William Hague (L) and Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen unveil the logo of the Nato Wales' summit (JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images)

The unveiling of the Nato Wales' summit logo (AFP/Getty)

In ten days time Nato’s leaders will gather in Wales for their bi-annual summit. There is certainly plenty to discuss at Celtic Manor – Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan and of course the continued inadequacy of defence spending which is leaving the military in many countries unable to fulfill all their stated commitments.

But tucked away in one bland paragraph of the draft communiqué now being circulated is a brief reference to energy security. Let’s hope there is substance behind the words.

Energy policy remains strictly a matter for national governments but the risks arise from the fact that many countries are dependent on imports for large proportions of their daily supplies. Forty years ago the risk came from the growth of oil imports and a reliance on Opec suppliers. Now the risk is an interruption of natural gas supplies. Gas has become progressively more important as a source for electricity production and for heating. The US and Canada are well supplied thanks to the development of shale gas, but Europe is not. Indigenous production in the UK and Dutch sectors of the North Sea has fallen sharply and Europe has slipped into a position where 70 per cent of its daily imports of gas come from RussiaRead more

China's Jiang Jemin, the CEO of CNPC and Tony Hayward of BP smile after signing a major oil deal with Iraq in 2009 (AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images)

Happier days: China's Jiang Jemin, the chief executive of China National Petroleum Corporation, and BP's Tony Hayward, signing a major oil deal with Iraq in 2009 (AFP/Getty Images)

One of the ironies of the current chaotic situation in the Middle East is that a country that could arguably be at risk of losing the most is standing aside.

While the US and some European powers agonise over whether – and how – they should intervene to prevent the disintegration of Iraq, China is absent. But China needs Iraqi oil in growing volumes. The country’s import dependence for crude and products now stands at 8m barrels a day and is rising. According to the latest International Energy Agency estimates, Chinese imports could be well over 11mbd by 2030. That is on modest assumptions about economic growth and generous assumptions about gains in efficiency and substitution out of oil, in sectors where a switch is possible. The figure could be higher if China cannot increase its own production.

The only country in the world likely to be able to provide such an increase in production is Iraq, and it is no accident that China is heavily invested in the development of fields such as Rumaila and West Qurna outside Basra in the South. On the Iraqi government’s own figures, China is the largest foreign investor in the country’s oil sector. As US oil consumption and import requirements decline, energy security has become a Chinese issue. Read more

Flames from a gas well 40km north of the Qatari capital Doha (KARIM SAHIB/AFP/Getty Images)

Flames from a gas well 40km north of the Qatari capital Doha (KARIM SAHIB/AFP/Getty Images)

Global trade in liquefied natural gas has doubled over the last decade and looks set to overtake pipeline gas trade before 2020. LNG is the only viable way of supplying most of the growing requirements of China and India, and the most obvious way of diversifying European supplies away from dependence on Russia. The growth in trade, however, also puts the spotlight on the sources of supply. Central to everything is the tiny Middle Eastern emirate of QatarRead more

An Egyptian protester waves the national flag. MAHMUD KHALED/AFP/Getty Images

A protester waves the Egyptian flag (Getty)

After a decade of introspection, Europe is being forced to confront the instability on its borders, particularly to the east and the south.

At least five deeply troubled states – Mali, Libya, Syria, Iraq and Ukraine – pose a diverse series of threats ranging from a flood of refugees to the radicalisation of individuals and terrorism, to the disruption of energy supplies.

The problems in each of the five could spread to other states and regions – including Lebanon, Algeria and the Balkans. But further problems could be yet to come, if the list of unstable countries is extended to include Egypt. The risk is very serious.

