The UK plan is uneconomic for owners and consumers, writes Nick Butler Read more
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The UK plan is uneconomic for owners and consumers, writes Nick Butler Read more
The announcement that some form of funding structure for Britain’s nuclear new build at Hinkley Point in Somerset has been agreed must be read with care. UK consumers and taxpayers are not allowed to see the whole agreement — that privilege is restricted to the French and Chinese governments and their state-owned enterprises — but it is clear that this week’s statements do not amount to the final deal. Much remains to be negotiated, with the UK at a considerable disadvantage because of its all too evident desperation to complete a deal.
Much attention has focused on the relationship between the UK and China, on the cyber security risks of allowing the Chinese to own, construct and operate a plant of their own in the UK and on the political consequences of the deal for George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer who is now known to the black humorists of Whitehall as the Manchurian Candidate. The other, and potentially more serious, issue is what the announcement and the further delay it implies means for UK energy policy. Read more
Strong and capable energy ministers are rare but the UK government appears to have found one in the person of Andrea Leadsom. Ms Leadsom is nominally the Minister of State in the Department of Energy and Climate Change (ie the number 2) but that is a detail. She is not crippled by self-doubt and initially hesitated for many hours before taking the job. Perhaps energy did not seem important enough. Perhaps number 2 was the wrong number.
Unsurprisingly, however, she has rapidly mastered the brief and appears to be finding that the subject is more interesting and the policy issues more complex and important than she had imagined. The question now is whether she can use her authority to force a better bargain for energy consumers by negotiating a new and improved deal with the owners of the long-planned and much-postponed Hinkley Point nuclear power station. Read more
Within the next few weeks the Japanese utility Kyushu Electric Power will restart its two nuclear power reactors at Sandei in the Kagoshima prefecture in the far south of the country. Fuel loading is set to begin July and the plants should be onstream again in August. After four years of crisis and much legal and political debate, the Japanese nuclear industry is finally on the way back. The implications for the rest of the energy sector in Asia and across the world are significant.
The two reactors at Sandei have been closed since 2011. From a nuclear fleet of 50 reactors capable of producing some 47 GW of electricity and supplying over 30 per cent of Japan’s daily electricity needs at the beginning of 2011, the sector’s output shrank to zero in the months following the Fukushima disaster. At Fukushima itself six reactors have been closed and are being decommissioned. The rest of Japan’s nuclear fleet stands cold and unused. Gradually, however, the negative mood of 2011 has abated. Now the operators of 24 different reactors across the country have applied for permission to reopen with the full and very active co-operation of the Japanese state and the powerful industrial lobbies such as the Kaidanren and the Keizai Doyukai. Read more
“I am convinced that the nuclear industry has a future, that it is a strength of our country.” The fact that Manuel Valls, the prime minister, had to make such a statement in the National Assembly in Paris two weeks ago is a dramatic indication of the depths of the problems the nuclear sector in France is facing. Read more
The election is over and against all expectations we have a clear result. When it comes to energy policy, however, the agenda will be set not by what the Conservative party has promised in its manifesto but by external events. A number of looming issues are already obvious and the government will have no control over most of them.
The first is the further postponement of the plans for nuclear development starting at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Two new reactors capable of supplying some 7 per cent of total UK electricity demand are planned. The first was originally supposed to be on stream in time to cook Christmas dinner in 2017. But despite the prospect of a lavish price — index linked for 35 years regardless of what happens to global energy prices – and £10bn of even more generous financial guarantees, funding for the investment required is not in place. The reluctance of investors to commit will not be helped by the technical problems in the reactor vessels, which are now under investigation by the French nuclear regulator. This problem has widespread implications for the companies involved (Areva and EDF) and for nuclear development in many countries across the world, starting with France itself. Read more
2015 will be a crucial year for the nuclear industry across the world. Japan is expected to start bringing its nuclear reactors back on stream — four years after the Fukushima disaster. Elsewhere, a dozen different countries are considering whether or not to commit to new plants, with the decisions further complicated by the fall in the price of competing fuels such as coal and natural gas. Much depends on what happens in the UK, where the progress of proposed new developments will signal whether nuclear can be competitive as a long term source of energy. Read more
How far will the French government go in selling off some of its extensive portfolio of assets? In its last budget, the government said it would sell up to €4bn in shareholdings to raise money to pay down debt, or to invest in other companies. This could foreseeably include selling off parts of the government’s stakes in energy companies such as GDF Suez and EDF. But more may be necessary.
