Spanish banks could be €50bn short of new capital requirements, says Moody’s, revising its previous estimate of €17bn based on old requirements. This is roughly 5 per cent of Spanish GDP and considerably higher than the Spanish government’s estimate of €20bn.
Overall savings banks’ exposure to the real estate sector is €217bn, by Bank of Spain data. Of that, €100bn, or nearly half, is considered “problematic”. €28bn are under surveillance and considered risky; a further €28bn are more than 90 days past due; and €44bn are foreclosed. Problematic indeed. The most troubling sentence from the Moody’s report is that just 40 per cent of the €217bn loan exposure is collateralised by finished, completed housing:
Is Norway calling the bottom of global property markets? Its central bank has given approval for its oil-funded sovereign wealth fund to invest up to 5 per cent ($22bn) in the asset class. “Investments will principally be made in well-developed markets and within traditional types of real estate,” Finance Minister Sigbjoern Johnsen told Reuters. “We must be prepared for real estate prices to fluctuate a good deal.”
Norway has form calling turning points. Last year the fund was allowed to increase its proportion of equity holdings to 60 per cent. During that year, major indices rose about 50 per cent. The fund made 13.5 per cent in Q3 alone. I wonder if they’re planning to reduce the equity proportion now (Bloomberg).