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An anti-shale protest in the Algerian Sahara  © Getty Images

The 50 per cent fall in oil prices over the last year is beginning to have a serious impact across the world. Rig rates are down in the US and production of tight oil produced through fracking is beginning to fall. Corporate profits and share prices are down. The private sector generally, however, is remarkably resilient. Costs can be cut, new projects postponed and if things get worse dividends can be reduced. By contrast many of the countries that have come to depend on high prices have little room for adjustment. A few, like Saudi Arabia, still hold vast cash reserves and can tolerate the loss of revenue for several years. Others are trapped and particularly vulnerable because the lack of income compounds all the other problems they face. One of the most vulnerable is Algeria. Read more

British Government Signs A Deal For New Nuclear Power Plant

EDF's existing nuclear power plants at Hinkley Point  © Getty Images

The announcement that some form of funding structure for Britain’s nuclear new build at Hinkley Point in Somerset has been agreed must be read with care. UK consumers and taxpayers are not allowed to see the whole agreement — that privilege is restricted to the French and Chinese governments and their state-owned enterprises — but it is clear that this week’s statements do not amount to the final deal. Much remains to be negotiated, with the UK at a considerable disadvantage because of its all too evident desperation to complete a deal.

Much attention has focused on the relationship between the UK and China, on the cyber security risks of allowing the Chinese to own, construct and operate a plant of their own in the UK and on the political consequences of the deal for George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer who is now known to the black humorists of Whitehall as the Manchurian Candidate. The other, and potentially more serious, issue is what the announcement and the further delay it implies means for UK energy policy. Read more

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The potential impact of climate change is beginning to get serious attention beyond specialist climate scientists. Last week at the Ecole Militaire in Paris — the elite college for the French defence forces — military and civilian leaders debated the risks and the defence and security implications at a seminar organised jointly by the French Senate and the defence ministry. Three ministers, including those of foreign affairs and defence, led the debate.

Many of the risks are well known — such as the possibility of desertification in particular regions, of water shortages leading to inadequate harvests and a lack of food supplies and on the other hand the prospect of floods or sudden surges in temperature; and the risk of diseases and epidemics spread by dirty water. The problems are concentrated in areas such as Africa, where climate change will compound existing problems such as inadequate healthcare, poverty and weak governments. Read more

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Penetration of electricity into new areas – such as cars – is still low  © Getty Images

Renewables are taking a growing share of the energy business. In 2014, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency, they accounted for more than 45 per cent of all the new electricity generating capacity added worldwide. Over the next five years the prediction is that they will supply more than half of all new capacity. By 2020 renewables should be providing over 26 per cent of global electricity supplies. They will enhance energy security and reduce emissions. They will also reshape the energy business creating both winners and losers. Read more

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Iranians protest against Saudi Arabia after the hajj stampede  © Getty Images

Oil prices are now 50 per cent lower than they were a year ago, and less than 40 per cent of their peak in 2012. Worldwide, there is a continuing surplus of supply over demand of around 2.5m to 3m barrels a day. This is despite the loss of exports from Libya and two bloody wars – the first against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) in Syria and Iraq, the another against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Those two wars, which do not directly affect any significant oil producing areas, are proxy conflicts for the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Now, however, there is a growing risk of open war between Riyadh and Tehran. Oil facilities and exports would inevitably be primary targets and in those circumstances a price spike would be unavoidable. The question is whether such an escalation can be prevented.

Relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran have never been close. The conflict is partly religious, partly economic and territorial. Both want to be the clear regional leader. In recent months relations have deteriorated. The latest trigger is the death of 767 Islamic pilgrims at the annual hajj in Mecca. The dead included an estimated 169 Iranians. Since the tragedy – caused by a stampede at a bottleneck as about 2m took part in the journey – Iran’s leaders have used the event as a stick to beat the Saudi authorities in general and the royal family in Riyadh in particular. The failure of the Saudis to return the dead Iranians to their own country has provoked an unspecific commitment of “retaliation” from Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The heightened language indicates the tension that pervades the region. The situation is comparable to Europe in the months before the first world war, and equally dangerous. Read more

Protesters Take To Kayaks To Demonstrate Against Shell's Plans To Drill In Arctic

Protesters approach Shell's Polar Pioneer oil drilling rig in May  © Getty Images

Shell’s decision to abandon exploration in the Arctic is an acknowledgment of reality, although that makes it no more comfortable for those involved. Some $7bn (more, according to some estimates) has been lost in its Chukchi Sea campaign — the unsuccessful Burger J well must be the most expensive ever drilled, anywhere in the world. But, financially, Shell can afford it, and many in the oil company will be relieved that the issue is out of the way.

The exploration effort was a PR disaster for a company that prides itself on its environmental record. The prospect of success, followed by years of conflict over the next steps — the development of permanent facilities for actual production — worried some senior executives more than the prospect of failure. The possibility of facing up to a new US president in the person of Hillary Clinton who is on record as opposing Arctic drilling was hardly welcome for a company that believes itself distinct from companies such as ExxonMobil that take a more challenging line on climate change and other issues. These reputational issues were no doubt very important elements in the decision to pull out. Read more

The energy business is entirely familiar with the concept of stranded assets. Now, however, a new concept has been introduced: the idea that some assets, specifically hydrocarbons, will inevitably be stranded and left undeveloped as the world reduces its hydrocarbon consumption in order to avoid the risks of climate change. The question is whether investors and companies should be worried by that concept. Read more

Tamar, The Natural Gas Production Platform Off The Israeli Coast, Is To Begin It's Natural Gas Production

Drilling in the Tamar field in the Levant Basin  © Getty Images

Eni’s announcement that it has made a world-scale gas discovery off the Egyptian coast is undoubtedly good news both for the Italian company and for Egypt, even if the hype and the over-optimistic timetable that some are talking about need to be balanced by some consideration of the challenges still be to be resolved. But the discovery should have an even wider impact because it confirms the view that the Nile and Levant basins are the most prospective, underexplored areas in the world.

The discovery, named Zohr, is said to hold some 30tn cubic feet of gas, which if confirmed, would put in the list of the 20 largest gas fields across the world. Read more

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Construction at EDF's EPR project in Flamanville, France  © Getty Images

Strong and capable energy ministers are rare but the UK government appears to have found one in the person of Andrea Leadsom. Ms Leadsom is nominally the Minister of State in the Department of Energy and Climate Change (ie the number 2) but that is a detail. She is not crippled by self-doubt and initially hesitated for many hours before taking the job. Perhaps energy did not seem important enough. Perhaps number 2 was the wrong number.

Unsurprisingly, however, she has rapidly mastered the brief and appears to be finding that the subject is more interesting and the policy issues more complex and important than she had imagined. The question now is whether she can use her authority to force a better bargain for energy consumers by negotiating a new and improved deal with the owners of the long-planned and much-postponed Hinkley Point nuclear power station. Read more

Electricians Work On Transmission Tower In Chuzhou

Electricians work on a transmission tower In Chuzhou, China  © Getty Images

The energy market has many dimensions – from the ever volatile oil price to the environmental challenges of climate change. It is worth remembering, however, that for one person in six worldwide energy is a matter of subsistence and survival. The only energy to which they have access is wood or dung collected by hand. With electricity or any of the other sources of heat, light and mobility which we take for granted they are unable to improve their circumstances because without energy there can be no agriculture, no trade and no education. Read more

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Oil sprays from a well at Tuba oil field in Iraq  © Getty Images

Oil is now clearly a cyclical commodity that is in a period of over-supply. According to recent commentaries from the International Energy Agency, the excess of production over consumption was as much as 3m barrels a day in the second quarter of this year, which is why prices have fallen. The question for producers, consumers and investors is: how long will it be before the cycle turns back up?

