October 26, 2007
Russian opinions; Russian jokes
I will stop banging on about Russia soon. But as well as the Kremlin meeting I recorded in the blog earlier in the week, I had lots of other meetings, kindly organised by the Heinrich Boll Stiftung, a German foundation.
Among the people we met was Yury Schmidt, the lawyer for Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the imprisoned former boss of Yukos. Schmidt is still doing his best by his client. But since he - like most people I spoke to - assume the legal process around Yukos is entirely politicised, it is difficult to hold out much hope. Much of what Schmidt had to say was convincing, even moving. But some of it seemed a little too ingenious. He argued that many of Khodorkovsky’s alleged crimes were committed in a period when the Soviet legal system had collapsed, but new laws had not yet been passed. I asked, "So you are saying since there were no laws, it was imposssible to break the law?" He replied, "Exactly."
Nobody has any doubt that United Russia, Putin’s party, will sweep the December elections. They are on 68 per cent in the latest polls. The only other party certain to get into the Duma are the communists. Various brave people are competing for the title of "doomed standard-bearer of Russian liberalism". They include Gary Kasparov, the former chess champion, Vladimir Ryzkhov and Grigory Yavlinski, whose Yabloko party, stand at 1 per cent in the polls - which is pretty good going for Russian liberals.
Yavlinski thinks that the Kosovo war - and in particular the sight of Nato bombing Belgrade - had a disastrous effect on pro-western sentiment in Russia. He says Nato’s argument that Serbia had committed human-rights abuses in Kosovo was no comfort to Russians, who are well aware that their own government’s hands are not clean in Chechnya. Ordinary Russians concluded that the only reason that Nato could bomb Belgrade - but would never bomb Moscow - is that Serbia was weak and Russia is strong. So military strength and an assertive Russian foreign policy came back into fashion.
Those conclusions are certainly borne out by fascinating surveys of Russian public opinion carried out by the Levada centre, an independent research group. Among the findings that caught my eye:
Asked what was more important, "order" or "democracy" - 68 per cent opt for order, 11 per cent for democracy. Some 31 per cent of Russians say they have a positive or very positive feeling about the word "communism"; 11 per cent feel that way about capitalism; democracy gets a 21 per cent positive rating. But "great power" gets 72 per cent approval and "motherland" gets 88 per cent approval. Oh, and only 29 per cent accept Russia’s current borders and only 21 per cent think of themselves as "European". No wonder, Yavlinski isn’t making much headway.
Schmidt, curious German last name for his lawyer but there are about 2 million German-Russians in spite of Stalin´s progroms, the end of the Volga German Republic and the following emigration to North and South America (basically Brazil) even if being a lawyer of Mikhail Khodorovsky,who is a Russian-Jew, perhaps Yuri Schmidt is also a Russian-Jew-German…with a German last name like most askenazies, who also speak a German dialect (Yiddish)
Curious the fact that only 21% of Russians think themselves as “European” but i would like to know how was the question asked and what were the options…
Posted by: Enrique Costas Mira | October 26th, 2007 at 7:45 pm | Report this commentEnrique,
‘Schmidt’ is definitely not an Askenazi surname (though Helmut Schmidt had a Jewish grandfather - this before Sarkozy, but later than Lenin).
Yiddish is as much a German dialect as Dutch is. They are not mutually intelligible therefore they form distinct tongues (Max Weinreich, the great Yiddish linguist, once famously remarked: “A language is a dialect with an army and a navy).
