In Europe, the big development of the week is the announcement that Romania and Bulgaria will indeed join the European Union next January. The Union will henceforth have 27 members and over half a billion citizens. But, at least in western Europe, it is a peculiarly joyless moment, as the FT reports this morning. When the first eight countries from Central Europe were admitted in 2004 there was certainly ambivalence in the rest of the EU - but also a genuine sense that this was a historic moment. The division of Europe was finally over.
But while Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary have histories and literatures that are familiar to many in western Europe, this is much less true of Romania and Bulgaria. Plus, there is a widespread feeling that the rules have been bent to let these two countries in. The sourness of the mood in France in particular was captured by an online poll of readers of Le Monde;  more than two-thirds feel that Romania and Bulgaria are being admitted prematurely. My guess is, however, that all this furore will die down. Within a few years it will probably seem entirely natural that the Romanians and Bulgarians are EU members. But there are two big provisos. First, there must be no nasty political shocks in either country. Second, the flows of people out of the country must be of an order that the richer bits of Europe can cope with. I’m reasonably optimistic on both grounds.

Meanwhile in America, the debates about terror, torture and civil liberties continue. It appears that Tariq Ramadan, a Swiss academic, who is often portrayed in Europe as a voice of moderate Islam is still banned from entering the US - although the reasons are now a little clearer. The Bush administration meanwhile seem to be proposing an extraordinarily broad definition of who might be an "unlawful enemy combatant" - and thus subject to indefinite detention by the US government. It seems as if the definition could even extend to their own citizens. Such a power - if abused - would threaten to turn American into a police state. For that reason, I cannot believe that the American system will let it stand.
Finally, an intriguing little item from a new Washington intelligence service called Swoop, run by Jonathan Clarke, a former British diplomat and think-tanker. Swoop reports that the administration is having a quiet debate over whether it can simultaneously and successfully prosecute the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Swoop reckons that if it has to make a choice, it is leaning towards Afghanistan.
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October 18th, 2006 in Europe, US politics | Permalink