April 15, 2008
Column: Power and Russia’s backyard
In Winston Churchill’s memoirs, he records a meeting with Stalin in October 1944: “The moment was apt for business, so I said ‘Let us settle our affairs in the Balkans… So far as Britain and Russia are concerned, how would it do for you to have 90 per cent predominance in Romania, for us to have 90 per cent of the say in Greece and go 50-50 about Yugoslavia?’ While this was being translated, I wrote out the percentages on a half-sheet of paper. I pushed this across to Stalin… There was a slight pause. Then he took his blue pencil and made a large tick upon it, and passed it back to us. It was all settled in no more time than it takes to set down.”
I was in Georgia – Stalin’s birthplace – last week. The country regained its independence in 1991. But its leaders fear that they may yet be subject to a modern version of the Churchill-Stalin percentages deal – in which the west casually assigns Georgia into Moscow’s “sphere of influence”.
The remainder of this column can be read here. Please post comments below.
A balance of power is also about self-restraint, something that the USA are particularly bad at exercising these days (witness e.g. the ludicrous missile defense shield). It would probably be good to define more clearly the limits of NATO (and of the EU for that matter!). A potentially ever-expanding NATO (or EU) can only be perceived as a menacing, expansionist force in the long run. Appeasement is not necessarily about getting all to sign up to “our camp” at the risk of over-extending ourselves and becoming ipso facto drawn into every squabble that does not affect our core interests.
Posted by: Philippe Wacker | April 15th, 2008 at 9:30 am | Report this commentQuote
As one western diplomat puts it: “Either the ex-Soviet countries are independent states, or they are not.”
Unquote
I wonder what that Western diplomat says about the US relations with the rest of the world.
Examples are legion:
The pertpetrator of torture in Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, the home to Blackwater and the executoneer of “Shock and Awe” sees fit to give others lessons on Human Rights.
The same America whose military expenditure is more than the rest of the world combined, has the audacity to ask China to clarify why her military expenditure is increasing.
The same US of A whose quest for energy supplies causes her to support vile dictatorships in the Middle East, Central Asia and W Africa, has the cheek to request Switzerland the details of her contract to purchase gas from Iran.
The same Uncle Sam who congratulates the Azeri regime for “electing” the dead president’s son as the new president, in an entirely sham process, has the nerve to call into question other countries’ elections. (Now we shut up about how Bush stole the elections himself).
In short, the states’ relationships in the world are determined by their respective abilities to project power and not by any form of moral authority. The US actions (including their attempted encirclement of Russia through Nato) testify to that fact and Russia and China take note.
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 15th, 2008 at 10:22 am | Report this commentSpheres of influence? Constantly changing - Taiwan and Kosovo are other examples of shifting empires.
The Falkland Islands is an example of the hundreds of territorial disputes around the world, still unresolved at the UN.
Posted by: Slightly Optimistic | April 15th, 2008 at 11:02 am | Report this comment“The risk may be a small one.”
Posted by: Alexei R. (southern Ukraine) | April 15th, 2008 at 11:15 am | Report this commentYou at all do not imagine, what is that risk. By your article you don’t understand that questionat at all. The risk of total war, actually, is big so much, as never. In case of the introduction of Ukraine into NATO in Ukraine there will be a civil war. And Russia will support a south-east of Ukraine, and the NATO will support north-west. Military opposition of Russia and NATO will not be such hidden any more as in Korea or Vietnam and Afghanistan. First of all because in Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan there was no russian population. Ukraine too integrated to Russia historically and ethnically. Russia never will admit introductions of Ukraine into NATO, and not because it is its sphere of influence, but by strategic, historical and ethnic reasons. It is too much reasons that it simply to name “sphere of influence”.
In Georgia the situation is little bit other. Russian and prorussian enclaves were already actually separated from Georgia. And these enclaves are placed in strategic passes on territory of Russia from territory of Georgia. Russia will not admit violent or even peace connection of these enclaves to Georgia, first of all from strategic military reasons. The introduction of Georgia into NATO automatically imposes war of Russia and NATO.
Really all of you there in the WEST so wish nuclear war? You push rotten theses about ” free and defensive ” alliance, not understanding at all what horrifying consequences will cause your fanatical actions.
The problem is that NATO is seen very differently from inside and from outside. It looks like the bunch of NATO bureaucrats may do any atrocity in order to achieve their goal of “NATO credibility” I remember Jamie O’Shea (NATO spokesman during their war against the Serbs) telling that it was “war for credibility”. Did they convince a lot of people outside their ranks?
