Swiss business still suffering despite SNB cap
Will the Swiss National Bank lower the cap on the euro further in the new year? It might have to if it wants to keep companies in the country happy.
The SNB’s latest exchange rate survey, which the central bank compiles quarterly, shows that an even higher proportion of businesses are struggling despite the introduction of the cap at the beginning of September. Read more
“Absent significant shock, notably on the currency, the SNB should be in the position to start tightening the policy rate in the near term.” This from the IMF, as it raised its growth forecast for the Swiss economy to 2.4 per cent this year, after 2010 growth exceeded expectations. The Swiss National Bank has maintained a near zero rate since January 2009, officially targeting a three-month Swiss franc Libor rate of 0-0.75 per cent.
Mortgage lending standards should also be tackled with better regulation, says the IMF, arguing: “The development of lax lending standards in the mortgage market and increasing interest rate risk call for pre-emptive measures.” While a rate rise should work to reduce mortgage lending, its effects would be “limited”, so “concerns related to mortgage lending should be addressed by macro-prudential instruments.” Read more
The Swiss National Bank no longer accepts Ireland’s government bonds as eligible collateral in its repo operations. It’s probably not earth-shaking for holders of Irish government bonds, following earlier margin calls on these assets by LCH.Clearnet last year. On the other hand, it’s an interesting window into how at least one European central bank is taking care over its collateral, unlike a few others we could mention.
Modifications to the SNB’s collateral baskets over the last year emerge in this little spreadsheet (Excel file). Several other Irish-domiciled assets also became nicht Repo-fähig in late December 2010, around the time Ireland lost its last AA- credit rating. Anglo Irish medium-term notes, Depfa bonds, etc.
The SNB’s eligible collateral criteria require that securities posted for repo have this AA- rating and that their country of domicile also bears the same rating, which seems open and shut. Until you read that the bank can make exceptions for sovereign securities rated below AA-.
For the first time since records began, core prices are falling in Switzerland. Core inflation, which excludes food, drinks, tobacco, seasonal products, energy and oil, recorded a 0.1 per cent drop during October, according to official data, the first fall since at least 1994. Swiss interest rates are expected to remain on hold into at least Q3 2011.
Consumer price inflation for the year was slightly below expectations, with prices rising 0.2 per cent year-on-year. The Swiss central bank has warned that overall inflation could also turn negative next year, but Citi analysts don’t think the country risks prolonged and harmful deflation: Read more
The Swiss National Bank may have suffered paper losses of up to SFr10bn (€7.5bn) from huge interventions in the currency markets to restrain the value of the franc.
The central bank is expected by market observers to report a big loss when it publishes second-quarter accounts in mid-August. Economists cannot make a precise forecast, as the SNB does not reveal when, or at what rates, it has sold francs and bought other currencies – mainly euros – in recent months. However, Martin Neff, chief economist of Credit Suisse, said: “It’s certain there will be a big loss.” Read more
Investors may wonder why the euro is not trading even lower given the almost universal bearish sentiment on the single currency. The answer could lie in Switzerland.
The Swiss National Bank shocked the market on Tuesday by announcing that, as a result of its intervention in the foreign exchange markets, its currency reserves leapt more than 50 per cent last month from $145.6bn in April to $261.9bn in May. Read more
Rumours and anecdotal evidence of a shift in Swiss currency policy have been backed up by the comments of a Swiss National Board member. Read more
Expect greater collaboration between the central bank and regulator in Switzerland. They have signed a memorandum of understanding saying they will work more closely together in future.
The two bodies worked more closely during the financial crisis, and fell in love found some common ground. Principal changes/ how it will work: Read more
The Swiss National Bank has issued a characteristic response to questions of market intervention to weaken the Swiss franc: “We’re not commenting on that,” a spokesman told Reuters. Some traders had reported market activity by the bank, although it’s not conclusive from the chart when compared to the spike last Tuesday, when similar rumours were reported. Read more
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Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS
Michael Steen, Frankfurt bureau chief, covers the ECB and the eurozone's economies. He joined the Financial Times in 2007 as Amsterdam correspondent and later worked as a front page news editor in London. Before joining the FT, he spent nine years as a correspondent at Reuters, mostly in foreign postings that included a previous stint in Frankfurt, as well as Moscow, Kiev and central Asia. He read German and Russian at Cambridge.RSS
Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS
Ralph Atkins, capital markets editor, has been writing for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. From 2004 to 2012, Ralph was Frankfurt bureau chief, watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies. He has also worked in Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS
Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS
Is the Swiss National Bank allowing its currency to appreciate?
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