EU

Russian energy minister Alexander Novak, EU energy commissioner Gunther Oettinger and Ukraine's energy minister Yuri Prodan sign an agreement on October 30 (EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images)

  © Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty

The deal announced on Friday between Russia, Ukraine and the EU looks to have removed the immediate risk of gas supplies to Ukraine being cut off over the winter. The EU and the IMF will underpin Ukrainian purchases with payment in advance. It is not clear from what has been published so far whether this deal will now become the norm for the future. As it stands for this year at least, the deal is mutually beneficial. The Russians, who need the money, will get paid. The Europeans, who have no wish for an open conflict, are able to buy their way out of trouble at least for the moment. But this is not the end of the story. While the short-term issue of energy supplies may have been resolved, the question of Ukraine’s longer term status has not. Read more

The dispute over Ukraine has moved into a diplomatic phase and for the moment at least the prospect of a Russian advance into eastern Ukraine has receded. The consequences of what happened in the Crimea, however, continue to shape European policy making. The invasion provided a sharp reminder of Europe’s reliance on Russian gas – a degree of dependence which the EU will now reduce even if a settlement is agreed by the diplomats. It is quite possible that within two or three years European gas imports from Russia could be halved. Russia would be reduced to being one supplier among many in a world where gas-to-gas competition inexorably reduces prices. Read more


The collapse of the European emissions system over the last few weeks is a serious indicator of the loss of interest in the issue of climate change among the top policy makers, especially in Germany. Unless the market can find a new credibility the whole structure of the European climate agenda looks vulnerable. Read more

A tanker is filled at a Gazprom refinery. Getty

Could the conflict between Gazprom and the European Union become the antitrust case of the decade?

The answer is yes and the argument is spelt out in an excellent paper just published by the Centre for European Policy Studies.

The case could not only make legal history and provide a very timely reminder that the EU is alive and kicking, it could also transform the international gas market, pushing on the fall in prices already underway and undermining to the point of extinction the linkage between the prices of crude oil and natural gas. Read more