The ongoing conflict with the European Union over France’s persistent deficit, which according to the finance minister Michel Sapin cannot now be closed before 2017, is damaging France’s reputation as well as the all important relationship with Berlin. Some action is needed to buy German acceptance of a new timetable. Selling assets in itself would not solve the problem but could reduce debt levels and produce much needed revenue. As a concept, however, privatisation is still considered toxic in France. The terms of any sale will have to reflect these political constraints.
Any Brit commenting on France has to be careful after the childish abuse from Andy Street, the managing director (for the moment) of retailer John Lewis. France has its problems, as any Frenchman will tell you, but it is not “finished” or a country where “nothing works and nobody cares”. Mr Street should visit the thriving areas of the South West. He should remember that France, supposedly so hostile to globalisation, has 31 companies in the latest Fortune 500 listing against 28 each from Germany and the ultra-global UK. I hope that the Franco British Council, the Colloque and the other institutions that have laboured for years to build good relations with France are evidence that Mr Street speaks for no-one but himself. Read more
The EU approval of the nuclear development at Hinkley Point marks an important, if not decisive, chapter in the story of new nuclear in the UK. There are still legal challenges to be overcome and a financing package to be finalised within the constraints set by the EU ruling but this is a good moment to identify winners and losers.
The obvious losers are the UK’s consumers who are trapped into paying a price for electricity that is double the current wholesale price for 35 years after the plant starts up. The deal will go down in history, alongside the privatisation of the Royal Mail, as an example of the inability of the British government – ministers and civil servants alike – to negotiate complex commercial deals. The phrase “rolled over” will enter the French language and be accompanied always with a Gallic smile. Still, one should recognise talent and so chapeau to the French negotiators. Read more
The Chinese, as reported by my colleague Guy Chazan, are in talks with EDF on sharing the costs of building the new nuclear plant at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Their price is an unspecified “degree of control”. The Russian company Rosatom announced a couple of weeks ago that it was considering joining the game with the aim of building future nuclear stations in the UK. Perhaps we should be grateful that such nice people have taken an interest in the UK’s energy needs. But before we roll over in gratitude perhaps we should consider the links between energy and security. Read more
Nearly. That was my summary of the state of negotiations between the UK government and EDF on new nuclear last month. Nearly but not quite as comments by Ed Davey over the past week make clear. The government had hoped to make a positive announcement before the summer but it is now looking at the prospect of more months of further talks. A deal, intended by ministers in London to represent a final offer, was put on the table four weeks ago. EDF in Paris, where all the energy company’s decisions are made, has failed to respond.
Frustrated by the unwillingness of EDF to engage, the government, which wanted to do a deal and thought an agreement was possible after the last Anglo-French summit in May, has now effectively stepped back and is talking to other possible suppliers. Read more
As the FT reported on Friday, negotiations on the terms for new nuclear have advanced and there is increasing optimism that a deal can be done. The meeting between David Cameron and Francois Hollande in Paris two weeks ago amounted to a declaration of agreement in principle. Just three issues remain to be resolved. Read more
Behind the continuing negotiations on new nuclear in the UK one big question remains unanswered. Who is going to pay? Senior officials are concerned that the pressure to close a deal is undermining a sensible negotiating strategy by separating the terms – including the strike price and the issues of risk allocation – from the question of funding.
To grasp what is happening you have to understand the degree of desperation which now exists in Government to deliver growth. Growth is the justification of the whole economic strategy and of course the solution to the challenge of rising borrowing. Growth is seen as the only platform from which either coalition party can go back to the electorate. But growth is elusive and time is running out. Read more
Is it possible that while one Whitehall Department is constructing a “secret” crisis centre to deal with cyber attacks, another located less than a quarter of a mile away is preparing to sell part of the UK’s national infrastructure to the very people behind those attacks?
