I know I’m meant to be working relentlessly on my book. But I just wanted to break off briefly, to draw people’s attention to this very fine piece on Afghanistan by Christina Lamb. It’s very well written and moving in parts. But I also found its analysis compelling - not least, because Lamb has been visiting Afghanistan on-and-off for many years, and was, until recently, a strong supporter of expanding the war.
Russia mulls tapping capital markets to help finance Moscow’s yawning public deficit
November 5, 2009 4:36pm Comment
By Stefan Wagstyl, the FT’s eastern Europe editor
Among the many would-be borrowers planning to raise money from the capital markets before the current rally fades is the Russian government.
Alexei Kudrin, finance minister, has been talking to bankers and fund managers in London about a proposed bond issue to help finance Moscow’s yawning public deficit. He will not want to be reminded that the last time the Russian authorities tapped the market was shortly before its 1998 default.
Nobody is suggesting that the same could happen again - given the careful way that Russia has managed its accounts in the last decade, stashing away surplus oil and gas export revenues for a rainy day. But those reserves are draining away fast - hence Mr Kudrin’s visit.
One key element has changed little since 1998 - the country’s dependence on oil and gas. Repeated promises to diversify the economy have gone nowhere. The current crisis has clearly not been bad enough for Russia to force any serious policy changes. And now that oil has recovered to around $80 a barrel, up from near $30 earlier this year, the pressures are easing rapidly.
In the short-term, that is good for Russia - and will help in getting the bond away. But in the long-term, it delays the development of a diversified modern economy able to repay its bondholders whatever the financial climate.
Europe is wasting its Obama moment
November 3, 2009 4:15pm Comment
Gideon is away on book writing leave… but he has been back in touch about the following study from the European Council on Foreign Relations. He says it is “one of those rare things - a report on the transatlantic relationship that is actually worth reading.”
Here is an excerpt:
As EU leaders head to Washington for their transatlantic summit tomorrow, an unsentimental President Obama has already lost patience with Europe. In a post-American world, the United States knows it needs effective partners. At present, Europe lacks coherence and purpose. If Europe cannot step up, the US will look for other partners to do business with. Read the report here.
Related reading:
Summit-hungry Europeans flock to a bemused Washington FT Brussels blog
Obama - in depth news, comment and analysis, FT
Afghanistan’s election: Relief the saga has ended
November 2, 2009 3:50pm Comment
By James Blitz, the FT’s defence and diplomatic editor
The collapse of the second round of the Afghan election will be viewed by some western governments as a fiasco, one that raises questions about how legitimate Hamid Karzai really is as the country’s leader and partner to the US. But many in Nato will also be relieved today that the long Afghan election saga has finally come to an end. Clearly, there are huge questions about Mr Karzai’s standing after the election debacle, the allegations of voter fraud and the evident US frustration with his leadership. But the second round of the election, was always going to be a severe test for Afghanistan - with fears about yet more violence and fraud, and the spectre of a low turnout. Many will breathe a sigh of relief that another chapter in this electoral nightmare has been avoided. Continue reading "Afghanistan’s election: Relief the saga has ended"
China has converted me to the importance of the EU
November 2, 2009 12:23pm Comment
By Geoff Dyer, the FT’s China bureau chief
China can do strange things to your politics. I know foreigners who purr about the efficiency of authoritarian bureaucracy and others who search Confucian texts for new political ideas. In my case, China has converted me to the importance of the European Union.
Sitting in Beijing, it is all too easy to feel that Europe is becoming irrelevant, as the US and a rising China stitch up the global agenda. The Chinese have become quite adept at playing one European government against another. When Beijing cancelled a summit with the EU last year to punish Nicolas Sarkozy for meeting the Dalai Lama, the response from other EU capitals was an awkward silence. The European Council on Foreign Relations claims Beijing treats the EU with “diplomatic contempt”.
Continue reading "China has converted me to the importance of the EU"
This blog is about to change radically
October 30, 2009 5:42pm Comment
That is because I’m disappearing for two months, to finish a book. (About international politics, amazingly enough). To ensure maximum concentration, I am abandoning not just the column - but also the blog. I will return to normal duties at the beginning of January.
In the meantime, a group of my colleagues have kindly agreed to take over my blogging duties. Over the next couple of months, this will become a group international affairs blog - drawing on the resources of the FT’s network of foreign correspondents. Among the people who have promised to blog at least once a week are Geoff Dyer, Roula Khalaf, James Blitz, Alan Beattie and Victor Mallet. (The last two will start around November 10th.) And other correspondents will chip in, every now and then. It promises to be really good - but, I hope, not too good, or I could be out of a job in 2010.