Posted by: RCS | October 26th, 2007 at 8:11 pm | Report this commentWhat can you say about Yukos..what a soap opera!eventually someone will write THE book on it and FT will award best business book of the year to the author! I can somewhat sympathize with the average Russian wanting to see “order” over “democracy”. An ordered life in an ordered society is far easier to define and operate in and envision than what “democracy” would bring…Westerners have bestowed sainthood on Yeltzin …but the Russians had to live him and his version “democracy”. In general, people underestimate the wear and tear on the soul that living with ambiguity does day in and day out…imagine living real life as a character out of a novel Kafka or Solzhenitsyn, it’s an impossible existence… So a new generation finally seeing economic progress in their own lives and Russian acting as a major world power on the world stage thinks that being apolitical is not such a bad deal to abide by IF they move ahead economically. The key will be what is done to diversify the economy and create a middle class and a reason for young people not to leave Russia, or not to eventually become a significant opposition to government. The government is diversifying the economy, e.g., it is putting significant funding into nanotechnology, and other industries. Much more is needed in particular, affordable decent housing, setting up industry parks in dying towns, as everyone leaves for Moscow or abroad….we shall see, I see reasons to be optimistic, this Russian government shows it understands that economic progress needs a diversified economy which in turn is dependent on an effective and fair legal system that supports it, or you run the risk of impeding foreign investment. Putin’s “State of the Federation” speech last spring addressed many of the social ills of Russia, substance abuse, abandoned children, sub standard housing, along with economic reforms. Moreover, one party domination exists…in Israel, the Labour Party ruled from 1948 to 1977, and has since fallen victim to be held politically captive by small right wing and religious parties since the demise of the one party rule, Japan has thrived economically on one party domination….this may be a phase that will alllow more economic growth at a faster pace…20 and 30 years from now the Russian parliament could look like th Ukraine’s or Israel’s, which one could argue is not such a great thing to look forward to …the Borders Issue is very interesting, even intriguing, but Russia is heavily wired into border states, there are other ways to influence, even dominate these states (energy and trade and even ofering protection) without overt aggressive military acts. I am not so surprised at the “European” response…but how the question was worded is relevant…in fact all wording to the questions are…It would be nice to see a link to this survey/poll.
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | October 26th, 2007 at 9:03 pm | Report this commentWhat are Russian priorities? Probably much the same as elsewhere. 11% of Russians want democracy; 68% prefer order; 72% want great power; and 88% want motherland (more nationalism).
On Khodorkovsky, you say the legal process around Yukos is thought to be entirely politicised. No doubt this politicisation extends also to the independent audit of Yukos. The FT reported in June 2007 that the auditors had withdrawn their statutory reports on Yukos for the period 1995 to 2004, which had the effect of both strengthening the Kremlin’s case against Khodorkovsky and its hand against the shareholders of the dismantled Yukos.
Posted by: Slightly Optimistic | October 26th, 2007 at 11:03 pm | Report this commentLisa-Helene Lawson: “this Russian government shows it understands that economic progress needs a diversified economy which in turn is dependent on an effective and fair legal system…”
Lisa, could you tell me why do you think so well of this Russian government? Especially given that it’s widely believed in Russia that the government is just an everyday executive and the prime-minister gets all his orders from the President’s administration (staffed with people who put Khodorkovsky and Lebedev in jail, who recently stole Rusneft and drove Mikhail Gutseriev to exile in London, who have been exproting billions of dollars to anonymous accounts in Austria in the past year, and whose only hope to keep the illegal wealth they have amassed is exactly an INeffective and UNfair legal system)?
Posted by: A Russian | October 27th, 2007 at 8:48 am | Report this commentRCS,
According to Wikipedia Yiddish is much more similar to German than the Dutch. Perhaps the difference is something as the Dutch and the Afrikaans.
What i can assure you is that the “ladino” spoken by thousands of Sephardic jews is an Spanish dialect as much as the Spanish spoken in Argentina or Colombia. The fact that those who speak Spanish are jews, muslims or buddhists doesn´t make a different language. Of course they used some words which are not of common use in Spain now but so happens with the English in America and the English of the UK.
Posted by: Enrique Costas Mira | October 27th, 2007 at 3:01 pm | Report this commentEnrique,
Unfortunately the ‘English’ in America and the English in the UK are converging, as witnessed by Mr Rachman’s use of the word ‘oil’ (instead of ‘petroleum’; what does this ‘oil’ lubricate? Or American ‘gas’ for petrol, which isn’t a gas at all!). American English is a very unrefined speech, with ugly abbreviations such as ‘apps’ for applications, extensive use of gerunds, limited everyday vocabulary and more. I am not a specialist, but I can immediately spot the difference between an elegant piece of British prose and American writing - which therefore I tend to avoid, lest it corrupt my own non-native knowledge.
Posted by: RCS | October 27th, 2007 at 3:43 pm | Report this commentA Russian,
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | October 27th, 2007 at 8:57 pm | Report this comment“Well of them”? That is not exactly what I have said…what I have said is that I see both Putin and Russia at this particular time more complicated and nuanced than how he, and Russia are often characterized.
