Oil

Later this week the management of Royal Dutch Shell will finally explain why it has issued a profits warning only 12 weeks after its last formal statement to the market. Investors are waiting for a full and detailed presentation on Thursday. Anything less will reinforce the impression that there is a governance problem which has left top management and directors out of touch with the operations of the business.

Profit warnings are serious things, which means this is quite different from the normal public relations tactic of shovelling all the problems on to the back of an outgoing chief executive, and giving his successor a low baseline from which performance can only improve. Surely a company as serious as Shell is not playing that game? Read more

The fact that the Arab spring did not produce a sudden transformation of the Middle East and north Africa into fully functioning pluralist secular democracies is hardly surprising. Expectations on that front were very naive. But the wave of change is beginning to transform something else – the border lines which were drawn a hundred years ago as the spoils of the Ottoman Empire were divided among the allies. The process will be long and painful but out of it will come new countries. Outsiders including investors may not be able to determine the outcome but they cannot ignore what is happening or simply cling to the past. New realities have to be recognised and Libya is as good a place to start as any. Read more

One of the more regrettable conclusions from 2013 is that the Arctic cannot and will not be preserved and kept pristine from the process of economic development. The resource base is too substantial, the opportunity too tempting. As in the Garden of Eden the apple cannot be left untouched. Development is starting and will continue. The next question is whether it can be managed properly. Read more

Let us start with two questions. Which of the following energy companies is planning to sell assets next year – Shell, ExxonMobil, BP, Total, Statoil, ENI? Answer – all of them. Which of those companies is planning to cut capital expenditure in 2014? Answer – all of them, with the sole exception of Exxon which is planning a modest increase. If you extend the list of companies the answers are the same.

Taken together these answers reveal some interesting points about the oil and gas industry. Most companies now feel they have been over investing – either by doing too much or by allowing costs to rise out of control. Returns have not matched the growth in spending. Shareholders are restive. Asset sales are normal business – every big company builds up a tail of marginal, non-strategic assets. But the scale of current plans goes beyond that. The tail has gone and the assets for sale now are in most cases attractive commercial propositions. Read more

Ukraine, to coin a phrase, is a far way country of which we know little. Its geographic misfortune is to be the buffer state between western Europe and Russia. With all eyes on Iran, too little attention is being paid to the fact that Ukraine is being forced back under the control of the Kremlin.

This week’s events send a very negative signal to western investors who had hoped to develop Ukraine’s extensive shale gas resources both for local use and for export to other parts of eastern and central Europe. The assertion of Russian power over President Viktor Yanukovich and Prime Minister Mykola Azarov will also send a shiver across the other former Soviet satellite states in eastern Europe. Some, like Poland and Romania, are safely within the EU. Many others are not, to say nothing of the major energy producers around the Caspian Sea, such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Read more