A casual observer would be forgiven for thinking that Egypt has been stabilised by the election of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the removal from government of the Muslim Brotherhood. The outcome may not be exactly what was hoped for when the protesters gathered in Tahrir Square in Cairo three and a half years ago, but there is order in the streets. Unfortunately that is not the full story. Egypt is financially broke and dangerously dependent on the insecure generosity of the Gulf states. The risk of violence has killed the tourist industry, which was a major source of revenue and employment. Living standards have fallen and Egypt now faces a profound crisis with a shortage of energy, water and food. Read more

Last week I wrote about the forthcoming independence referendum in Kurdistan. To move from events there to what is happening in Scotland is a surreal experience. In Erbil the vote will be a deadly serious matter which could create a new country for a nation which as they say has no friends but the mountains having been a victim of international betrayal and cynicism for centuries. There is no knowing whether the Kurdish referendum will end in triumph or tragedy. In Edinburgh what should be an equally serious debate about breaking the relationship with the rest of the UK is now close to a farce. Read more

Flying east over the mountains into the new international airport of Erbil, the administrative capital of Kurdistan, you are conscious of entering history. Times past – how many wars just have been fought around the citadel in Erbil – one of the oldest known settlements in continuous occupation in the world – over its 5,000 year history? But also current history because what is happening in Erbil now could reshape not just Iraq but the rest of the Middle East. And, almost incidentally, the world oil market. Read more

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Why are renewables moving so slowly? Of course the output of renewable energy is growing in absolute terms and in terms of market share in most countries in the world. But the growth starts from a very low base. On the International Energy Agency’s latest numbers, renewables provide just 13 per cent of total global energy needs at the moment, and will provide only 18 per cent by 2035. If traditional biomass is excluded the figures are 7 per cent and 14 per cent.

The problem is cost. Electricity produced from offshore wind and solar costs somewhere between 50 and 100 per cent more per MW/hr than power from natural gas and, with some variations, will continue to do so for the next decade unless one makes the assumption that gas prices are going to increase. Onshore wind is cheaper and in the US in particular is the closest of all the renewables to being competitive without subsidies. Read more

Storms ahead? Photo by Getty

Spare a thought on this bright summer’s day for two men struggling to reconcile truth and political reality.

Oliver Letwin, Cabinet Office Minister in the UK government and Jo Johnson MP, head of the No 10 policy unit, have the task of writing the first draft of the Tory Party’s manifesto for the election next May. The manifesto will have to include something on energy policy.

Both Mr Johnson and Mr Letwin are decent men who can generally be relied upon to speak and act honestly and honourably. That is where their problems begin. On energy policy how can they tell the truth about a policy which by common consent – among business, academics and the serious NGOs – is a costly failure? Read more

France has a new energy policy. Although some saw the statement presented for debate in the National Assembly ten days ago as simply political rhetoric designed to draw green support behind the Government, beyond the fine words and long term aspirations some of the tough immediate steps being taken suggest that the shift could be more serious. If so the statement will mark the beginning of a gradual but inexorable run down of the French nuclear business. Read more

The debate on European energy policy which will come to a head at the EU summit later this week is focused on building new infrastructure and diversifying sources of supply especially of gas. Both are sensible steps but there is a third strand of policy which could help achieve each of the three objectives which are shaping policy – the desire for energy security, the drive to reduce costs to protect competitiveness and the aim of reducing emissions in support of the campaign against global warming. We should just use less.

Efficiency is the neglected Cinderella of the policy world. It should be top of the agenda and backed by fiscal and regulatory measures to force the necessary changes in behaviour. Read more

Premier Li Keqiang of China is due in the UK this week. Despite all the challenges and potential disagreements there is scope for much closer cooperation around joint work on big issues. Energy should be at the heart of the discussion. Read more

By common agreement the situation in Iraq is dangerous and deteriorating. By similar common agreement there is no appetite for international intervention to do anything about it. Neither the US or Europe or anyone else will be sending forces into the besieged cities Mosul or Kirkuk. After more than a decade of unsuccessful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is no public or political support for engagement anywhere – not in Syria, Libya or now in northern Iraq. Though totally understandable, I think this is profoundly wrong and very dangerous. Read more

A 220-page document entitled “Commission Staff Working Document: In-depth study of European Energy Security” is hardly designed to be a best-seller. Few outside Brussels will read the European Commission paper in full, which is a pity because it is an excellent piece of work. It also provides the basis for a series of proposals contained in an accompanying document, which if accepted and carried through could create a common energy policy for the EU comparable in scale, scope and cost to the Common Agricultural PolicyRead more

Photo by Sanjay Kanojia/AFP/Getty Images

Imagine being elected prime minister of a country with one and a quarter billion people, about 300m of whom live in absolute poverty. That is the challenge facing Narendra Modi in India. The hardest question must be to know where to start.