In regard to the the legal system, the corruption …Well that’s the supreme test isn’t it? It’s one thing to understand that you need a diversified economy, but to support it you need foreign investment, which in turn REQUIRES, even DEMANDS an effective and fair legal system..in respect to commerce and financial transactions. There are troubling structural problems for sure, in banking practices especially…however, Russia is clearly in transition economically. To succeed in a global economy MORE than anything else Russia needs for the moment to show that it is fiscally stable and will remain that way…that is what I think Putin understands. Granted, I am not Russian nor do I live there day in day out…and I am basing my information on a visit this past summer where I found people in cafes (in their 30’s early 40’s)and on the beaches of St. Petersburg extremely upbeat and on conversations with people who do business there or are thinking of doing business there.
In regrard to the Ruusian Oil Barons well if they were all as competent and socially responsible as the head of Lukoil…they probably would not be in the fix that some of them found/find themselves in and the Russian people would not be so gleeful everytime the Russian government brings one down…as the saying goes, “what goes around comes around”…even in Russia.
Wow! That’s not often that you hear a Westerner defend the way oil baron Khodorkovsky was treated! What do you mean by social responsibility of oil barons? I always thought that a businessman’s social responsibility is to create jobs and to pay taxes. Yukos created thousands of new jobs, Khodorkovsky took it from a near-bankrupt to the most efficent oil company in Russia. As for taxes, Yukos paid them using the same completely legal loopholes as ALL other “socially responsible” oil barons at the time. You also may not know that Khodorkovsky maintained an orphanage for 150 kids and social programmes fund “Open Russia”. He also sponsored opposition MPs and liberal political parties. He was put to jail after a business round table in Kremlin at which he said to Putin: “Your people steal and take bribes”. How much more socially responsibile can one possibly be?
The fact that the majority of Russians are gleeful about bringing him down, as you put it… Well, according to a recent poll of Levada centre, 54% of young Russians think there was more good than bad in Stalin’s deeds and legacy. Quite a nuanced picture of the country, isn’t it? Here’s another recent poll result: only 5% of Russians think that the country’s law enforcement is NOT used by the authorities against their political opponents. It’s the same majority of Russians who applauded Khodorkovsky’s arrest: they see why and they find it natural.
Structural problems in banking practices have nothing to do with illegally appropriating billions of dollars by high-ranking officials (which are linked by some to the contract killing of deputy Head of Central Bank Andrey Kozlov last September). You said that Russian government understands the priorities of diversified economic growth and fair legal system… Don’t say it to a Russian, he will die of laughter .
Posted by: A Russian | October 28th, 2007 at 7:55 am | Report this commentWhat the country NEEDS and what the government DOES are two completely different things. If you read Russian you can check your rosy optimism against reality here (definitely a more informed source than St. Petersburg beaches):
http://www.newtimes.ru/magazine/issue_36/article_3.htm
A Russian,
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | October 28th, 2007 at 5:35 pm | Report this commentwell again, you are intent on misrepresenting and/or not understanding want I am saying…and even contraditing somewhat a previous post of yours where you discussed headways in economic diversification (on previous post of Mr. Rachman’s). In any event, even with all your gloom and doom, I look forward to my next visit to Russia…. doing Moscow this time, and researching and writing about the life Elizabeth Fyodorovna Romanova. I shall leave you to defend and educate everyone on the lives of the rich and famous, and even the infamous of Russia. I shall do my little part in educating others on the lives your saints, especially Yelizaveta…one of the most interesting women ever to live in Russia.
No contradiction. I said previously there is a view that growing wealth may bring people to demand more accountability from the government. However, there is no evidence this has happened so far. If you care to follow the Russian political debate, you will learn that the Russian government has long become an executive branch of the President’s administration (which is THE REAL government in this country) and Russian prime-ministers are a laughing stock. Do you know when ex-premier Fradkov learned about his resignation? Half an hour before it happened. He got a call from smb in the Kremlin and was told that he would have to leave today. This was captured on TV as he was at a public meeting at that moment. Next thing he was televised saying to Putin he had decided to leave before the elections… You talk about Russian government understanding anything about diversified economy and fair legal system! The ministers serve at the pleasure of the Kremlin and have no say in any stragtegic issues.
Good luck with the saints! This is certainly a much hotter subject here
Posted by: A Russian | October 28th, 2007 at 6:55 pm | Report this commentA Russian, it must be that Putin shares your alarm at the graveness of the situation - this is why he has decided to become premier himself!
Posted by: RCS | October 28th, 2007 at 7:36 pm | Report this commentWhy does not Putin appoint himself right now prime minister, as long as he still is president! For completeness, he might also consider heading the Russian Church.
