October 13, 2006
Warnings from Warsaw
Earlier this year Radek Sikorski, the Polish defence minister, raised a few eyebrows when he compared the current Russo-German project to build a gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea to the "Molotov-Ribbentrop pact" - the Nazi-Soviet agreement, which laid the groundwork for the invasion of Poland. The Poles are worried that the new pipeline might allow Russia to keep supplying German energy needs, while submitting the Poles to "energy blackmail" of the sort the Russians tried out on Ukraine, at the turn of the year. Once again, the Poles fear, their biggest neighbours are making an anti-Polish deal over their heads.
I am currently in Warsaw and I have to say that the mood among government officials here has not lightened up since Sikorski made his comments. On the contrary, the Poles feel that current events in Russia are vindicating the warnings they have been making for years.
The murder of the journalist Anna Politkovskaya and the brutal Russian pressure on Georgia - and even on individual Georgians living inside Russia - has the Poles saying "I told you so." Or as one senior politician put it to me - "You should judge the Russians by the way they deal with Georgia, not by the way they deal with Germany or France."
The sight of Russia bullying its near neighbours makes the Poles profoundly grateful that they are now inside the European Union and Nato - and so (one assumes) immune from such treatment. But they would like a few Nato facilities to be put on the ground in Poland, just to provide some sort of tripwire in case of invasion. It’s not that the Poles actually fear invasion in the foreseeable future. But they know their history (and how) and so cannot dismiss the fear of Russian aggression in the long-term.
In the short term, however, the Poles are still anxiously watching the evolution of the German-Russian relationship. The Merkel-Putin summit earlier this week was a bit too friendly for their liking. Indeed Angela Merkel, the new German chancellor, has been a bit of a disappointment for the Poles. They had hoped that as a former east German she would take a more "realistic" line towards Russia. Instead she seems almost as intent on a special energy relationship with Russia as Gerhard Schroder, her predecessor.
Policy towards Russia is meant to be one of the themes of the German presidency of the European Union next year. To judge by the mood in Warsaw, it will not be easy to agree a common European line.
What can we expect from the Trojan Donkey? Nothing. While Spain has being working hard in the face of European Construction Poland has been deceptive, anti-European, acting just as a puppet without brain. I wonder why those Europhobes wanted to be in the European Union if they hate us, unless if the only reason why they did wanted to join is to try to destroy the European Union with the support o the United Kingdom. After all they are just a bunch of trojan donkeys without honour. Pathetics.
Posted by: Enrique | May 29th, 2007 at 3:09 am | Report this commentI am getting an impression that the only reason Poland has joined the EU is to strong arm its neighbours into a confrontation with Russia.
First of all, why do Poles have an obsession with exporting meat to Russia? Poland has its free market access to Europe, its mutual commitments and agreements with ist partners in Europe. Export the meat to Europe then. Russia does not owe you.
Secondly, Georgian conflict is a complicated one. Georgian officials had a very strong anti-Russian rhetoric. We simply could not afford to allow someone so close to our borders to be THAT hostile.
Thirdly, the gas pipeline’s raison d’etre is reliability. The past events have shown that the supply of gas via Ukraine and Belorussia to Germany, one of the main consumers of our gas, is highly unstable. Why should Germany entrust the integrity of its natural gas supply to Poland and others?
Posted by: Oleg | May 30th, 2007 at 5:03 pm | Report this commentThe Germans seem to be more far-sighted than the “angry, anti-European” poles. The Germans are well aware about trend growing oil and gas for the coming decades. They are they economic power of Europe and have not intention to reliquish that spot - and why should they? Like it or not, all long term energy supplies for Europe which are the driving factor for its economic engine have to rely on closer and massive Russian source not distant sources from the unpredictable Arabian gulf. Supporting the Nord Stream by the Germans is controlling their own economic destiny and not having to rely on poor angry poles who happen to already hate the Germans out of envy. Resourceless poles have to learn to co-exist with their big neighbors. Its the only option or they will be economically crashed and their anti-German, anti-Russian and anti-European attitude is self destructive.
Posted by: Julius | January 1st, 2008 at 2:52 pm | Report this commentThings in Poland are changing with the new Government led by Donald Tusk.
Because it is not just about energy but also about Trade with China being Russia the main link between the European Union´s 500 million people and $15 Tr. and China´s 1,300 million people and $4 Tr…….
It is logical that in the same way as Greece, which is eagerly working to be the southern link between the E.U. and China (through Turkey to Xinjiang), Poland is discovering that the Continental dimmension fits better with their interests than the Maritime dimmension defended by the UK and the US.
Poland has a priviledged geopolitical situation among Germany and Russia and there lies its present and, more, its future: Trade, tourism, energy, cohesion funds…over 60% will come from Germany and Russia alone, not from the USA or from the UK.
Posted by: Enrique | January 1st, 2008 at 8:56 pm | Report this comment