The initial caveat, of course, is that the “normal” oil market could be overturned by political decisions at any time. The Saudis, instead of greedily trying to maximise their market share and imposing huge losses on others, could decide that the stability of the region, and of their own kingdom, would be better served by cutting production and settling for a new equilibrium. There is a chance of that, as I wrote a couple of weeks ago, and the Saudis are under huge pressure from other Opec members but there is a mood of rigid arrogance in Riyadh which suggests that the necessary climb down will not come easily. What follows assumes that King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and his son the deputy crown prince stick to their current policy.

What then drives the cycle ? Read more

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For investors who thought the situation in the oil sector could not get worse, the last few weeks have come as a bad surprise. In the US, West Texas Intermediate prices have slipped below $40 a barrel and on Monday Brent crude fell below $44. There is no obvious sign yet that the bottom of the cycle has been reached and the latest negative data from China adds further downward pressure. The next casualty of the falling price will be corporate dividends.

Much attention has been paid to the implications of lower oil prices on countries such as Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria which depend for the bulk of their national income on oil. For them, the economic and political implications are serious. As we saw at the end of the 1980s, not just in the former Soviet Union but also in Opec states such as Algeria, a heavy fall in prices undermines the social contract between governing elites and the wider population. Both those countries look vulnerable now, as do a range of others including Angola, Brazil and Nigeria. In all those cases the impact of a price fall compounds existing problems. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that one or more of these nations will see a regime change before the end of the year. Read more

Scottish Windfarm Starts Producing Electricity

The Braes of Doune windfarm, Scotland   © Getty Images

Organisations, especially those that are doing well, can easily get stuck on narrow views of the future and their own role within it. It can be useful and creative in those circumstances to give people the opportunity to think more widely. One method that I have seen used to great effect is to ask people to imagine the world in 10 years’ time and suggest what might have changed, particularly against the expectations of the conventional wisdom. The process can provide a useful counterweight to long-term forecasts, which tend to do no more than roll forward recent history.

In that spirit, and for the holidays, here are a few stories on the energy sector from the FT in 2025. These are not forecasts — just possibilities. Readers would be welcome to suggest additions to the list.

1. In Moscow, ShellGaz — the world’s largest energy company as measured by its listing on the FTNikkei 250 — announces that it is proceeding with Eaststream3, the latest in a series of export projects from eastern Siberia. Eaststream3 will take gas by pipeline to the rapidly growing cities of northern India. ShellGaz was formed in 2017 through the merger of Royal Dutch Shell and Gazprom and represented the first fruit of the reset of European-Russian relations after the agreed federalisation of Ukraine. Read more

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Of Saudi Arabia Visits Jordan

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visiting Jordan this month  © Getty Images

With the latest analysis from the International Energy Agency showing that oil production capacity continues to rise despite the sharp fall in prices, is Saudi Arabia ready to admit that its strategy of over-production designed to force other producers out of the market has failed?

Over the last year, Saudi Arabia has been pursuing what Frank Gardner, the BBC’s security correspondent, described last week as a policy of flexing its muscles – both in the region and in the oil market. The policy is obviously failing. The question now is whether the kingdom will keep going, doubling down on its current approach, or will step back and change course. The second option would involve a significant loss of face for the new king and his favourite son. The costs of simply ploughing on, however, could be much worse. The outcome will shape the future of the region and of the international oil market. Read more

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President Vladimir Putin  © Getty Images

With oil prices back down to $50 a barrel for Brent crude, a falling gas price and its share of the European energy market declining, the Russian economy is in real trouble. The situation is dangerous because the problems cannot easily be corrected. The risk is that the economic problems could lead to political instability both within Russia and around its borders.