Posted by: RCS | October 28th, 2007 at 7:41 pm | Report this commentA Russian,
Actually, this is what you said…”Interestingly, and despite all the contrasts with China, there is a similar school of thought among Russian SME businessmen. They hope for a long enough period of relative stability during which the big oil and gas guys will settle accounts with each other and just let the others live. Meanwhile the middle class will grow up and start demanding more accountability from the authorities. Eventually the enriched population of owners will create a critical mass gradually taking over from the current corrupt elites.
Personally I did not believe in this scenario in the beginning, but it seems more and more appealing and sometimes even convincing. Examples include the anti-raider (quasi-legal aggressive appropriation of business) laws which are being discussed now in the parliament and more objective decisions of the arbitrage court. Also, the non-political civil movement of car-owners has been recently quite vocal in protesting against traffic police offences.
Incidentally, while oil and gas are key movers of the Russain economy, they are not the only ones. Construction, logistics and retail have been growing extremely rapidly (in fact, much faster than stagnating oil and gas production) and contributed increasingly more to the GDP growth.” (A Russian)
IF you want to insist I assert there is no government corruption or that a fair legal system is in place NOW, when that is clearly NOT what I said, be my guest. And by the way, orphanage for 150 children when millions are homeless and leading lives of pure hell! Give me a break! While Yeltsin drank away and allowed the oil barons to run circles around him, Human Rights Watch estimated some 100,000 or more children a year were being abandoned as these oil fortunes were being made. Both the previous and current government which is now flushed with oil revenues and the men who have made their fortunes in some highly questionable ways, have now and in the future will have a great deal to answer for… aside from the obvious moral issue here, these children will eventually be a security risk and economic drain and a major setback to any economic and social gains that are currently being made, if this tragic situation is not turned around. At least Putin addresses the issue in speeches and I hope in actions that will eventually have a positive impact…who knows abandoned children may become one of his priorities…when he is Prime Minister, that is…
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | October 28th, 2007 at 8:34 pm | Report this commentRCS and Lisa-Helene, on Friday in Lisbon Putin confirmed what many analysts in Russia suspected - that he does not intend to become a prime-minister. He also said that he does not know yet what he would do. Putin is known for almost never acting as he says he will. He may still legally be re-elected as a President (even without changing the Constitution), but most people believe he would not go for it either, at least not shortly.
Lisa-Helene, you should pay less attention to what Putin says and more to what he does (or does not). Speaking about children, he - and not businessmen who, again, are responsible for jobs and taxes and not for orphanages which Khodorkovsky was compassionate enough to pay for, unlike Putin’s buddy Abramovich who prefers to invest in UK football - he as the President is responsible for children’s welfare in this country. However, when Putin’s government was asked to allocate 30 mn USD from the budget for the treatment of ALL Russian children with leukemia a couple of months ago, the Finance Ministry said there was no money. That was right after Russia gained Sochi 2014 Olympic games, and the Sochi campaign had cost it 40 mn USD. I mean, when brain-washed Russians watching 3 state TV channels are so naive, I can understand. However, for an objective foreign observer you really beat all the records.
Instead of quoting me please read again what you wrote: “this Russian government shows it understands that economic progress needs a diversified economy which in turn is dependent on an effective and fair legal system…” I cannot see how one can misinterpret this nonsense. I have asked you to show me any concrete examples of your bold assertion, but you preferred to accuse me of inconsistency. Well, I’m quite consistent. In the quote above I said that SOME people are becoming vocal, and that SOME (far from all - ask PriceWatrhouseCoopers about it) decisions of the arbitrage court are becoming more objective. However, as you should know, the courts are not part of the government, they are a different and independent power branch. If the arbitrage is becoming more objective it’s thanks to its Chief Anton Ivanov, a seemingly fine professional, and not to the government. I repeat to you for the 3rd time: the government is among the least effective and the most corrupt organisms in this country. This is a received wisdom for everybody who follows the local political life. It really amuses me when a person whose knowledge of the country is based on summer beach interviwes demostrates so much certainity and entertains so little doubt in her views.