When it comes to energy Mr Modi’s first acts have been encouraging. He has set a high but achievable target for the installation of solar, on and off the grid, building on his experience in the state of Gujarat. He has also forced together three key ministries – covering power, coal and renewables – under a new minister, Piyush Goyal. He should probably have gone further and added petroleum and natural gas as well. Structural change in the complex bureaucracy of the Indian government matters a lot. Read more

The decline of North Sea oil and gas production continues. The trend is now a problem not just for the Scottish Nationalists but also for the UK Treasury and the 450,000 people who work in North Sea related businesses. The deplorable thing is that the decline is unnecessary and could be halted. Read more

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Many revolutions fail. They run out of ammunition or leaders or popular support. We hear a lot about the revolutions which succeed. History is written by the winners. But we hear much less about the failures – the promises of change which don’t materialise. Read more

For a long time it has looked as if the large-scale gas finds in the eastern Mediterranean would be stranded. The Leviathan field, located 80 miles off Haifa in Israel, which holds some 16tn cubic feet of gas was discovered five years ago but remains undeveloped and is not even completely defined. Israel has enough gas for its own needs from the smaller Tamar field, and politics and economics have combined to deter any of the wider development options. Now though a new option is emerging which makes development much more likely. The gas can be sent to Egypt. The move is rich in irony but it makes commercial and political sense. It could also mark an important moment of change in relationships across the region. Read more

A pro-Kremlin rally in St Petersburg. OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP/Getty Images

The conventional wisdom is simple – business and politics are two separate worlds, which should not mix. Corporate leaders should not be involved in anything that smacks of political activity. Business exists to make money not policy.

That is the mantra – and it is wrong. In two weeks time the St Petersburg International Economic Forum is due to meet. Business leaders should be there and should have the nerve to tell Vladimir Putin what he doesn’t want to hear.

The St Petersburg forum is President Putin’s answer to Davos – a prestige event designed to show that Russia is a key part of the global economy. As the FT reported last Friday, the US government does not want business leaders to attend. Valerie Jarrett, Mr Obama’s adviser, has been calling CEOs telling them not to go, as part of the process of demonstrating that after what has happened in Ukraine, Russia is isolated and friendless. Many are taking her “advice”. In Europe the position is more ambivalent. European sanctions on Russia are soft and the rhetoric from Berlin and Brussels even softer. Many European leaders seem to regard Ukraine as Russia’s sphere of influence. There is little appetite for bringing the country into either the EU or Nato. In contrast to Russia, Ukraine cannot afford to employ the lobbying skills of Gerhard Schröder and his ilk. Read more

Energy storage has long been regarded as something close to a holy grail. Of course, there are ways of storing some forms of energy – using pumped water or compressed air for instance. There are conventional batteries – and there have been advances in their capacity over the last few years. But the search for storage systems which are simultaneously economic and practical for use at scale in the modern energy market has long been a source of frustration.

Recent advances made by scientists in the US suggest, however, that real progress is now being made and that major breakthroughs are close. The whole of the energy sector should be watching because any such breakthrough could transform the economics of the whole industry. Read more

Week by week Scotland seems to slip away. The reaction to the fiasco at the CBI demonstrates just how sensitive business is to involvement in politics. But the future of the United Kingdom is a matter on which business should have a strong and clear voice. In its absence the momentum behind the cause of independence will grow. Read more