February 19, 2008
Kosovo and self-determination
Well, Kosovo has been independent for about 24 hours, and so far things are going more or less as the British and Americans anticipated. The assumption was that there would be trouble within Kosovo itself - and violent protests in Serbia. But that Russia would restrict itself to diplomatic protests and would not escalate matters by recognising would-be statelets that want to break away from Georgia, like South Ossetia or Abkhazia. So far, that’s more or less how things are working out.
But unhappiness about the new state-of-affairs is not confined to the Balkans or Russia. As the FT reports this morning, there are several European Union countries that are refusing to recognise Kosovo - foremost among them Spain, which is worried about the implications for Basque separatism. The whole situation is a reminder that “European unity” can quickly shatter, when EU members feel that their basic national interests are at stake. The situation must be particularly awkward for Javier Solana, a Spaniard who is meant to be the very embodiment of EU foreign policy.
Concerns about “self-determination for all” are even more acute outside Europe. Philip Bowring offers an interesting take on Asian attitudes - and the concerns self-determination causes from China to India to Indonesia. For me, the Kosovo declaration is reminiscent of East Timor’s declaration of independence from Indonesia. In both cases, the new countries were so small and economically fragile that statehood seemed - on logical grounds - distinctly ill-advised. But - in both cases - their entanglement with the country that they were breaking free from was so full of blood and bitterness, that independence eventually looked like the only feasible option.
Of course, 24 hours is a little too early to say that those “far-sighted” gentlemen in charge of foreign policy in Washington and London were right.
What is the betting that the Nato-Washington will be invading Kosovo in 5-10 years’ time on grounds of it being a failed state and / or a centre for drugs, terrorism etc.?
I have to add that I have tremendous sympathy for the suffering of the Kosovars under Milosevic’s rule but I would have thought, given its size and the state of its development, Kosovo would have been better off as a UN protectorate.
Finally, I reckon next December, when you are putting together the significant events of 2008, the independence of Kosovo will be a strong candidate, due to its nasty reprecussions.
Best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | February 19th, 2008 at 3:27 pm | Report this commentWe are approaching the hour when one must reckon with the demise of the Westphalian system, accept the superstates, and rethink local/national/sectarian power. A close look at the Neocon and other agendas will reveal that others have long ago moved off the Westphalian page.
One possible repercussion of the Kosovo split will the de facto shut down of the United Nations. When one watched and listened to the talking Barbie-doll that the US sent to Nairobi yesterday, the mechanically emitted yet empty commands suggest that Washington already operates in a post-UN world.
Posted by: WCM | February 19th, 2008 at 4:28 pm | Report this commentP,
Let us hope you are wrong about nasty repercussions. I tend to think that over time, with the help of economic development, countries and people generally get along. Let’s face it, why in the world would anyone in their right mind start a conflict in the cold when they could be texting to pick a winner for X-factor, big brother or watch the champions’ league?
It seems to me that Macedonia (sorry- FYROM) is doing a good job there - seen the ads in the UK media about investing in macedonia?
What I find interesting too, is that while in principle the kosovo independence seems not quite right (see Gideon’s previous post on this), this highlights to me the power of judging one case on its own merit. Having well defined principles has the advantage of clarity, yet it doesn’t allow for the peculiarities of some situations. I’m much happier with the new found pragmatism of world leaders especially the US, than the previous knuckled-headed dogmastism.
On a different subject, Gideon, unfortunately you were right about Annapolis - now Bush’s gone to a safari, he probably forgot about the middle peace process.
Posted by: Anon | February 19th, 2008 at 4:41 pm | Report this commentFor once, P, we agree. Nasty precedent established.
Posted by: AYC | February 19th, 2008 at 4:46 pm | Report this commentI was having trouble making up my mind but the point is well taken. European governments should not have taken such a step independently. It should have been a “European” decision - it undermines European foreign and regional policy when some nation states take such a decision and others do not.The real important thing is that the EU deal with Kosovo as an independent territory.
Posted by: P | February 19th, 2008 at 9:29 pm | Report this commentnationalism is a fatal disease; nationalism supported by state internally is called fascism, nationalism supported externally even worse. feel free to define the term.
