October 11, 2006
Kim Jong Il and Richard Nixon
It must be irritating - not to say alarming - for the world’s superpowers to be outwitted by a lunatic, operating from the world’s most isolated state, North Korea. But if it’s any consolation, in the game of nuclear brinkmanship, lunatics may actually start with an advantage.
This theory was outlined by Richard Nixon to Bob Halderman during the Vietnam War. As Halderman recalled in his memoirs Nixon explained that he wanted the Vietnamese to believe that he might just be crazy enough to use nuclear weapons. Halderman recalled him saying: "I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We’ll just slip the word to them that, ‘for God’s sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about Communism. We can’t restrain him when he’s angry — and he has his hand on the nuclear button’ — and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace."
It seems entirely possible that Kim Jong Il is following Nixonian logic - and was hoping that North Korea’s nuclear test will persuade the United States and his Asian neighbours to treat him with a little more kindness and consideration.
Mind you, the madman theory didn’t really work for Nixon in Vietnam - and so far seems to have backfired for Kim Jong Il, what with all this talk of stepped up sanctions.
And of course, there is the problem that Kim Jong Il may be genuinely crazy - rather than simply acting the part. After all North Korea is extremely isolated - even by the standards of the Nixon White House.
