Back to Gideon RachmanThe only thing that surprises me about the Russian government’s crackdown on the opposition ahead of the Duma elections on Sunday is how heavy-handed it is. President Putin is clearly keen to preserve the facade of Russian democracy and his party is cruising to victory anyway - so why bother?
An explanation of sorts was offered to me recently by Mikhail Kasyanov - once Putin’s prime minister, and now a leader of the increasingly fragmented and harried opposition. Kasyanov says that the current regime in the Kremlin is "based on the KGB spirit". He thinks that "Putin would win anyway, but the KGB mentality is risk averse. If they can eliminate risks, they’ll do it."
The trouble is that in eliminating one minor risk - that the liberal opposition might do better than expected - Putin’s government seems to be creating a bigger risk. According to Kasyanov (admittedly, not an impartial observer), Putin is keen to stick formally to the constitution and step down as president next year because "he wants to be viewed by you guys as a democrat." But when famous opposition figures like Gary Kasparov are being slung into jail, Putin’s democratic credentials appear more and more tarnished in the west. Today’s highly acerbic FT leader is - I think - fairly representative of how opinion in the west is shifting.
It is quite likely that this Sunday’s Duma elections will end up with just two parties represented in the Russian parliament - Putin’s United Russia and the Communists. This will fit well with Putin’s international strategy of presenting himself to the west as the least worst Russian alternative. But if the elections are widely written off as a charade, then Putin is weakened internationally.
That matters because he still has to handle the even trickier presidential transition. Most people seem to think Putin will stick to his word and go in May - but will somehow arrange matters so that he remains the most important person in Russia. (Kasyanov buys this analysis; the only person I’ve heard who is absolutely adamant that Putin will not step down is the even less impartial, Boris Berezovsky)
The liberals and democrats - who are likely to be wiped out in the Duma elections - will try to re-group for the presidential poll. They are all struggling to try and sound hopeful. Kasyanov - who almost certainly is planning to run himself - reckons that if the liberals can unite around a single candidate, they could get 20% of the vote in May’s presidential poll and get through to the second round "and if we do that, everything will change." The trouble is that there are quite a lot of "ifs" in that scenario.
This blog covers a variety of topics from US foreign policy to European politics and the Middle East - and whatever else happens to be in the news or catch my attention. I joined the FT as chief foreign affairs commentator in 2006, after a 15-year career at The Economist which included stints as a correspondent in Brussels, Bangkok and Washington. I write a weekly column on foreign affairs, which appears in the paper on Tuesdays. Occasionally my FT colleagues contribute posts to this blog.
Geoff Dyer is the FT's China bureau chief. He has been a correspondent in Shanghai and in Brazil and has also covered the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology industries from London.
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James Blitz is the FT's defence and diplomatic editor. He has been the FT's political editor, based in London, and Rome bureau chief. James is a former Moscow bureau chief for the Sunday Times.
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Victor Mallet is the FT's Madrid correspondent. He is a former Asia editor of the FT, and, in more than 20 years at the organisation, has also worked in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. In 1990 he escaped from Kuwait after being one of the few foreign correspondents there when Iraq invaded. 
Stefan Wagstyl is the FT's eastern Europe editor, co-ordinating coverage of the region. He has also been the FT's bureau chief in Tokyo and New Delhi.
