserve |

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Chris Giles Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS

Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief, has been writing about European economics and politics for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. He has been watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies since 2004. He has previously worked in London, Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS

Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS

Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS

James Politi is US economics and trade correspondent for the Financial Times, based in Washington DC. He joined the Washington bureau in January 2008 following four and a half years as US deals correspondent covering M&A and private equity. James Politi joined the FT in London in 2000 with an MSc at the London School of Economics, and undergraduate degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Florence. RSS

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