The coup in Thailand will shake those who would like to believe that the world is on some sort of linear path towards freedom and democracy, driven by rising prosperity. The last successful military coup took place in Thailand in 1991. Since then there has been enormous economic growth. But the Thai political system appears to be no more mature than it was 15 years ago. In fact, the same old fractures and tensions are still there. There is a relatively rich urban middle-class based in Bangkok; but also a larger, much poorer rural population - “rice paddy” Thailand. There is a sophisticated international business class; but also a powerful military establishment. Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been deposed as prime minister, was an ambiguous figure. A billionaire businessmen, who nonetheless pitched his appeal to the rural poor; a man who spoke the language of democracy, while alienating most Thai liberals, through his alleged corruption and his willingness to ride roughshod over the law, for example in highly controversial (and bloody) crackdowns on drug dealers and on a rebellion in southern Thailand. The Thai coup certainly evokes a sense of déj&agrave vu for me. I moved to Bangkok for three years in 1992. Thailand had had a military coup in 1991 and installed a technocratic prime minister, Anand Panyarachun, as a caretaker. Then, as now, the attitudes of the international community and the Thai middle class to the military intervention were very ambivalent. Yes - it was conceded, a military coup was bad news. But then again Anand was generally regarded as an excellent prime minister: efficient, uncorrupt and the author of important economic reforms. He was also a man who had no personal ambition to hang onto power. After a botched attempt by the military to entrench their own power led to bloodshed on the streets of Bangkok in 1992, Anand was called back for a second spell as prime minister - before giving way later that year to a restored democratic system. It may well be that the authors of the current military coup will once again be looking for an Anand figure to hold the ring, while they re-write the constitution and prepare the way for a restoration of democracy. I also got to know Thaksin a little, during my spell in Thailand. At the time he was a rising telecoms entrepreneur, whose business empire was already worth billions of dollars. In 1993 I went to interview him in his new skyscraper headquarters. The place was so new that he was still surrounded by discarded cardboard packing cases for the furniture. Thaksin was clearly extremely sharp and also had a sense of humour. I asked him whether, like other entrepreneurs of Chinese origin, he was building a family business empire. He replied - “My son has not chosen to go into the business.” Pause. “Mind you, he is ten years old.” I also asked him about the controversy of the time - the withdrawal of his firm’s license to operate in Cambodia. I put it to him that the Cambodian government had accused him of paying bribes. His reply - “That should not be enough to over-turn the deal”, suggested the kind of rough-and-ready attitude to the law, that may be at the root of some of his current problems.

September 20th, 2006 in Uncategorised | Permalink