In the comments to an earlier post on whether the Yes vote in the independence referendum is being exaggerated, JeanJacques writes:

“Everyone of these ‘institutional’ polling agencies predicted a Labour victory in Holyrood 2011. They have zero credibility.”

This is a notion whose ubiquity is inversely related to its accuracy. It is not true.

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Another thing one hears from Scottish opinion poll watchers is that there may be a version of the Shy Tory effect happening ahead of the independence referendum. This is another reason they give for why the Yes vote may lower than polls suggest.

Behind these results lies a theory: the “spiral of silence”. This is where an individual is reluctant to give his opinion because of what he perceives to be the views of a vocal majority, and where this reticence has a knock-on effect on others’ silence. (Hence the spiral.)

One paper on the subject lists three criteria for the spiral: (1) The issue must have a moral component to it; (2) There is a time factor or dynamic aspect of public opinion; (3) There is ubiquitous and consonant mass media coverage

Sound like any referendum you have heard about? Read more

“Why do opinion polls in Scotland vary so much?” asks Peter Kellner. It is an important question. An answer would give us a clue as to what will happen in the independence referendum. The president of YouGov is puzzled by the results from his and other polling companies. He produces this table by way of argument:

Mr Kellner has taken the past five or six polls from five of the main pollsters and calculated the average for the Yes vote. Next to that column he shows the range in the Yes vote across the five or six polls. Aside from ICM, these ranges are narrow.

He wants us to take two things from this table. First, that there has been very little movement in any of the individual polls since Christmas 2013. Second, that there is a curious difference between the results of YouGov and TNS, which place the Yes vote between 39-42, and Panelbase and Survation, which report higher totals. Read more

Not a single track has been laid for High Speed 2 and yet George Osborne is already talking about “High Speed 3″, an extension of the project to link Manchester and Leeds. In a speech on Monday in Manchester, the chancellor spoke of his support for a “Northern powerhouse”: a conurbation to rival London, connected by transport links such as HS3, and governed by independent mayors. It is an excellent idea.

Although there will be a temptation to see Mr Osborne’s speech as simply another part of the HS2 debate, that would be simplistic. It represents the coming together of different conceptions of the future for British cities – and as ever political necessities.


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One of the authors of this pair of books is a dyspeptic Scottish socialist prone to exaggeration. The other is Gordon Brown. He and Alasdair Gray have written works that argue for opposing sides in the debate on Scottish independence. The pro-union former prime minister and the secessionist novelist have different styles as well as arguments. Gray’s masterpiece Lanark (1981) won him comparisons with Dante and Joyce, whereas Brown’s prose is somewhat more straightforward. His new book begins: “I love my country. Simple as that.” Read more

Are we applying tougher criteria for what it means to be British? Data released on Tuesday by the British Social Attitudes Survey and NatCen suggest this is the case. It points to an increase in the number of people saying that others must speak English to be considered truly British. An article on the BSAS in the Times says that attitudes show a “hardening towards multiculturalism”. The BBC’s interpretation is similar. But before we decry the rise of little Englandism, let’s look closely at the data. This is particularly important given the ongoing, heated debate on “Britishness”.  Read more

Earlier this month, I was chatting about immigration with a supporter of the United Kingdom Independence party. He wanted less of it. I was much more sanguine. In response, he said, in a nicer way than it seems in writing: “You just don’t get it, do you?”. He explained why he felt the way he did – his perception that immigrants were responsible for rising crime in his home city of Lincoln and his worry that immigrants would hinder him from getting a job – and suggested that it was only natural that I would feel differently, since I came from London and had a nice job.

I mention this conversation in light of data released on Tuesday by the annual British Social Attitudes Survey, conducted by NatCen. In a chapter on immigration, Robert Ford and Anthony Heath disaggregate public opinion. The authors show the extent to which there is a stark divide between the average views of those with degrees, in professional jobs and/or live in London, and the rest of the country. “Elite” opinion is markedly different. This has important political implications.


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David Cameron is “a sphinx without a riddle”, who “bumbles from one shambles to another with no sense of purpose”. Nick Clegg is “a goner”. Ed Llewellyn, the prime minister’s chief of staff, is “a classic third-rate suck-up-kick-down sycophant presiding over a shambolic court”. Tell us what you really think, Dominic.

In an interview with the Times, Dominic Cummings, Michael Gove’s former special adviser provides piquant descriptions of people in and around No. 10, whom he says are blocking or slowing his ex-boss’s radical reforms to the English school system.

Mr Cummings is an intriguing character who wears his learning about as lightly as Cristiano Ronaldo wears Nike. But his views should be given a hearing and not only because he remains a vital influence on Mr Gove. Last year he published “Some Thoughts on Educational and Political Priorities”, a manifesto for what he calls an “Odyssean” education system. After a bumpy ride through cognitive science, complexity theory, genetics, mathematics and military strategy, and a detour into dystopian predictions, he arrives at something close to a conclusion: England’s schools must become much better if its children are to compete in the modern world. He says that this requires a savage attitude towards the structural bulwarks to reform.  Read more

Not content with writing brilliantly about one wizard, JK Rowling has blogged about Alex Salmond. In a post on her website the Harry Potter author explains why she is donating £1m to the No campaign – and will be voting against Scottish independence.

I encourage anyone interested in the referendum on Scottish independence to read Ms Rowling. She expresses more clearly than most unionists the idea that patriotism is compatible with scepticism of independence. Ms Rowling may also help to explain why the Yes campaign is struggling to convince women. Hers is a proud, quiet and pragmatic defence of Scotland within the UK, one that will chime with many voters.  Read more

So much for the death of the Tea Party. Last night House Majority leader Eric Cantor defied the predictions of data whizzes and old school pundits alike by losing his Republican primary to Donald Bart by 28,898 votes to 36,100. Mr Cantor, who few people would describe as a moderate, spent a lot of money in a political cycle where other Tea Party candidates have struggled to match the movement’s 2010 successes. The question analysts of US politics are asking this morning is: how did this happen?

Not being present yesterday evening in the heady summer heat of Virginia’s 7th congressional district, I can only speculate how Mr Bart might have pulled it off.

But here are three suggestions: Read more