Posted by: A Russian | October 28th, 2007 at 10:12 pm | Report this commentOh please!… this is getting tedious…so this will be my last post on this. There are foreigners investing in an assortment of businesses, they are also working with government officials, Russian business leaders, artists and designers, and certain policy makers …telling them what needs to be done if they are serious about increasing foreign investment, trade and commerce, which as I have said now too many times to remember, is needed for a diversified economy…these are smart people, i.e., the Russians, that they are talking to, some have influence, all understand reforms are needed if progress is to continue… You want to continue to insist that NO economic progress is being made…that no significant government investmnet has been made in nanotech, that discussions are not going on now with foreign companies that would impact Russia’s heathcare, financial services, stockmarket,fashion, design and film production…well frankly I find that amusing!….perhaps you should go to Russian beaches more, they are a great networking tool and you appear to be not in the loop of young mover and shakers…unlike you, I will not be personally insulting/belittling as you have beeen in your post to me, but I shall end by saying when a person looks at any country, its people and leaders, culture etc, whether its Iran, US, Israel Russia, French German etc…if you only want to see black or white, good or evil, heroes or boogeymen…well then that’s all you will see!…and you will also miss alot too!
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | October 29th, 2007 at 1:05 am | Report this commentYou’re right to stop here, Lisa-Helene: never teach others on a subject you do not know. Stay with the saints, you are too good for real people. With your zeal you may even hope to become one yourself: Saint Lisa-Helene, Protecrice of Government, Economy, Legal System and Beaches.
For those who are not saint enough yet: Putin first mentioned diversification of economy in his last annual address to the Parliament, hence in the 8th year of his presidency (despite repeated calls for diversified economic policies from liberal economists, businessmen and journalists since many years). Curiously, at the same time a new legal entity form was adopted, that of state corporation. State corporation is a funny thing: while the state sets it up and makes initial investments in it, the corporation then becomes completely autonomous. Its assets do not belong to the state any more and it is exempt from any fiscal control (apart from filing a balance once in 3 years). In the past several months Russia has seen a surge of new state corporations: in nanotechnologies, in fisheries, in weapons production, to name just a few. All these have been proclaimed as examples of diversification of economy, and all of them got billions of dollars (for nanotechynologies - smth. like 5 bn) as a start-up investment from the state. This has really worried experts, who publicly warned that the money from this recent “diversification trend” would disappear. Nobody can understand why such an exotic legal entity form has been chosen for diversifying the economy. Actually, everybody prefectly understands why… They are really smart people, these Russians, as Lisa-Helene says.
Posted by: A Russian | October 29th, 2007 at 8:57 am | Report this commentSteve Levine, who has covered Russia for the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times for over a decade, has some interesting thoughts on his blog. He writes that Russia under Putin has done everything right, which is in stark contrast to how the West has handled Russia:
Posted by: eric | October 29th, 2007 at 1:42 pm | Report this commenthttp://oilandglory.com/2007/10/americas-unnoticed-new-war.html
A Russian,
Out of curiosity, who do you envisage to be the ideal president of Russia?
And please stop this nonsense about Khodorkovsky, he is very far from the angel you imagine him to be. How can one seriously beleive he went to jail because he tried to open Putin’s eyes about the corruption in the country or that he indeed was in the least concerned with russian people and children in partucular?
Posted by: Dmitry | October 29th, 2007 at 6:42 pm | Report this commentI am not ‘Russian’ but I will answer about Khororkovsky. I think Khodorkovsky went to prison because of his personal relationship with Putin, like he did something Putin didn’t enjoy (sponsoring opposition parties, or may be Khodorkovsky lied to him in person about something serious). Khodorkovsky is not an angel, but if he goes to prison, why Abramovich doesn’t?? Or any other oligarch??
Posted by: Chen | October 29th, 2007 at 7:59 pm | Report this commentAll oligarchs used sneaky rules because there were not proper legal rules. I don’t blame them, but if Putin wants to punish them for using sneaky rules, then he should punish all not just one.
According to some reports (I am not sure which I read it in some papers), government accused UKOS of not paying taxes which exceeded their revenues.
Hi Dmitry,
I have no illusions about Khodorkovsky. Just as you probably, I went to compromat.ru and read about his ascent. He was no better and no worse than others. However, the way he’s behaved in the past 4 years - I can’t help respecting him. As to his and Lebedev’s alleged crimes, one cannot even start blaming them seriously given the sort of justice they had. Have you heard the last? Lebedev has been accused of embezzlment of 63 TRILLION USD by the prosecutor’s office (http://www.ej.ru/?a=note&id=7459)! And I’m sure he will be found guilty by the Basmanny court if the charge stands…
I don’t know anything ideal in this world, but I like a lot Vladimir Ryzhkov. I also like Kasparov, although his southern temperament might on occasions lead to trouble. These two seem most promising to me. Kasyanov - I’m less sure, but definitely better than Putin, Sechin & Co. With oil prices at 93 USD only an idiot could not run this country.
