John Howard, Australia and the world

November 24, 2007 9:58pm

I met John Howard only once - at a breakfast in London - and he struck me as grumpy and charmless. I was obviously missing something. Howard was a phenomenally successful politician. He won four successive elections in Australia.

Now that he has finally lost, it is tempting to draw a general lesson - and there is an obvious one to hand. Foreign leaders who backed George Bush over Iraq have been punished. First Jose Maria Aznar, then Tony Blair. Now John Howard. One of Kevin Rudd’s first acts as Australian prime minister will be to start pulling troops out of Iraq.

Actually, as far as I can tell from rather a long way away, Howard’s defeat was mainly about domestic issues, like rising interest rates.

But foreign policy obviously played a role, both in his rise and in his downfall. Howard’s predecessor - Paul Keating - had decided that Australia was an "Asian country". I dont think either Australians or Asians were very convinced by this. I remember asking an Aussie diplomat in Thailand what his Thai counterparts made of Australians’ determination to be "asian" and he said that their reaction was one of "bemused tolerance." (I thought this was quite funny and put it an article, and was further amused later to see the remark foot-noted in Huntington’s book on the "Clash of Civilisations" - which just goes to show that stray remarks made at barbecues can end up as part of an academic thesis, if you don’t watch out.)

But to get back to the point. I think Howard played quite astutely on Australians’ sense that actually - they still have a lot more in common with Britain and the US - than with their Asian neighbours. (And neighbours is a relative term, Tokyo is an eight hour flight from Sydney.) His old rivals were aghast by the change in tone. One senior figure in the Labor party told me (off-the-recod unfortunately) that Howard’s new foreign policy was "to get as far up the Americans’ arse as he can possibly get."

The Iraq war may have involved burrowing just a little too far in that direction. And now I think Australia may go for a modest course correction, back towards a more Asia-centric foreign policy. It is interesting that Kevin Rudd is a fluent speaker of Mandarin Chinese - surely a first for a leader of an Anglosphere nation. And if Howard has indeed lost his own seat - which looks likely at the time of writing - that will in large part because of an influx of Asian immigrants into his constituency, who voted heavily for the Labor candidate.