The declines in the prices of bonds and many risk assets since the Fed’s policy announcements last week have followed a sharp rise in the market’s expected path for US short rates in 2014 and 2015. This seems to have come as surprise to some Fed officials, who thought that their decision to taper the speed of balance sheet expansion in the next 12 months, subject to certain economic conditions, would be seen as entirely separate from their thinking on the path for short rates. Events in the past week have shown that this separation between the balance sheet and short rates has not yet been accepted by the markets.
The FOMC under Chairman Bernanke has worked very hard on its forward policy guidance, so there is probably some frustration that the markets have “misunderstood” the Fed’s intentions. Richard Fisher, the President of the Dallas Fed, said that “big money does organise itself somewhat like feral hogs”, suggesting that markets were deliberately trying to “break the Fed” by creating enough market turbulence to force the FOMC to continue its asset purchases. Read more
(1) There is no need to panic. After the purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing came in below 50 on Monday there was some cause to worry about the health of the economy – but the rise in the services PMI, from 53.1 in April to 53.7, suggests that consumer demand is still there.
One of the benefits of the European Central Bank’s new household finance and consumption survey is that it allows eurozone household data to be compared with that of the US, since the surveys use comparable methodologies.
The survey already caused something of a stir in Germany earlier this week because it appeared to show that the typical Cypriot household was better off than the typical German one. (In 2010, anyway, and subject to a lot of caveats and nuance, summarised in the story.)
Today’s ECB monthly bulletin also picks over some of the data in the HFCS and highlights this ability to compare data with the US Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances. One interesting tidbit it points out is quite how much wealth distribution differs between the US and (the euro-wielding corner of) Europe. Read more
Don Kohn, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, has just apologised for his errors in the financial crisis in front of the UK Treasury Select Committee, the equivalent of a Congressional committee.
He said he had “learnt quite a few lessons – unfortunately” from the financial crisis, including that people in markets can get excessively relaxed about risk, that risks are not distributed evenly throughout the financial system, that incentives matter even more than he thought and transparency is more important than he thought. Similar to Alan Greenspan’s mea culpa of 2008:
“I made a mistake in presuming that the self interest of organisations, specifically banks and others, was such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders”.
Mr Kohn told MPs Read more
Rates are held, as expected, and QE2 is expected to continue till June. But all eyes will be on Bernanke for any signals of change at the new press conference (see video). For live blog commentary, see Gavyn Davies‘ real time post or his earlier thoughts.
The US lacks a “credible strategy” to stabilise its mounting public debt, posing a small but significant risk of a new global economic crisis, says the International Monetary Fund.
In an unusually stern rebuke to its largest shareholder, the IMF said the US was the only advanced economy to be increasing its underlying budget deficit in 2011, at a time when its economy was growing fast enough to reduce borrowing. The latest warning on the deficit was delivered as Barack Obama, the US president, is becoming increasingly engaged in the debate over ways to curb America’s mounting debt. Read more
I’ve been off helping in our Tokyo bureau for ten days so time to catch up on the Fed news.
The March FOMC meeting
The committee took the opportunity to do a substantial rewrite of the first two pars of its statement, which made sense, as it was starting to get pinned down by fear that any change would be seen as a signal of early changes to QE2.
The main effect of the rewrite is to focus the statement on the danger of high headline inflation – but make clear that the FOMC expects it “to be transitory”. I’m a touch surprised by the transitory line given that some members of the committee are clearly concerned that it will be otherwise. Read more
…is starting to look quite convincing.
No stress tests for ages, then they all come along at once.
Some banks are set to raise their dividends imminently in the US, once the Fed gives them the green light ahead of detailed stress test results released in secret next month. Another practice put on hold in 2009 – share buybacks – will also be back on the menu for some of the 19 large banks. Only those groups that wanted to increase dividends or share buy-backs, or repay government capital, received a call from the Fed on Friday. Those receiving good news will no doubt act swiftly: any of these activities will presumably be seen as a public badge of honour, in the absence of results publication.
Europe, meanwhile, does intend to publish results. Arguably the target audience for Europe’s stress tests is investors and markets rather than the banks themselves. This might give the unfortunate impression that policymakers are aiming for the appearance of a healthy banking sector rather than the real thing. Read more