The establishment of a cyber security centre was reported by the FT last week. Anyone who doubts that its primary focus is the Chinese should read the report produced a couple of months ago by the specialist US consultancy Mandiant.
The company identified attacks originating in a building occupied by the General Staff Department of the People’s Liberation Army in Shanghai which had targeted 141 companies across 20 major industries. China has denied official involvement but has not yet agreed to stop the attacks.
Unfortunately no one seems to have mentioned these developments to Ed Davey, energy secretary, or EDF, the company which wants to develop new nuclear power stations in Britain. If the price and risk allocation for that deal is agreed, and Mr Davey has said that agreement is close, the next question is how the deal will be funded. EDF does not have the capacity to find the £14bn required and so has been looking to Chinese partners to provide much of the cash. Read more
Why is it proving so difficult to close the deal on new nuclear in Britain? In part, of course, there is the normal arm wrestling negotiation. This is focused on the so called “strike price” – an energy price below which the suppliers will get compensation from the state – and on the allocation of risk around a £14bn construction contract.
The UK government wants a strike price of around £65 to £70 per MWh which is high but probably politically defensible. They well remember that in 2008 EDF talked about a price of £45 per MWh. EDF now wants something between £95 and £100, but they can probably afford to accept the Government’s figure and still make a reasonable profit.
The allocation of the risks is even more important than the strike price. Unless the Government is careful it could end up pay enormous sums for capacity which is underused because cheaper supplies will be available to consumers. If the company gets it wrong, a bad deal would overhang its finances for decades. Read more
The negotiations between the UK government and EDF over the contract terms for new nuclear development continue. As well as a sizeable gap on the strike price there is also disagreement on the distribution of risks. In some ways this is just a normal negotiating process but behind the meetings and the attempts at news management are two questions.
The first is whether the UK really needs new nuclear. Read more
A new inquiry instigated by the French government into the international activities of the French nuclear industry poses a new challenge to the UK’s plans for a new generation of nuclear power stations. Further delay in reaching a final decision seems certain.
The formal inquiry, established just before the New Year, will be undertaken by the powerful Inspection Generale des Finances. The inquiry is sector wide and focused on potentially inappropriate transfers of protected technologies through the international partnerships developed by the nuclear companies. But according to the French press the inquiry is directed specifically at EDF and its relationships in China. Read more
Another European summit, and another step in the progressive disengagement of the UK from the core of Europe. I wonder if the UK government appreciates the impact of what is happening on the real world of business? Let’s take just one example. Relations between Britain and France are at a very low ebb. No one is throwing plates but there is now a mood of mutual indifference, which, as anyone who has lived through a bad marriage will tell you, is worse.
I was in Paris this week visiting the Banque de France. The Banque’s senior management were as ever exquisitely polite, but the sense of distance from the UK was unmistakeable.
Anglo-French relations are always complicated but the current round of problems really began with Franςois Hollande’s visit to London at the end of February. Mr Hollande was at that time a candidate rather than Le President de la Republique. He was clearly ahead in the polls and judged likely to win by the most experienced observers of the French scene. But Mr Cameron, usually a model of politeness when it comes to personal relations, refused to see him. Read more
The news that Hitachi has paid what seems a high price for the Horizon franchise to build new nuclear stations in the UK is good news for the industry. Hitachi has a strong balance sheet and a good technical record – untarnished by Japan’s Fukushima incident. The deal is a tribute to the Department of Energy and Climate Change officials involved and to Number 10′s strong support for the nuclear programme.
Now, only two questions remain. What price will UK consumers pay for nuclear generated power and who will fund EDF’s initial investment in Hinkley Point.
After a long and successful campaign to make nuclear power acceptable within the UK the companies involved in the industry seem to be jeopardising further progress by refusing to spell out the detailed costs of the new nuclear stations they want to build. Read more
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