Don’t do it Tony

June 25, 2007 5:08pm

Is Tony Blair the right man to bring peace to the Middle East? Plenty of people will have their say on that if - as predicted in today’s FT - Blair is appointed as a new envoy to the area. But, to my mind, the more interesting question is whether the Middle East is the right place to bring peace to Tony Blair.

Consider the problem. Here is a man who is leaving office reluctantly after 10 years in Downing Street. He is uncomfortably aware that his reputation for competence and morality has been badly damaged by the Iraq war. He is seeking redemption - and now wants to do something unarguably good. He wants to save something. He could try to save the planet from climate change - but Al Gore seems to have cornered that market. He is itching to save Africa - but there is no formal job to apply for. Oh well, it will have to be the Middle East.

The trouble is that the Middle East peace process is a very bad choice if you are looking for a quick shot at redemption. It is not just that the problem is famously - notoriously - insoluble; although that cannot be a good start. Nor is it that Tony Blair has, shall we say, a mixed reputation in the Middle East.

The real problem is that rather than wiping away the bad bits of the Blair premiership, prolonged involvement in the Israel-Palestine problem will merely expose him further to the issue that did most to damage him in the first place. Blair sold involvement in the Iraq war to many sceptics in Britain on the grounds that this would gain him leverage in Washington. The proof of this leverage would be that the Bush administration would "deliver" on the Middle East peace process. But nothing happened - and so Blair ended up looking like a chump.

His new job could be designed to prolong this humiliation. Whatever brilliant schemes the soon-to-be-former prime minister comes up with, nothing will happen unless the Americans and Israelis agree. And the last few years have demonstrated that while George W. Bush is genuinely grateful to Tony Blair for his support - he is not so grateful that he is willing to let Blair dictate his policy on the Middle East. In the end Congress, Dick Cheney and Aipac all matter more.

If Blair was unable to push Bush in the "right direction" when he was British prime minister, why would he be any more effective when he is an envoy without an office? Blair may be anxious to have a new job. But this looks like the wrong one.