Robert Mugabe has “won” another election in Zimbabwe. In plain English for “won” read “stolen”. The people of Zimbabwe are condemned it seems to suffer under dictatorial rule for even longer. The conventional wisdom is twofold. First, that there is nothing to be done, short of a full scale invasion – something no one has the stomach for. And secondly that things will get better when Mr Mugabe, now 89, finally passes on. I would challenge both statements.
The chances that Mr Mugabe’s death or incapacity will be followed by a transition to a normal pluralist democracy are slim. The current regime is not totally dependent on him. The ruling party and the cadre around them are well entrenched and clearly doing very well out of the country’s natural resource and mineral wealth, even if very little of the money stays in Zimbabwe. Mr Mugabe’s successor could easily be a military or security chief who is part of this ruling clique. Those in power may have too much to lose to give up easily. Read more