William Cline and John Williamson of the Peterson Institute have updated their estimates of ‘fundamental equilibrium exchange rates’: an exceptionally valuable cheat sheet for working out which currencies are over and under valued. (In fact they have not updated the FEERs, just their estimates of over and under valuation). Read more
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Domestic inflation seems a much likelier explanation for the recent appreciation of the yuan than American pressure. Many commentators have referred to the Chinese “bowing to pressure” or otherwise implied that the authorities have – without apparent trigger – capitulated to Western pressure. A quick look at the timing suggests otherwise. China is in the middle of a tightening extravaganza, raising interest rates and reserve requirements to tackle inflation. A strengthening yuan can have exactly the same effect, by making imports cheaper. Timing is only circumstantial evidence, of course, but it is something.
Whether prompted by inflation or politics, the yuan continues to strengthen,
Yowkers. Interesting timing for Japan to go back into the FX markets and sell the yen for the
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