Posted by: A Russian | October 29th, 2007 at 8:24 pm | Report this commentChen:”All oligarchs used sneaky rules because there were not proper legal rules. I don’t blame them, but if Putin wants to punish them for using sneaky rules, then he should punish all not just one.”
Well not all of them agreed to be tools of Dick Cheney in his goal to weaken Russia… even aid Cheney in his attempt to stop Russia’s rebuilding effort and re-emergence on the world stage. It’s interesting that Khodorkovsky has become the darling of US neo-con blogs. They write about him like he is “Natan Schransky”! This is more about what I call “pipeline politics” than anything else. US oil companies were close to getting a share buy-in of Yukos due to the generous spirit of Khodorkovsky. It just was not enough to for him help out all the poor children of Russia, he had to come to the aid of US Big Oil also!….If that would have happened, i.e. a buy in of US Oil companies, one thing is clear, Russia’s August SCO meeting and this month’s Caspian Summit may have not even occurred. As I said, someday someone will write THE book on YUKOS and at its center will be a story about the very high stakes played out, as the US and Russia waged very important global energy geopolitics and balance of power battle…that Putin won…it will not be about what a “meany” Putin is! geesh!
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | October 30th, 2007 at 12:19 am | Report this commentAn intention to sell a stake in your own company is perfectly legal both according to the Russian and international law. This is called M&A operations. However, Russian judges and prosecutors find it natural to put businessmen in jail for this intention (Khodorkovsky, Lebedev and a dozen of their colleagues, including a Youkos legal consultant Svetlana Bakhmina, a mother of two), and some of their western admirers applaud them for thus destroying independent Russian legal system which was never strong anyway.
In the USSR there was an article 80 of the Criminal Code - illegal transactions in foreigtn currencies. What the whole world was doing in money exchange offices, Russians got prison sentences of several years for exchanging roubles for hard currency.
Apart from numerous cases of flagrant violations of the Russian law during Khodorkovsky-Lebedev process, selective law enforcement is more harmful than good, as Chen rightly points out.
And helping 150 kids is better than doing nothing for millions.
It’s curious how one and the same person can admire Elizabeth Fyodorovna Romanova, a woman who was brutally and illegally murdered in a poor embittered country - and defend an illegal imprisonment of businessmen 80 years later in the same country (see the first of the European Court of Justice’s judgement regarding Platon Lebedev last week overruling the Russian court’s decision of 2003).
Posted by: A Russian | October 30th, 2007 at 10:58 am | Report this commentWell, after I write the very needed and hopefully inspiring biography of Elizabeth Fyodorovna Romanova, a most remarkable woman by any measure that too many people do not know about… I will write THE book on Yukos…and then you will understand a little better…in any event, it is not a matter of defending alleged “illegal imprisonment”…it is about understanding why certain events/actions took place…who knows, maybe I will get the FT prize for best Business book! I must say I was rather disappointed this year…I think “Black Swan” should have won…highly original work…
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | October 30th, 2007 at 3:03 pm | Report this commentI think it’s clear that the oligarchs couldn’t have made the billions they did in a matter of only a couple years without political help, spoilation from the state, and/or any dodgy business.
Almost everywhere else, when somebody has $10bn, you know why and how (mostly). Most oligarchs started by trading commodities for hard currency. It often involved army or state stocks of oil etc… Then of course, they was the “privatisation”… The break-in of the century! And I understand why Russians don’t trust their government - or the West-designed “advice” (Jeff Sachs, the newly rebranded economist that want to help the poors in Africa - let us hope he does a better job with Africans than he did with Russians). (aside of the privatisations, they was the recent scandal of the Yukos “auction” !!! which went to some dodgy 1-man company who sold it to Rosneft - seriously, how can that be called an “auction”???)
