Gas

A week after the EU and the IMF announced their bail out plan for Cyprus, it is now clear how little consideration was given to the knock on implications of the proposals. Even if they are never implemented, the ideas put forward might change the behaviour of those with funds in banks across southern Europe. But the proposals will have still wider implications – not least for Europe’s energy security.

The Russian reaction to the proposed bank deposit levy had been predictably furious. Surely someone in Brussels or Berlin could have foreseen what would happen? Did no-one realise that a good proportion of the Russian money in Cyprus belonged to people rather close to the Kremlin? Read more

The controversial bailout deal for Cyprus proposed by eurozone finance ministers has led President Nicos Anastasiades to promise investors who stay in the country after the compulsory forfeit of 9.9 per cent of their deposits that they will share in the country’s future wealth from natural gas.

In return for the forfeit they will be given shares in the banks and what are described in press reports as ” equity returns, guaranteed by future natural gas revenues”. Read more

The rumours that Vladimir Putin is about to replace Aleksey Miller as the chief executive of Gazprom continue to swirl around the markets across Europe. As usual it is hard to know what is true and what is dreamt up by Mr Miller’s enemies. Removing Mr Miller would not, however, solve Gazprom’s problems. What the company really needs is a new strategy. What should it be. ? Read more

US oil rig. Getty Images

I have always been sceptical of the extensive theories of peak oil built around the study first published in 1956 by M King Hubbert. Those studies have always seemed to ignore the reality of technical progress that opens new frontiers and reduces costs. They have been much used to support the idea that oil prices should be ever increasing, on the basis that scarcity should be reflected in high prices.

The reality is that oil provinces (think of the North Sea) keep going well beyond their original schedule, and recovery rates from established fields keep rising. On average, even after some advances in reservoir management technology, only some 50 per cent of the oil in place is recovered from most fields, so there is a long way still to go. On top of that, we now have tight oil (the oil equivalent of shale gas), which BP in its latest Long Term Outlook now expects to provide some 9 per cent of global production in 2030. Read more

Oil refinery. Getty Images

The energy market is moving on two very different tracks. Oil prices are stubbornly high and gas prices are low, especially in the US, and look set to fall further across the world. The question is when, if ever, will these two tracks meet?

Let’s start with why the oil price at $114 a barrel for Brent remains so high. There is no physical shortage and demand growth worldwide is minimal. The answer lies in fear of what might happen next. The threat of an open conflict between Israel and Iran may have receded but there are enough uncertainties in the market to keep people nervous. Libya is out of control because of the limited international support for the new government following last year’s military intervention by France and Britain. There is continued nervousness about events in Algeria after the terrorist attack last month and concern about the negative effect on investment of the renewed outbreaks of violence in Iraq. Read more