Posted by: herman | February 20th, 2008 at 12:08 am | Report this commentMy impression is that the Euro currency makes Catalonian and Basque secession from Spain much easier. They don’t have to worry about a slew of monetary issues that other secession movements (Scotland, Quebec) do have to worry about.
Posted by: Curious | February 20th, 2008 at 4:58 am | Report this commentJohn Laughland, the other day, in the Guardian, called the Kossovo UDI ” A postmodern declaration”.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/feb/19/kosovo.eu
By this he means it will be independent in name but a NATO-EU protectorate in practice.
WCM is completely right in his post. 350 years after the treaty of Wesphalia some seem to think that the treaty belongs to the museum.
These are the type of people incidentally who are designing the break-up of the midlle east into statelets along confessional lines: From Syria to Iraq to the Gulf.
Consider, however, that neither Greece nor Bulgaria nor Roumania ( and not of course Serbia)
will recognize this entity. In other words the main Balkan countries will consider it an unlawful creation.
As i wrote in my other posting on the same subject this will have implications far beyond its
area.
Ask yourselves why did Turkey and Taiwan recognised it.
Merkel called it a “sui generis situation” not justifying imitation. She is in fact hypocritical.
Posted by: MP | February 20th, 2008 at 5:57 am | Report this commentAs Putin said in his last press conference “everybody knows this is illegal”.
Those of us who read “Simplicissimus” know that the conditions that made the treaty of Westphalia necessary still obtain.
it’s intresting to see peoples point of views who actually know very little about Kosovo, yes you may gather some info through serbs propaganda but the facts and reality is totally different. Kosovo was a unique problem, i hear people comparing it with cyprus and other Russian domino provinces, bearing in mind the history and ownership of kosovo before 1912 obviously serbs have managed their propaganda pretty well.
With regards to Spain not recoganising Kosovo as independent that shows poor leadership and unable to explain the diefference between Kosovo and Basque/Catalonia, there is not even one single element that you can identify Kosovo with Basque/Catalonia.
Economy wise, lets start with how it has been invested in the 90’s that’s nothing, zillch, nada… bearing im mind this and other factors such as repression, ocupation, sacking people from work for no reason (300.000 got the sack when serbia ivaded Kosovo in one year. Natural resources are there and there is potectial i think we are richer with natural resources than Macedonia, so whats need to be happening right now is stability and hard work and i have no doubs rewards will come.
Posted by: FS | February 20th, 2008 at 9:38 am | Report this commentWe are all “unique problems”. Acceptance of Kosovo confirms the success of opportunistic “exceptionalists”. True students/adherents of the principles of democracy and its institutions have reason for deep concern–not for Kosovo, which was scratched off the lists of open items for George Bush this week, but for the moment when this cynical new world order is called to account.
Who are these new powers and what are the economic interests? I would suggest that one need not fantasise of illuminati theories. Since WWI a borderless corporatist class has evolved and most of us are part of it. In the last two decades, this class fell under the spell of Neocon revisionists and US-styled pragmatists (of the sort Anon praises). Certainly, old-style “knuckleheaded dogmatists” were/are impediments to the immediate gratification principles–and class realism–of the shareholder value system.
Orson Wells’ famous comparison of parallel centuries of Italian “exceptionalism” and Swiss brotherly love and their respective contributions to human history likely inspire many who drive this new order.
Mr Putin, who represents perhaps the most honest incarnation of leadership in this new order, is the only one who seems to have read and understood Simplicissimus and Machiavelli during the same weekend. It is becoming irresponsible to sing words of praise to Democracy and Innovative Capitalism to publics that keenly and nervously know the planet is returning to a two-tier structure. If there is any truth in Martin Wolf’s piece today about the Mother of Meltdowns in the US core, the real pain will be distributed mostly across the second tier.
As for expecting a tidy historical closure to the Treaty of Westpahalia, the best we can hope for is likely a timely update to Wikipedia.
Posted by: WCM | February 20th, 2008 at 11:19 am | Report this commentI think Kossovo deserves its independence and the free world is right to recognize it. Serbs have no moral or historical right to rule this province. Albanians must be given the benefice of the doubt and held accountable by the interantional community to protect the rights of all minorities living in Kososvo. Serbia has a terrible record of protecting the rights of minorities, this is well known.
