tankan

Claire Jones

Our week ahead email helps you track the most important events in central banking. To see all of our emails and alerts visit www.ft.com/nbe

FOMC meeting

The highlight of next week’s calendar is Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Here’s the FT’s US economics editor Robin Harding on what to expect:  Read more

The Bank of Japan is set to increase its growth forecast to above 2 per cent, unnamed sources have told Reuters. The Bank’s forecast is currently 1.8 per cent for the fiscal year, and the next rate setting meeting is July 14-15.

The Bank would be playing catch-up with the government, if it does revise its forecast up. The finance ministry changed its growth forecast from 1.4 to 2.6 per cent last month. Private economists have apparently settled on a figure close to 2.4 per cent. Uncertainty about the economic recovery is likely to temper the Bank’s optimism, which was fuelled yesterday by a better-than-expected manufacturers’ confidence survey. Read more

Robin Harding

On Japan’s Tankan business survey Capital Economics note that:

…large companies say they plan to reduce capital spending by 0.4 per cent in the fiscal year which started today (in line with consensus and the smallest decline in a March Tankan since FY 2007). These estimates are usually revised higher during the year so this small fall will probably turn into a decent increase. Read more

Robin Harding

Japan’s quarterly Tankan is one of the best bits of economic data in the world: how many other business surveys cover 11,528 companies with a 98.7 per cent response rate?

It’s fascinating to look a bit beyond the main diffusion index for large corporations, which has risen from -23 in December to -14 in March. The diffusion index measures the number of businesses saying that conditions are ‘favourable’ minus the number saying they are ‘unfavourable’. Read more