Is the North Sea doomed to enter a period of terminal decline once the current set of field developments is completed? Or can strong leadership from the UK’s new Oil and Gas Authority and radical thinking take it into a successful fifth decade? The answer is unclear but should be a matter of real concern to the UK Treasury and the Scottish government as well as to the companies directly involved and their staff.
Most of the facts are clear and undisputed.
For the moment production volumes are being sustained by virtue of projects sanctioned before oil prices started to fall in 2014. That should continue through to 2017. But the pipeline of activity beyond that is drying up. New exploration, in particular, has dwindled to minimal levels. It would be surprising if more than half a dozen exploration wells are drilled this year. Read more