Posted by: Jeff | February 20th, 2008 at 11:26 am | Report this commentI came back recently from Belgrade and what worries me is a nationalistic Serbia on the rise again. Serbs must go through a process of de-nazification just as Germany did after WWII and fully cooperate with int tribunal. Yes, they toppled Milosevic but not because he started wars and commited attrocites as we understand in the west, but because he lost them. This sentiment is very prevalent in Serbia today and a second Milosevic might grab power very soon there and lead Serbia to war again.
The day when serbs will be able to visit Srebrenica or Kosovo with their kids just as germans visit today Aucshitz , only then peace will come in this troubled region and the serbian nation will move forward.
Your statement that Serbia has no historic claim to Kosovo is wrong. There are those who participate in this blog who can tell you why.
Posted by: WCM | February 20th, 2008 at 1:13 pm | Report this commentWhat is curious is the double standards;
If those who want to secede belong to a NATO nation like Turkey (Kurdistan) or a US ally like Morocco (Western Sahara) then there is not much pressure.
Did anybody think about NATO troops in Eastern Turkey or Western Sahara?
Not to mention the US itself or its possessions as we remember the way in which half a million Southerners were killed when they tried to secede from the Union…
And during the 60s the way the Puerto Rican independentists were killed.
We can add that unlike common thought according to the US Census Bureau in the Southern counties of Florida assimilation is going in opposite direction from the rest of the USA as there are about 75% Spanish-speaking people while just 69% of the population are Hispanics, and that means hundreds of thousands of Anglos and blacks are being assimilated by the Spanish-speaking majority, hehehe.
Posted by: Enrique | February 20th, 2008 at 1:58 pm | Report this commentWCM “Your statement that Serbia has no historic claim to Kosovo is wrong. There are those who participate in this blog who can tell you why”
It is true that balkans produce more history than they can chew, but there is no valid historical claim today by unbiased scholars that Kosovo is the cradle of serbia or that serbia has some historic claim over Kosovo. Serbs had exactly the same claims for Slovenia and Croatia being also the cradle of their nation.
Posted by: Jeff | February 20th, 2008 at 2:26 pm | Report this commentIt is not disputed today that albanians are amongst the oldest people in Europe and Kosovo has been inhabited by them before roman times. Serbs came and setteled into the balkans from Russia only 1000 years ago approximately. All historical facts show that serbs have never been a majority in Kosovo. Claims that Kosovo is Serbia’s Jerusalem are unfortunate and ridiculous serb propoganda to exacerbate further more nationalistic serb feelings. The battle of Kosovo in medieval times fought against the turks in Kosovo, if anything, does not reinforce the serb historical claim on Kosovo. Read the history and you will find that together with serbs many albanians and others fought side by side against the turks and if the battle was lost was not because of albanians but because of high serbian betrail (in fact a large amount of serbs were simply sold out to the turks and fought side by side with them) - So please enough with outdated serbian myths.
You seem well versed in some arguments and fully subscribed to Washington wisdom on this matter. You are most likely not an Austrian. As far as modern Kosovo is concerned, its nationalists’ roots in the KLA organisation alone make this a suspect enterprise. When the going got tough and the US engaged below bomber altitudes, it enfranchised and financed militias from the murkiest Albanian corners of the province. It later used the province as an unregulated platform for less-than-blue-chip US entrepreneurs to base operations in. It turned its back on prostitution rings and the provinces new status as Europe’s drug cupboard. What honour can be found there today is due to earnest EU efforts to recover some balance from the mess the US created.
Milosevic’s sins are manifest; the extent of his responsibility for the depraved consequences will remain the subject of academic debate for a long time. KLA perversions and Albanian corruption were the backbone of a failed US approach. The weeks ahead will measure the success of the EU mission more than that of US State Department minds.
Posted by: WCM | February 20th, 2008 at 4:14 pm | Report this commentWhat people should remember about the treaty of Westphalia was that it ultimately fostered the rise of the previously rare concept of nationalism. It was Prussia that eventually harnessed this from within and the collective desire to reverse the perceived injustices of the treaty, leading ultimately to unification on the back of a successful war against France followed by two devastating world wars. Slav nationalism has its champion in Russia today and we in the West have ignored her voice over Kosovo. A declaration of independence of what has undeniably been Serbian territory is going to be an even greater cause celebre to Russia than in Spain, Greece and the rest of the dissidents on this. We should have been more careful than we have been; after all, history does sometimes has a habit of repeating itself.
