The new US intelligence report on Iran is clearly a bit of a blow to those pressing for military action against Iranian nuclear facilities. As the FT explained this morning: "The key finding in the estimate, the product of more than 18 months of work by the 16 US intelligence agencies, is that Iran is probably not actively seeking to turn nuclear material into weapons."

You might expect that the only people who would be depressed by this news would be the hawks around Dick Cheney. But you would be wrong. I spent a bit of time today with some British policymakers who follow Iran and counter-proliferation closely. And they are not exactly jumping for joy.

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Europe seems intent on slicing itself up into ever smaller pieces. In the next month, Kosovo is likely to declare independence – making it the seventh new country to emerge from the wreckage of Yugoslavia. The Soviet Union has given way to 15 new states. Even in western Europe, there is talk of Belgium dividing in two, while a pro-independence party has taken power in Scotland.

People tend to treat countries that split up a bit like married couples. It is a sad event. And it is true that a unilateral declaration of Kosovan independence could cause a new crisis in the Balkans.

But if the formation of new countries can be achieved peacefully, it is usually a cause for celebration. This is the age of the small state.

The remainder of this column can be read here. Comments can be made below.

I won’t make sarcastic comments about the "carbon footprint" caused by all those world leaders convening in Bali to discuss climate change. Everybody else has already made the same point. Plus, I hate the phrase "carbon footprint". And I have some sympathy with the urge to visit Bali. Its a really nice place - the Four Seasons in Bali is probably the best hotel I have ever stayed in. I wish the delegates joy of it.

But all the bitching about Bali is in danger of obscuring the real point. Climate change is a really, really serious threat - and it is good that world leaders are at least trying to do something about it - even if they have chosen to meet in a luxury resort. Let me direct you to two articles that I think give a good idea of what is at stake.

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