IEA

A wind turbine complex on the Zhemo Mountain in the outskirts of Dali, in China's southwestern province of Yunnan (LIU JIN/AFP/Getty Images)

A wind turbine complex on the Zhemo Mountain in the outskirts of Dali, in China's southwestern province of Yunnan © LIU JIN/AFP/Getty Images

The starting point for anyone wanting to understand how the world’s energy markets will develop over the next 20 years must be China. Companies, bankers, investors and those of us who try to follow the industry will have to shift our attention away from local circumstances in Europe or the US. What happens in both continents is interesting, but on the world scale it pales into insignificance. Even a very radical change in the European market — a real carbon price or a single common energy policy, or indeed the development of French and German shale gas — would be as nothing compared to the transformation that is coming, as China becomes the dominant force in every part of the energy business. Read more

Photo by Sanjay Kanojia/AFP/Getty Images

Imagine being elected prime minister of a country with one and a quarter billion people, about 300m of whom live in absolute poverty. That is the challenge facing Narendra Modi in India. The hardest question must be to know where to start.

When it comes to energy Mr Modi’s first acts have been encouraging. He has set a high but achievable target for the installation of solar, on and off the grid, building on his experience in the state of Gujarat. He has also forced together three key ministries – covering power, coal and renewables – under a new minister, Piyush Goyal. He should probably have gone further and added petroleum and natural gas as well. Structural change in the complex bureaucracy of the Indian government matters a lot. Read more

The world energy market now revolves around China. So does the climate change debate and any attempt to reduce emissions. According to the latest figures from the BP Statistical Review, the growth in China’s energy consumption last year amounted to more than the total annual consumption of the UK. Then there is a corporate dimension to China’s growing role in the global energy market. The Chinese are using their current economic strength to buy into European energy companies. How should Europe respond to all this? Read more

Images provided by NASA

Evidence from the American space agency NASA published at the end of July shows the remarkable and disturbing degree to which Greenland’s ice cap has melted.  Taken in combination with extreme weather conditions in the US and Asia over the last few months, what is happening in Greenland raises again the unresolved issue of climate change and what should be done to mitigate the associated risks.  But the traditional approach of gradually reducing emissions by changing the energy mix may no longer be a viable option. Read more

The new paper from the Belfer Center at Harvard on the prospect of sharply rising oil production over the next decade is a substantial and interesting piece of work.   The headlines, however, oversell the content.  America isn’t about to be self-sufficient in oil or to start exporting a surplus.  Around the world there is indeed plenty of oil but politics are likely to keep production well below the physical potential.

The report “Oil: The Next Revolution” by Leonardo Maugeri, is based on a detailed field by field analysis of the world’s oil resources. Read more