The New York Fed has published the agenda and opening remarks of its annual meeting with its bond dealers for the first time. Brian Sack, manager of the System Open Market Account, ran dealers through the Fed’s recent policy moves: Read more
In June last year, the Bank of New Zealand issued the country’s first covered bond – securities backed, for example, by mortgage payments. (So the bank, receiving loan payments, in turn issues debt, receiving cash for that and allowing them to lend more.) Seven months later, the central bank has already seen fit to limit issuance of these bonds to 10 per cent of a bank’s total assets.
The practice allows a bank to increase leverage. The popularity of this and similar leveraging techniques in the US and Europe has been blamed for difficulties faced during the credit crisis. Complex interdependencies are created by reselling debt, repackaging it or simply issuing new debt on the basis of cashflow from other debt. Read more
I was watching a segment on the Federal Reserve on CNBC television earlier today, and a couple of times the guests on the show referred to the resumption of quantitative easing as Ben Bernanke’s “bazooka”.
And that brought me way back to the summer of 2008 – when then treasury secretary Hank Paulson sought authority from Congress to bailout Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the huge mortgage giants, if necessary. Mr Paulson argued that if markets knew the government would rescue the companies, that would be sufficient to restore confidence, and a bail-out would not be necessary. But the opposite occurred, and little more than a month later, Fannie and Freddie were in conservatorship.
Back to Mr Bernanke. Read more
There was about a 50-50 chance that the Federal Reserve would take the course it chose today with the decision to reinvest proceeds from expiring mortgage-backed securities – a level of uncertainty over the outcome of a Fed meeting not seen in months.
For Ben Bernanke, this probably marked his trickiest day in the office since being confirmed to a second term as chairman in January. And Mr Bernanke certainly delivered on his reputation for being an able consensus-builder. Read more
Perhaps to offset rumours of further easing, the Fed has announced further trial runs of a key tightening tool.
The New York Fed will test one of its main liquidity-draining tools by conducting a “series of small-scale, real-value reverse repurchase transactions” with primary dealers et al. This repeats and expands upon a similar set of tests announced in October and run in December. Read more
Goldman Sachs economists have been among the more bearish forecasters on Wall Street, seeing an incredibly sluggish recovery with inflation falling close to zero and unemployment hovering around 10 per cent through the end of next year.
So last night, they released a 32-page paper taking their view to its most logical conclusion. If they ran the Federal Reserve, they might well be contemplating further policy accommodation. “In the short term our model combined with GS economic projections implies that further macroeconomic easing would be optimal to counter stubbornly high unemployment and falling inflation. With the funds rate already at zero bound, additional stimulus would need to come through fiscal easing and/or renewed asset purchases.”
The GS paper goes on to say, to no great surprise, that if the additional easing is carried out on the fiscal side, “it should be paired with legislation that brings the federal budget back onto a sustainable path via a combination of spending cuts and tax increases.”
Instead, if the focus is on asset purchases, GS warns that the Fed would have to be “realistic” about the outcome, since there is a potential problem of diminishing returns. Read more
Even though many economists have pushed back their expectations of the first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the debate rages on about the tools the central bank should eventually use to tighten monetary policy.
In a research paper out today, Glenn Rudebusch, senior vice-president at the San Francisco Fed, makes a compelling case for not rushing to shrink the Fed’s $2,300bn-plus balance sheet, a move that some more hawkish officials have been pushing for early in the tightening cycle in order to contain inflation.
Overall, Mr Rudebusch concludes that since many predict the US economy will take “years” to return to full employment and inflation will stay low, it will take “a significant amount of time” for the Fed to exit from its current easy money monetary policy stance.
But some of his most interesting points Read more
Today’s Fed minutes offered some crunchy details on the debate within the US central bank over asset sales. And it looks like Ben Bernanke is winning the argument.
Months ago the Fed chairman said the central bank should consider selling the $1,000bn-plus portfolio mortgage-backed securities and agency debt accumulated during the recession, but only after the recovery was entrenched and monetary policy tightening had begun. Read more
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate in the US fell this week to a five month low of 4.93 per cent, according to Freddie Mac.
Mortgage rates had spiked above 5.20 per cent early last month, just after the Federal Reserve ended its $1.250bn plan hatched during the financial crisis to purchase mortgage-backed securities and support the housing market. Read more
Most of our interview on Saturday with James Bullard, president of the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank, was focused on his stance on the financial reform bill, which he seems quite exercised about.
But left on the cutting room floor were some of his observations on last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which he attended. Read more