Environment

Applications closed last week for the chairmanship of the UK’s Environment Agency. Lord Smith of Finsbury, much criticised by some ministers during the recent floods, has not been sacked but has reached the end of his term. The appointment of a successor is important for the energy sector, and many others, but what happens next will also a test of whether public appointments in the UK have been politicised. Has meritocracy been abandoned? Read more

Do renewables represent the future of the energy business or a minor contributor in a sector which will continue to be dominated by hydrocarbons? That will the underlying question at the FT Renewables conference this week. The answer looks to be the latter but financial engineering or a major technical breakthrough could yet change things. Read more

Can anyone really predict what the world’s energy market will look like in 2040? Many certainly try – including companies and governments – but they don’t deserve to be taken too seriously and certainly shouldn’t be the basis for decision-making. Read more

Congratulations to Ben van Beurden, the new chief executive of Shell. We are moving into a period when gas is the dominant fuel and Mr van Beurden has great experience in that area, particularly in liquefied natural gas. He is also Dutch which is a good reminder that despite everything Shell has not lost its nationality, after all. The candidates who lost will all soon find alternative jobs. Shell is now the great training ground and there is a shortage of talent at the top level in the international energy business. Mr van Beurden meantime will have to focus on Shell’s big problems, of which I will focus on three. Read more

US oil rig. Getty Images

I have always been sceptical of the extensive theories of peak oil built around the study first published in 1956 by M King Hubbert. Those studies have always seemed to ignore the reality of technical progress that opens new frontiers and reduces costs. They have been much used to support the idea that oil prices should be ever increasing, on the basis that scarcity should be reflected in high prices.

The reality is that oil provinces (think of the North Sea) keep going well beyond their original schedule, and recovery rates from established fields keep rising. On average, even after some advances in reservoir management technology, only some 50 per cent of the oil in place is recovered from most fields, so there is a long way still to go. On top of that, we now have tight oil (the oil equivalent of shale gas), which BP in its latest Long Term Outlook now expects to provide some 9 per cent of global production in 2030. Read more