Monthly Archives: August 2013

Oil prices are up to $115 a barrel for Brent crude on the basis of market fears that western governments will not be able to limit their involvement in Syria to a few missile strikes shot from warships located safely offshore and that the Sunni-Shia conflict will spread across the Middle East. The forward market is suggesting that spot prices will go even higher.

Maybe. The western involvement certainly looks ill-prepared and lacking in strategic purpose. The response to what is happening in Syria from the US, in particular, reminds me of the impotent response of the dying Ottoman regime to the gradual collapse of its empire across the Middle East in the years before the first world war. Read more

It is always a pleasure to have a good laugh. I am, therefore, grateful to the Scottish National party for announcing their new energy policy. Read more

According to reports in the Daily Telegraph, the Energy Department is blocking publication of a serious and detailed study of the impact of wind farms across the UK. This exposes the tip of an iceberg. At least a dozen major reports on energy policy issues, in many cases commissioned at considerable expense from external consultants, are being kept secret because of their inconvenient findings. It is time for a change of culture in WhitehallRead more

You have to feel very sorry for the vast majority of the companies who make up the world’s nuclear power industry. Westinghouse, CANDU, EDF and many others have all run overwhelmingly safe operations free of accidents for many many years. The companies have extended the lives of existing plant and spent tens of millions on plans for new capacity – in the US, the UK, Russia and some parts of the developing world. In many of these countries, the old fears of nuclear power had been tempered or removed. Even parts of the green lobby had embraced nuclear as part of the solution to climate change.

But now all that progress is once again vulnerable to the weakest link. Tepco. Read more

Robert Mugabe has “won” another election in Zimbabwe. In plain English for “won” read “stolen”. The people of Zimbabwe are condemned it seems to suffer under dictatorial rule for even longer. The conventional wisdom is twofold. First, that there is nothing to be done, short of a full scale invasion – something no one has the stomach for. And secondly that things will get better when Mr Mugabe, now 89, finally passes on. I would challenge both statements.

The chances that Mr Mugabe’s death or incapacity will be followed by a transition to a normal pluralist democracy are slim. The current regime is not totally dependent on him. The ruling party and the cadre around them are well entrenched and clearly doing very well out of the country’s natural resource and mineral wealth, even if very little of the money stays in Zimbabwe. Mr Mugabe’s successor could easily be a military or security chief who is part of this ruling clique. Those in power may have too much to lose to give up easily. Read more