FT video: David Miliband interview
October 29, 2009 4:00pm Comment
The British foreign secretary spoke to my colleague George Parker about Afghanistan, Russia and the prospect of president Blair. Continue reading "FT video: David Miliband interview"
Why is US unemployment so high?
October 29, 2009 12:15pm Comment
For most of the past twenty years, high levels of unemployment in Europe have been a source of shame and concern for European policymakers. Conversely, the Americans have revelled in the extraordinary job-creating US economy. Whenever Europeans defended their welfare states, or poined to inequality in the US, the Americans had a ready riposte - at least our people are at work.
But, without exciting much comment, things have now changed. American unemployment is alarmingly high - 9.8% according to the tables at the back of The Economist. By comparision, Britain is 7.9%, Germany 8.2%, the Netherlands 5.1%, Denmark 3.7%. The euro-zone as a whole is at 9.6%, just below the States - but the average is dragged up by Spain’s outstandingly poor performance, with unemployment of 18.9%.
Now it could be that America’s bad unemployment figures are just the flip side of its famous “flexible labour markets”. Lots of jobs are created in good times, and lots of jobs are lost in recessions. And, if that is “all” it is, I don’t think it will necessarily change the debate about the relative merits of the US and European economic models. But if America really is staging a “jobless recovery - as some pundits have begun to call it - that will have broader implications for international politics and “globalisation”.
Related reading:
Ralph Atkins: Eurozone feels benefit of short-time work schemes
An insight into the Sarko presidency
October 29, 2009 12:05pm Comment
For those of you who have not yet made it to p.24 of the second section (UK edition) of today’s FT, may I bring your attention to what seems to the single most amusing/interesting fact in today’s paper.
Paul Betts in his European View notes that, during the French EU presidency, France hosted a three day “Union of the Mediterranean summit” that cost 16.6m euros. He goes on - “On the occasion of that summit, a shower was specially installed in the Grand Palais in Paris at a cost of €245,000 for the personal use of the president. Mr Sarkozy never used it.”
Miliband and the Age of Continents
October 28, 2009 2:28pm Comment
David Miliband, the British foreign secretary, has been making the running in the efforts to secure the EU council presidency for his old boss, Tony Blair. (Miliband was the head of the Downing Street policy unit under Blair.) The Charlemagne blog suggests, amusingly, that Miliband’s heart may not be in it - and that he is playing some sort of weird double game, designed to advance his own ambitions.
But, whatever his secret musings, Miliband made an interesting and thoughtful speech on Britain and Europe a couple of days ago at the IISS in London. He argued that world is heading for an “Age of Continents” - in which sheer size will be increasingly important. The world will either be run by a G2 of China and the US, or by a G3 that includes the EU. The moral is that Britain has to throw its lot in with the EU, or face increasing irrelevance. As Miliband himself notes, the Tories aversion to deeper European integration is so intense that they would probably prefer increasing irrelevance - an idea that William Hague seemed to accept in his own IISS speech, a few weeks back. Continue reading "Miliband and the Age of Continents"

Back to Blogs
This blog covers a variety of topics from US foreign policy to European politics and the Middle East - and whatever else happens to be in the news or catch my attention. I joined the FT as chief foreign affairs commentator in 2006, after a 15-year career at The Economist which included stints as a correspondent in Brussels, Bangkok and Washington. I write a weekly column on foreign affairs, which appears in the paper on Tuesdays. Occasionally my FT colleagues contribute posts to this blog.
Geoff Dyer is the FT's China bureau chief. He has been a correspondent in Shanghai and in Brazil and has also covered the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology industries from London.
Roula Khalaf is the FT's Middle East editor. She has worked for the FT since 1995, first as North Africa correspondent, then Middle East correspondent and most recently as Middle East editor. Before joining the FT, she was a staff writer for Forbes magazine in New York.
James Blitz is the FT's defence and diplomatic editor. He has been the FT's political editor, based in London, and Rome bureau chief. James is a former Moscow bureau chief for the Sunday Times.
Alan Beattie is the FT's world trade editor. He has previously been economics leader writer and spent two years in Washington DC as chief US economics correspondent. Before joining the FT, Alan was an economist at the Bank of England.
Victor Mallet is the FT's Madrid bureau chief. He is a former Asia editor of the FT, and, in more than 20 years at the organisation, has also worked in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. In 1990 he escaped from Kuwait after being one of the few foreign correspondents there when Iraq invaded.
Stefan Wagstyl is the FT's eastern Europe editor, co-ordinating coverage of the region. He has also been the FT's bureau chief in Tokyo and New Delhi.