Will the Swiss National Bank lower the cap on the euro further in the new year? It might have to if it wants to keep companies in the country happy.
The SNB’s latest exchange rate survey, which the central bank compiles quarterly, shows that an even higher proportion of businesses are struggling despite the introduction of the cap at the beginning of September. Read more
“Absent significant shock, notably on the currency, the SNB should be in the position to start tightening the policy rate in the near term.” This from the IMF, as it raised its growth forecast for the Swiss economy to 2.4 per cent this year, after 2010 growth exceeded expectations. The Swiss National Bank has maintained a near zero rate since January 2009, officially targeting a three-month Swiss franc Libor rate of 0-0.75 per cent.
Mortgage lending standards should also be tackled with better regulation, says the IMF, arguing: “The development of lax lending standards in the mortgage market and increasing interest rate risk call for pre-emptive measures.” While a rate rise should work to reduce mortgage lending, its effects would be “limited”, so “concerns related to mortgage lending should be addressed by macro-prudential instruments.” Read more
For the first time since records began, core prices are falling in Switzerland. Core inflation, which excludes food, drinks, tobacco, seasonal products, energy and oil, recorded a 0.1 per cent drop during October, according to official data, the first fall since at least 1994. Swiss interest rates are expected to remain on hold into at least Q3 2011.
Consumer price inflation for the year was slightly below expectations, with prices rising 0.2 per cent year-on-year. The Swiss central bank has warned that overall inflation could also turn negative next year, but Citi analysts don’t think the country risks prolonged and harmful deflation: Read more
The Swiss National Bank may have suffered paper losses of up to SFr10bn (€7.5bn) from huge interventions in the currency markets to restrain the value of the franc.
The central bank is expected by market observers to report a big loss when it publishes second-quarter accounts in mid-August. Economists cannot make a precise forecast, as the SNB does not reveal when, or at what rates, it has sold francs and bought other currencies – mainly euros – in recent months. However, Martin Neff, chief economist of Credit Suisse, said: “It’s certain there will be a big loss.” Read more
Investors may wonder why the euro is not trading even lower given the almost universal bearish sentiment on the single currency. The answer could lie in Switzerland.
The Swiss National Bank shocked the market on Tuesday by announcing that, as a result of its intervention in the foreign exchange markets, its currency reserves leapt more than 50 per cent last month from $145.6bn in April to $261.9bn in May. Read more
Rumours and anecdotal evidence of a shift in Swiss currency policy have been backed up by the comments of a Swiss National Board member. Read more
Expect greater collaboration between the central bank and regulator in Switzerland. They have signed a memorandum of understanding saying they will work more closely together in future.
The two bodies worked more closely during the financial crisis, and fell in love found some common ground. Principal changes/ how it will work: Read more
Is the Swiss National Bank allowing its currency to appreciate?
It may be coincidence, but the three previous times we reported rumours of bank intervention in the forex markets, the level at which they appeared to intervene was about 0.684 EUR per CHF (1, 2, 3). Read more
The Swiss National Bank has issued a characteristic response to questions of market intervention to weaken the Swiss franc: “We’re not commenting on that,” a spokesman told Reuters. Some traders had reported market activity by the bank, although it’s not conclusive from the chart when compared to the spike last Tuesday, when similar rumours were reported.