As for GR’s column and point of Yavlinski’s comment that anti-US sentiment in Russia goes back to the Serbia bombing, I think it clearly didn’t help. But I’m convinced the more decisive point was the Russian crash - overnight, university professors could barely afford 10 Mcdonald’s happy meals per month with their rouble denominated salaries (when it was paid!!!). During that winter 98 and following Spring 99 (serbia’s bombing), a vast majority of Russians became massively impoverished. And the finger was pointer (pretty fairly) to the US. (and IMF, etc…)
Moreover, this was a time when Russia was under “attack” - indeed it was wave of “terrorist” bombs. Of course, only the Russian government (and spies, FSB etc.. Putin’s mates basically) would be capable of putting bombs in what was essentially suburban social housing. It was claimed it was Chechens wanting to make political statements and attract world attention on their war… when they did want to make a statement, it was the moscow theater and Beslan…
Anyway, while I’m an optimist by nature, and I hope that wealth etc will help ordinary russians demand a better government and obtain it. I can’t be that optimitic because the record of the people in power in Russia is far from reassuring. Self-enrichment (or of cronies) has been the prime motive of many “policies”.
Posted by: French_in_London | October 30th, 2007 at 4:00 pm | Report this commentLisa, I will be waiting for your book on YUKOS. I am actually quite excited about it now. I hope you were not joking=)))
Posted by: Chen | October 30th, 2007 at 11:49 pm | Report this commentIts always interesting to see how foreigners think of countries you were born in and where you grew up.
I wonder if me and other pro-US people cause similar feelings among muslims and iranians.
Gideon,
For me the telling part to all of this is yr quoting of a vox-pop about Russians’ views on democracy, capitalism, power, etc, and the revelation that “Great power” status gets 72% and “Motherland” 88% approval ratings.
Virtually every comment on this blog can be attributed to these two yearnings of the Russian people - and with cause. For eg and wrt the Motherland aspect; nobody gives a damn in Russia about the money Khordokovsky et al accumulated in the 90’s - what they despise these people for is that when Mother Russia was on her knees the State entrusted these people with all her resources to pull it through difficult times. Instead they perceive Khordokovsky et al selling out to western interests and giving nothing back to Russia. This is deemed unforgiveable from the man of the street to the President. It is also why the UK will be hounded and hobbled (energy-wise) by Russia wrt Berezovsky, who is also considered to have sold out Russia. Russians are kind people, (they even consider Germnay one of their best friends in Europe nowadays), but betrayl of the motherland is final. I respect a people for that.
Secondly wrt great power status; the appaling way in which the West treats Russia is a very real difficulty now and was avoidable. Moronic politicians do not understand that losing superpower status does not mean that the mentality is lost too! Russia probably still knows more about what is going on in Palestine/Israel, Iran, Iraq, parts of Africa, etc than most countriues put together. It still has capabilities/allies in place around the world and thus is appalled - and so are its people - by the disrespect with which it is held by half baked so-called democracies.
Lastly, why Russians seem to like being ruled authoritively - to the horror of westerners. we British complain about decrees coming across the Channel from the EU telling us what to do; it infuriates us and we rebel. We are less than an hour from Brussles by plane.
Imagine this though. You are in the Russian Far East or north, over twenty hours flying time (and 11 time zones) from your capital city Moscow, and you receive a decree from government telling you something you don’t want to do (pay a poll tax, stop smoking in public building for eg). You refuse to enforce the Moscow directive.
In a country the size of Russia what does/can Moscow do? Ridiculous, naive, and lazy western academics and journalists fail to understand that you just cannot negotiate/discuss/dictate a country policy across 11 time zones; one has to be strong and directive and virtually threaten the population or else you get virtual anarchy - the entire xtry doing its own thing!
Democracy is very, very difficult to exerecise in a xtry the size of Russia. That is why Russians value direction/power from their leaders because they know that in a country the size of Russia the alternative is utter chaos and anarchy. It is in other words a very practical approach by the Russian people - who know their xtry better than some fool in the West. No doubt they would like democracy or somethimg like it in time, but realise it just cannot work that well in Russia.
If readers think this is not true, reflect a little on the tensions between Scotland and Westminster at the moment. Wld it be easier to discuss, compromise if Edinburgh was geographicaly closer and folk cld stroll down and discuss this all with Scottish MPs?
I once flew over Russia at 30,000feet (at about 450 MPH I suppose) on the way to the Russian Far East. On both sides of the plane as I looked out as far as the horizon, all I could see was forestry - for 5 hours.
It is about time (almost 17 years after the USSR break up) that foreigners paid Russia the courtesy of trying to understand Russia ( albeit imperfectly) before commenting and more importantly attempting to judge it.
Posted by: Tim | November 3rd, 2007 at 1:05 pm | Report this commentTim, America spans four time-zones. What, according to your analysis, is the maximal number of time-zones a democracy can sustain?
