For the fourth time in less than six months, China has raised rates. The quarter point increase leaves the one-year deposit rate at 3.25 per cent and the one-year lending rate at 6.31 per cent, each a percentage point higher than October of last year. Inflation rose to 4.9 per cent in the year to February, driven higher by food price inflation.
Other tightening measures are being gradually but regularly applied, notably the reserve requirement, which has been raised seven times since October and now stands at 20 per cent for large banks, following the most recent increase in mid-March.
Hong Kong’s yuan market is set to receive a boost from China’s central bank. The People’s Bank of China plans to raise the territory’s yuan clearing rate and is considering an increase in deposit rate, too, Reuters reports. Rates in Hong Kong are significantly lower than they are on the mainland, and unnamed sources quoted by the news agency say the planned moves are unlikely to align rates in one step.
An increase in deposit rates would encourage companies to leave yuan in Hong Kong rather than sending them back to the mainland. Analysts also expect an increase in the supply of yuan bonds as investors hope for higher yields on forthcoming issues. From Reuters:
Interest rates are back in vogue at the People’s Bank: the concern over capital inflows shouldn’t reduce the case for using them, governor Zhou has said. He also said that raising banks’ reserve requirements, which reduces the amount available to lend, is a liquidity management tool that cannot necessarily replace other monetary tools. China has raised rates three times since October last year and raised the reserve requirement five times. There has been a relatively long gap since the last monetary tweak, on February 18.
These pro-interest rate comments are courtesy of SocGen research, taken from the PBoC press conference at China’s annual plenary session of the National People’s Congress.
A tightening measure was about due in China: it’s been 25 days since the last one, against an average of 17 days since October.
The People’s Bank of China just increased rates by a quarter of a point, which raises the one-year deposit rate to 3 per cent and the one-year lending rate to 6.06 per cent. The last move to stem inflation and mop up excess liquidity was a raise in reserve requirements on January 14. MPC member Li Daokui said at that time a rate rise was likely in the first quarter and indeed spoke of an “intensive adjustment” in this period. The raise is effective tomorrow.
Inflation might have risen to 6 per cent in January, Bloomberg reports from analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets. In December, it rose to 4.6 per cent. The economy grew by 9.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, faster than the pace in the previous three months. See below for a history of China’s tightening:
China’s biggest banks will need to place 19 per cent of their deposits with their central bank from December 20. The People’s Bank of China has raised the depository reserve requirement by 50bp for the third time in five weeks, and the sixth time this year. Presumably – though this is not detailed in the release – the reserve requirement for China’s small- and medium- sized banks will be 17 per cent.
No reason was given for the move, which will mop up excess cash in the system and dampen inflation. An alternative tightening move – to raise interest rates – has not been taken since October 20. The last two reserve-requirement raises were effective November 16 and 29.
Monetary tightening in China just sped up. The Chinese central bank has just announced another 50bp increase in the deposit reserve ratio – which will happen at the end of November. The previous hike on November 10 was also 50bp and was expected to remove about $45bn liquidity from the Chinese economy.
Presumably – though this is not detailed in the release – the new reserve ratios will be: 18.5 per cent for six largest banks; 18 per cent for other large banks; and 16 per cent for small- and medium- sized banks. China is also raising rates – a 25bp hike took place a month ago and there have been further rumours since then and today in the markets (though perhaps the reserve increase will substitute).
Chinese equities have plummeted on rumours that the People’s Bank of China plans to raise rates again to combat inflation, which came in at 4.4 per cent for October. Consumer prices rose substantially during the month – the annual rate was just 3.6 per cent in September.
The Shanghai Composite lost more than 5 per cent, with financial services and resource sectors hit particularly hard and dozens of stocks falling by their 10 per cent daily limit.
More on that China rumour (which is no longer a rumour). The People’s Bank does plan to raise the deposit reserve requirement by 50bp, broadening and making permanent a temporary measure introduced almost exactly a month ago. The move, which takes effect on November 16, is expected to reduce liquidity by $45bn.
Back then, the measure affected six large commercial banks for two months. Four of those six banks will now see their deposit reserve requirement ratio (ratio) rise to 18 per cent. Other large deposit-taking institutions will see their ratio rise to 17.5 per cent, while small- and medium- sized banks will have a ratio of 15.5 per cent.
Three rumours doing the rounds this morning. First, that China might be about to raise reserve requirements again. The People’s Bank of China will raise reserve requirements for “several” banks, including key lenders, by 50bp on Monday, Dow Jones newswires reports via AFP. Chinese prices rose significantly between August and September, with year-on-year consumer price inflation standing at 3.6 per cent in September. China has recently employed other tightening measures, such as raising a key interest rate by 25bp last week.
Second rumour: that the Bank of Japan’s contributions to the Treasury will be waived or reduced if the central bank incurs losses in its asset purchase programme. Nikkei English News reports, via Bloomberg, that finance minister Yoshihiko Noda may soon make an official announcement.
China’s central bank has signalled a shift toward rate normalisation, following its recent rate rise. The People’s Bank said it will “gradually guide monetary conditions back to the normal state while continuing the comparative loose monetary,” according to Xinhua. The remarks were made in the Bank’s third quarter Monetary Policy Implementation report released before the Fed meeting and not yet available in English.
China’s change in tone may usher in a new period of tightening, as inflationary pressures mount. The Fed’s decision to pump $600bn into the US economy will push down the dollar. Since the renminbi closely tracks the dollar, the Chinese currency will not be allowed to strengthen proportionately, and the extra money in the system will increase the supply of renminbi, adding to inflationary pressure.