Posted by: figurewizard | February 20th, 2008 at 10:48 pm | Report this commentWhen I was a little boy, there was a period in my life at the beginning of elementary school, when I did not want to have anything to do with girls. Since I discarded psychoanalytical theories as unscientific fortune telling long, long ago, the only way I could trace reasons for such behaviour was to remember. When one is looking for memories buried in a deep past, the most reliable path to follow is memories of feelings. They never really go away. So I tried to remember what I felt while passing by a group of girls at the playground. To my surprise what I remembered off was mistrust, contempt and a bit of fear. This is what opened the path to memories of events that preceded these feelings. At one point in kindergarten playing with girls turned from pleasant experience into a nightmare. They developed skills through which they presented every disaster they caused as my fault (in grown-up world this is called spin), and if that did not work out they’d start to cry (distraction with grown-ups).
When used in professional capacity, these two skills are basic tools of a politician or a lawyer.
As a mature person I still find fighting these two the most challenging tasks in life. What makes it fun for me is comprehension that whenever I run into a person using those, I am actually dealing with a little girl (intellectually), who is either lying to grown-ups, or trying to induce their sympathy and make them forget about the mess she made.
When neocons lost control of US State Department, individuals like Daniel Fried, Serve & co got free reign. They managed to organize amicable welcome for G.W. in Europe and created an instant Albanian friend. The decider decided again, EU franchises followed and rushed to destabilize Balkans.
Serbian government is having a very difficult time in controlling public anger over Kosovo. Government sponsored protests are the only way to achieve this. It would be much easier to give them guns and send them southwards.
As for little girls in EU governments, they all rushed today to make themselves known. Instead sympathising with government efforts to vent the public anger, even if it meant that police was sent to embassies a bit later (material damage can always be repaired), this time they remembered International Law and spun, spun, spun…
Gideon, I thought your former colleagues in Economist only lacked information and that was the reason Economist articles on the subject (btw with predictions that kept proving wrong very next day) sounded serbofobic. Their recent move in cartoonist direction, and the fact that they kept racially abusive comments up for days after they were reported, has proven me wrong. This type of mobbing has been seen in Europe before, but usually not in UK.
Kind regards,
Dusan
Posted by: Dusan | February 22nd, 2008 at 7:30 pm | Report this commentNot so long ago here, we had one of the more interesting discussions about this very subject…in any event, it is hardly surprising that now that this has happened that many countries are getting squeamish. Afterall, any country (and there are many) with a specific geographic area and a population dominated by a specific ethnic minority are now vulnerable to be “Kosovoed.” i.e., ethnic minorities demanding autonomy or even secession or joining up with a neighboring country. Kosovo has set the precedent for succession and that oppression by the majority group is enough to warrant this…. Due to the fact that I am following the Gaza situation closely (i.e., intra Palestinian conflict, the Blockade, the Egyptian/Gaza barrier breat thru, the anticipated prison exchange of Marwan/Gilad) I am reading a great deal of Israeli and Arab press reports. There were 2 Kosovo/self-determination related stories this week….a Fatah leader floated the idea that the Palestinians in occupied territories should pull their own “Kosovo” (Abbas quickly quashed the idea!) and an even more interesting article in HaAretz that asserts that Israel has some real concerns about the possible precedent Kosovo is setting as leading Arab intellectuals at Haifa University see the potential for the area of N. Israel, the Galilee (Galil) which is dominated by an Arab majority could ptentially pull their own “kosovo” and announce succession from Israel !
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | February 23rd, 2008 at 5:08 pm | Report this commentCongrats for the awe-inspiring Blog!
Could you please comment about the Segolene Royal affair at Harvard regarding her reported support for the independence of the US territory of Porto Rico?
http://5-yearslater.com/index.php/2008/03/14/2118-segolene-royal-favorable-a-l-independance-de-porto-rico
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%A9gol%C3%A8ne_Royal#L.27affair:_Vive_le_Porto_Rico_Libre
If she can say this about Porto Rico, she may consider saying the same about Wales, right!?
Thanks!
Posted by: __PP__ | March 19th, 2008 at 12:15 am | Report this comment