Posted by: RCS | November 3rd, 2007 at 2:12 pm | Report this commentDear Tim,
I would have thought that the size argument is one that should favour democracy, not authoritarianism?
After all, people can do things better for themselves by considering problems and solutions locally rather than things done by remote control from several thousand miles away.
Maybe I misunderstood what you said.
Best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | November 5th, 2007 at 11:31 am | Report this commentDear P,
I agree that democracy would appear to favour the “big xtry” (look at USA, Canada for eg) but I think why it is self evidently not so, is that the implicit assumption in your conclusion is that democratic institutions/infrastructure exists in the Russian Far East or North. That is probably questionable. Or if they do exist they are not the same as those in European/Moscow.
On reflection I wld probbaly go for the latter explanation as it is reasonably fair to say that East Coast/West Coast politics/democracy is distinguishable still after many centuries of democracy in the USA today.
Secondly communications (phone/transport etc) btn the coasts in Russia is still a massive challenge that is a significant stumbling block for the passage fo ideas/exchange of views etc, and vital I wld have thought to the dissemination of democracy.
But I would conclude that even today in the countryside only 50-100 miles outside of Moscow it is still a feudal economy to a large extent and democracy still does not touch the average Russian there. I once spent time in Magadan on the Russian Pacific coast. They still refer to Moscow as “bolshaya zemlya” which roughly translates as the “mainland” - even though Magadan is itself on the mainland too! This to my mind reflects the Russian mentality more than anything else and I suppose that was what I was originally trying ot say about the Russian psyche!
Tim
Posted by: Tim | November 5th, 2007 at 1:40 pm | Report this commentLisa-Helene,
I’ve just read yr blog piece here on writing “THE” book about Yukos; here’s a piece of advice - if you want to walk around for the rest of yr life with yr head under yr arm - then write it. Otherwise walk away.
As a Russian speaking foreigner who has lived in Russia/CIS and worked in the oil and gas business I cannot stress how naive you appear in yr blog wrt Russian matters and especially Yukos. There are very good reasons why well informed people do NOT write the book on Yukos. Think about it.
A leading female American academic (who is one of Bush’s advisers on Russian oil and gas and CIS politics,) asked me many years ago to write a book with her about Russia’s diamond business and its relations with the Kremlin, Gazprom etc. I gave her the same advice - and she dropped it like a stone.
So enjoy yr research into yr Romonova book and I hope you will find satisfaction with that aspect of Russian history/literature. Stay clear of Yukos et al.
I’ve enjoyed yr ding-dong with our Russian interlocutor by the way. I’ve learnt a lot from you both.
Tim
Posted by: Tim | November 5th, 2007 at 7:44 pm | Report this commentTim, Oh someone will write the book eventually…it is an important story…You like others here seem to view Russian corruption and ruthless personalities as the most important part of the story, …well I do not…moreover,I would argue that such people and practices are usually at the heart of most high stakes power struggles…that is not the important angle to me, hence, I am deemed “naive”…in any event, it the US/Russia geopolitical energy battle that is more intriguing and more important story of Yukos, as the re-emergence of Russia resulted in part as to how this battle played out…but it was only one battle, and Russia won it…it is going to be a long war…US zapping Lukoil in Iraq is yet another skirmish…Iraq, Central Asia and South America as battle fronts loom…I do agree with your assertion “But I would conclude that even today in the countryside only 50-100 miles outside of Moscow it is still a feudal economy to a large extent and democracy still does not touch the average Russian there” that is why it amazes me to hear nothing but gloom and doom about the future of Russia when it still is very much in transformation…economically and politically…
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | November 5th, 2007 at 9:05 pm | Report this commentFor the last word (?) see the exceptionally acute analysis by Sergei Kovalev at http://www.nybooks.com/articles/20836.
Posted by: Jeremy | November 11th, 2007 at 9:46 am | Report this commentSorry. Try omitting the fuill stop.
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/20836
Posted by: Jeremy | November 11th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Report this commentGood Job Russia!…this was important and you showed your courts work!…(at least for some things!!!)
“MOSCOW, May 22 (RIA Novosti) - Russia’s Supreme Court ruled as lawful on Thursday the extradition to Colombia of Yair Klein, an Israeli national sentenced to 10 years and eight months in prison for training terrorists.”
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | May 23rd, 2008 at 2:09 am | Report this comment