February 19, 2008
Column: Why politics will not fix Pakistan
Shortly after the FT published its journalists’ “Predictions for 2008″ a colleague approached me and said: “I see you’re predicting instability in Pakistan. That’s sticking your neck out a bit, isn’t it?”
I am writing this column before the Pakistani election results have come in. But, having established a reputation for daring judgments, I am prepared to make a further prediction. Whatever happens in the parliamentary elections, there will be further instability.
In fact, as I discovered on a recent visit to the country, the real difficulty is identifying a political outcome that might actually stabilise Pakistan. Even western diplomats - who are more or less professionally obliged to look on the bright side - cannot disguise their anxiety. One describes the situation as “very bleak”.
The remainder of this column can be read here. Please post comments below.
It seems that Gen Mush’s supporters are losing the elections which, on the face of it, suggests a relatively unrigged election (although, true to form, all sides will accuse each other of malpractice). For this fact alone, I think the Pakistani government should be praised.
However, it is also very true that Pakistan has been mismanaged since her birth and that it has fundamental structural and developmental problems that have been ignored by its governments and by the West which see it only as a kind of garrison state, currently against Islamists and previously against a Soviet-aligned India. The comparison of military aid with development aid is sobering.
It will take several generations to put things right and there is much cause for pessimism as the civilian leaders (e.g. Nawaz Sharif and Bhutto) have proved to be every bit as venal and incompetent as the generals.
I make no predictions except I would
say that there will be instability which, in the circumstances, may be better than a stable, stifling, corrupt status quo that has served the people of Pakistan so badly for the past 60 years. Perhaps, an honest, Islamist government can make the country move forward in a way that the faux-westernised elites have signally failed to do.
Pakistan Zindabaad!
P
Posted by: Pacifist | February 19th, 2008 at 11:08 am | Report this commentNow that the elections seem to be in favor of the opposition members of parliament,Pakistan has become a nation that is to be a litmus test for real consensus on religion and state’s policy to democracy, human rights and economic development. What is apparent is the continued dissatisfaction and unhappiness of the majority of the Islamic population about the President Musharaff’s alignment with western powers and his concerns for human rights, security, peace and stability especially in Northwestern Pakistan a region that has been of concern to the international community.
Posted by: Henry Maigurira | February 19th, 2008 at 12:11 pm | Report this commentA good article. The extent and relative political weight of the economic sources of discontent are the key considerations and do not serve the US-led media’s story to date. When one considers the turnaround of key indicators under Shaukat Aziz Citibank-experienced leadership, this account reminds us that trickle-down approaches have a lot further to trickle down to in places like Pakistan.
Posted by: WCM | February 19th, 2008 at 12:43 pm | Report this commentOne thing I have learned from history is that democracy can be a country’s worse enemy. Pakistan is simply to corrupt and the political system to infantile to function safely, let alone properly, in the service of the people. I can guarantee that the place will become even less stable now. What can we expect?…car bombings, assasinations, economic unorthodoxy and corruption ( yes, alot more than before..can you imagine) and most scary of all, a resurgence of Wahabi extremism across all of Pakistan and afghanistan funded by $100 Saudi oil. India and Iran have the most to lose seeing how they are number 1 and 2 on the Wahababi “to kill list”.
Posted by: Reza | February 20th, 2008 at 4:16 am | Report this comment