gas prices

President Vladimir Putin

President Vladimir Putin  © Getty Images

Twenty years ago, a small group of Russian businessmen saved the country from a return to communism. Boris Yeltsin, physically and politically weak, was close to being beaten in the presidential election by Gennady Zyuganov. In the first ballot, Yeltsin led by just 3 per cent. The money and organisation the oligarchs brought to the party put him more than 13 points ahead in the second and decisive vote. Now, in very different circumstances, the oligarchs may need to intervene again.

Russia is in a parlous state. Real incomes have fallen by 10 per cent in just a year. The rouble depreciated 37 per cent and in real terms gross domestic product fell 3.7 per cent, according to World Bank figures. Household incomes and investment fell sharply. The trends have persisted into 2016. Forget the bluster of President Vladimir Putin and the military activities in Ukraine and Syria. What was once a superpower is now a country in decline. Read more

A gas storage facility outside Lviv, Ukraine

A gas storage facility outside Lviv, Ukraine  © Getty Images

Can anything reverse the decline of natural gas as a source of primary energy in Europe? Gas demand in 2015, despite a fractional uptick on the 2014 figure, was 20 per cent below the level reached a decade ago. Unless something changes radically, Europe has passed the point of peak gas consumption. The promise of “a golden age of gas” talked up by the industry and some commentators a few years ago looks very tarnished.

The reasons for this are obvious. In the absence of a carbon price, coal is cheap and in countries such as Germany it retains crucial political support because of the jobs it involves. Renewables are subsidised. So gas is squeezed, especially in the power sector because efficiency gains and slow economic growth have kept total electricity demand down. Read more

Hungarian engineer Miklos Sziva checks t

  © Getty Images

Markets are inherently prone to volatility. Prices and valuations do not proceed in an orderly and linear fashion. Most important of all, they do not proceed in one direction for very long. The aim of any serious investment strategy should be to call the turning points and buy or sell accordingly. The energy market is at such a turning point and it will be fascinating to see who has the nerve and confidence to invest.

To say that this is a time to buy may sound odd following the criticism of Shell’s purchase of BG Group, which was reluctantly nodded through by fund managers last week. The issue is that the BG deal was based on prices roughly two and a half times above the current level and depends on an incredible forecast of future price trends. The result: a pyrrhic victory for Shell. That mistake, however, does not mean that other potential buyers of energy assets should be put off. At current prices, the time to buy is now. That applies to oil and gas but in different ways the same conclusion can be drawn for almost every part of the energy sector. Read more

How do short term warnings of gas supply shortages, and a 50 per cent spike in same day delivery costs, sit with the general acceptance across the energy sector and government that gas will – and should be – the next big source of supply for power generation ? Read more

Oil refinery. Getty Images

The energy market is moving on two very different tracks. Oil prices are stubbornly high and gas prices are low, especially in the US, and look set to fall further across the world. The question is when, if ever, will these two tracks meet?

Let’s start with why the oil price at $114 a barrel for Brent remains so high. There is no physical shortage and demand growth worldwide is minimal. The answer lies in fear of what might happen next. The threat of an open conflict between Israel and Iran may have receded but there are enough uncertainties in the market to keep people nervous. Libya is out of control because of the limited international support for the new government following last year’s military intervention by France and Britain. There is continued nervousness about events in Algeria after the terrorist attack last month and concern about the negative effect on investment of the renewed outbreaks of violence in Iraq. Read more

Shares in EON have risen by 10 per cent over the last two weeks and have led a limited rally among Germany’s hard pressed utilities.  The deal reached after years of negotiation with Gazprom sets a precedent and puts a big question mark over the pricing structures and energy mix across the whole European electricity sector.

The scale of the price reduction has not been announced but was sufficient for EON to add over €1.5bn to their net profit forecast for this year.  The cut in prices is a reflection of reality.  European gas demand has been falling and supplies are plentiful.  In addition to continuing production from the North Sea , supplies from Russia, central Asia, north Africa, west Africa, Qatar and Trinidad are all competing to supply European consumers.

That is before counting any exports of gas from the US ( which are due to start in 2016 ) or any production from Europe’s extensive shale gas resources.

The reality of falling prices is a global phenomenon.   Read more