Is Tony Blair the right man to bring peace to the Middle East? Plenty of people will have their say on that if - as predicted in today’s FT - Blair is appointed as a new envoy to the area. But, to my mind, the more interesting question is whether the Middle East is the right place to bring peace to Tony Blair.
Consider the problem. Here is a man who is leaving office reluctantly after 10 years in Downing Street. He is uncomfortably aware that his reputation for competence and morality has been badly damaged by the Iraq war. He is seeking redemption - and now wants to do something unarguably good. He wants to save something. He could try to save the planet from climate change - but Al Gore seems to have cornered that market. He is itching to save Africa - but there is no formal job to apply for. Oh well, it will have to be the Middle East.
The trouble is that the Middle East peace process is a very bad choice if you are looking for a quick shot at redemption. It is not just that the problem is famously - notoriously - insoluble; although that cannot be a good start. Nor is it that Tony Blair has, shall we say, a mixed reputation in the Middle East.
The real problem is that rather than wiping away the bad bits of the Blair premiership, prolonged involvement in the Israel-Palestine problem will merely expose him further to the issue that did most to damage him in the first place. Blair sold involvement in the Iraq war to many sceptics in Britain on the grounds that this would gain him leverage in Washington. The proof of this leverage would be that the Bush administration would "deliver" on the Middle East peace process. But nothing happened - and so Blair ended up looking like a chump.
His new job could be designed to prolong this humiliation. Whatever brilliant schemes the soon-to-be-former prime minister comes up with, nothing will happen unless the Americans and Israelis agree. And the last few years have demonstrated that while George W. Bush is genuinely grateful to Tony Blair for his support - he is not so grateful that he is willing to let Blair dictate his policy on the Middle East. In the end Congress, Dick Cheney and Aipac all matter more.
If Blair was unable to push Bush in the "right direction" when he was British prime minister, why would he be any more effective when he is an envoy without an office? Blair may be anxious to have a new job. But this looks like the wrong one.

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This blog covers a variety of topics from US foreign policy to European politics and the Middle East - and whatever else happens to be in the news or catch my attention. I joined the FT as chief foreign affairs commentator in 2006, after a 15-year career at The Economist which included stints as a correspondent in Brussels, Bangkok and Washington. I write a weekly column on foreign affairs, which appears in the paper on Tuesdays. Occasionally my FT colleagues contribute posts to this blog.
Geoff Dyer is the FT's China bureau chief. He has been a correspondent in Shanghai and in Brazil and has also covered the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology industries from London.
Roula Khalaf is the FT's Middle East editor. She has worked for the FT since 1995, first as North Africa correspondent, then Middle East correspondent and most recently as Middle East editor. Before joining the FT, she was a staff writer for Forbes magazine in New York.
James Blitz is the FT's defence and diplomatic editor. He has been the FT's political editor, based in London, and Rome bureau chief. James is a former Moscow bureau chief for the Sunday Times.
Alan Beattie is the FT's world trade editor. He has previously been economics leader writer and spent two years in Washington DC as chief US economics correspondent. Before joining the FT, Alan was an economist at the Bank of England.
Victor Mallet is the FT's Madrid correspondent. He is a former Asia editor of the FT, and, in more than 20 years at the organisation, has also worked in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. In 1990 he escaped from Kuwait after being one of the few foreign correspondents there when Iraq invaded.
Stefan Wagstyl is the FT's eastern Europe editor, co-ordinating coverage of the region. He has also been the FT's bureau chief in Tokyo and New Delhi.