Anyone wanting to understand the historical context for what is happening in Russia should read Restless Empire a newly published book written around a series of maps which take go back to the emergence of the Slavs some 5000 years BC. The book, edited by the late Ian Barnes who sadly died before publication, is beautifully presented and free of the biased commentary so often associated with histories of Russia. The maps in particular are fine examples of immaculate design applied to the presentation of complex data. I only wish there were more maps, and in particular more on the production and trade in energy that dominates the modern Russian economy. Read more

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Loading coal at a port in Yichang, in central China's Hubei province  © Getty Images

Casual readers of the media coverage of the energy business could be forgiven for getting the impression that the coal industry is on its last legs. “Coal is dying and it’s never coming back”; “King Coal’s stages of grief”; “The noose tightening on the coal industry”. Those are typical headlines from the past few weeks. The coal industry, it would seem, is being rapidly destroyed by the combination of public policies on climate change and carbon emissions and by the development of a range of alternative energy supplies – from shale gas to solar. This sense of an industry in decline is reinforced by the rhetoric of the campaigns advocating disinvestment from fossil fuels in general and coal in particular. If you have Oxford University, Michael Bloomberg and the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund against you what hope can there be? The impression of an industry in terminal decline does not, however, quite reflect the reality. Reports of the death of coal owe more to wishful thinking than to any analysis of what is actually happening. Read more

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The Chinese economy is clearly going through its most serious downturn in more than 30 years. After three decades of continuous growth averaging more than 8 per cent per annum, the problems of industrial over capacity and excessive debt are starting to take their toll. The stock market volatility of the last few weeks is a symptom of the bubble that has been allowed to develope in recent years and of the doubts that are now setting in about the sustainability of high growth. The more serious problem, as the published data is now showing, lies in the real economy and in the accumulated and now unfundable debts that have financed booms in sectors such as housing construction and urban property development. Read more

Shell's Polar Pioneer arrives in Seattle

Shell's Polar Pioneer arrives in Seattle

Great companies become and stay great by taking big bets. The art of betting is, of course, about understanding the odds and being prepared and able to lose if it comes to it. Every big company in the world has been through that process — the only difference in the oil and gas industry is that the numbers are bigger. The general rule of betting in the corporate world is not to put at risk more than 10 per cent of the total business. For the biggest, that leaves plenty of scope.

So there is nothing wrong in principle with taking big bets. What is, puzzling, though is when a company with a record of deep caution stretching back to the second world war makes a series of bets that all run contrary to the conventional wisdom. The company concerned is Shell, which in the past few months has placed three huge betsRead more

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Politicians and policy makers can only focus on one problem at a time. With all attention concentrated on Greece for the past month there is a real danger that an even greater problem is developing, almost unnoticed, in Ukraine. The economy there is in deep trouble. A further collapse, perhaps triggered by a debt default, could lead to an outflow of refugees that would make the problem of migrants crossing the Mediterranean look trivial. Energy is at the heart of the crisis but could just possibly be part of the solution.

The basic story is well known. Since the Maidan demonstrations in November 2013, the Ukrainian economy has shrunk. A 5 per cent fall last year is variously forecast to be followed by a contraction of between 5 and 10 per cent in 2015. Investment has ground to a halt and in the energy sector big potential projects such as the shale gas developments planned by Shell and Chevron have been halted. The fighting in the east has cut off coal supplies to the rest of the country from the 300 mines in the Donbass region. The Russian annexation of Crimea has cut off gas supplies from the developments managed by Chernomorneftegaz in the Black Sea. Ukraine, as a result, has become even more dependent on imports of coal and gas from South Africa, Australia, other parts of Europe and even ironically from Russia. These supplies do not come cheap and in many cases suppliers will only do business if they are paid in advance and in hard currency. Read more

Political Leaders Meet As Greece Crisis Intensifies

Sigmar Gabriel and Angela Merkel  © Getty Images

Last week’s decision on the future of the German energy policy by Sigmar Gabriel — the economics minister and Angela Merkel’s number two and would-be successor — was complicated and multifaceted. The net result, however, is simple. The German coal industry will survive and coal will remain a major, and probably the largest, fuel source for power generation for another decade and perhaps longer. Read more