Now in Ukraine there are still people not hating us the Russians sufficiently. They have family and human ties to Russia, you know? Their president says that NATO membership will help them to secure the border with Russia… and a lot of other smart things. Therefore strong pressure to join them into such a lousy (or most successful? depends only on your point of view!) Organization tears the country apart. As Alexei R pointed out. Why don’t they just leave us alone and let us sort out the problems?
Posted by: Dmitry | April 15th, 2008 at 12:19 pm | Report this commentThe majority of Chechs are against the placing of Missile Systems in Chechia. Their leadership imposes it on them –undemocratically.
The general idea of establishing “a cordon sanitairaire” around Russia from Finland to Georgia is a stability enhancing measure. This area of course
should have no national troops in it.
The idea of completing the encirclement of Russia with Ukraine and Georgia is really dangerously mad. Presumably Russia would be pushed out of the Black Sea –
be made an enclosed space whereas
NATO troops would roam its borders from
the Caucusus to the Baltic.
This is not sustainable:
The Ukrainian oligarchs in the east are against this idea. They would be ready to finance the spliting of Ukraine.
There is already a political movement in Crimea pushing for the introduction of the russian language as an official language. The political instability which will be introduced into Ukraine by this move will make Kossovo look like a tea party. Btw the Russians are already laying the ground work for such
an eventuality
I have no problem with Georgia joining NATO as long as no foreign troops land there.
Posted by: Cassandra | April 15th, 2008 at 1:03 pm | Report this commentCorrection: The “cordon sanitaire’ should have no non national troops in it.
Posted by: Cassandra | April 15th, 2008 at 1:05 pm | Report this comment“If the Russians were concluding military alliances with Mexico and Canada, I think we might have some concerns”
That is exactly the point. Imagine. For some reason US faces dramatic financial crisis with huge budget and foreign assignations cuts (like Russia in the 1990s). Crisis affects Canada, crisis affects Mexico. At some point Canadian/Mexican party leader says: “Enough! We want to leave US sphere of influence and become friends with Russians/Europeans/Chinese” or whatever.
And this becomes a one way road. Leader gets foreign financial and PR support from guess who? Promises alliances and political support for initiatives of guess who? And finally gets stuck up, because deprives himself of an opportunity to officially change his mind. No mater what people think.
How do you think American neo-cons would treat that?
One thing should definitely be considered and I think it was not mentioned in the article. No matter what “spheres of influence” we draw on the map, Ukraine and Georgia should be independent. I mean not dependent on Russia, not dependent on US/NATO, but INDEPENDENT.
This requires a stable political system, which is focused on internal rather than foreign policy issues.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 15th, 2008 at 1:06 pm | Report this commentThere is not a SINGLE objective and rational reason for Russia to fear NATO’s expansion to the East. Is it really possible for NATO declaring war on Russia and attacking it? Come on!
The current Russian leadership does not want the area of dominance of democratic values and principles to spread, as these are rules they’re not used to play in. It definitely IS a matter of “spheres of influence” in that stone age Soviet meaning - that does dominate in the brains of former KGB officers ruling the poor unlucky Russia.
Posted by: czalex, Russia-Belarus | April 15th, 2008 at 2:01 pm | Report this commentczales: “The current Russian leadership does not want the area of dominance of democratic values and principles to spread”
Nato is a military organisation. Militaries are there to kill people and break things, not spread democratic values and principles.
Russian leadership might be a lot of things but they are not gullible.
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 15th, 2008 at 2:09 pm | Report this commentczalex,
That reason was stated by Yavlinskiy. Belgrade. And Russian minorities as well.
I do not agree on NATO being area of dominance of democratic values and principles. This flag belongs to EU. Otherwise you would have to hold a referendum in Iraq and Afghanistan prior to invade.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 15th, 2008 at 2:17 pm | Report this commentCzalex: Give us a good reason for the existence of NATO as a military block.
My view: It is a relic of the cold war and it sshould be abolished.
Humanity now faces problems such as famine!! , poverty, desertification,
Posted by: Cassandra | April 15th, 2008 at 3:15 pm | Report this commentclimate change in general and globalized threats that must be handled
urgently. I do not want the Russians or the Chinese to keep on looking suspiciously backwards.
Pacifist: NATO is a military organisation.
But at the same time it has only democratic members in contrast to UN.
Military intrusion is needed in some conlicts. Take Sudan and see how UN was timely and ‘effecient’ there.
UN cannot do anything against undemocratic regimes due to having these regimes on board.
NATO does not have such regimes. Thus US wants to shape it as a better alternative for UN in resolving conflicts.
You can tell many negative things about Nato missions failures to Afganistan and Iraq. But without those missions, girls in A. would not have any chance of education, historical monuments would be erased, and people in Iraq would live in fear of religous or ethnic or political vengeance and also starvation.
To ask your question regarding US asking China. Does China has any military mission in other country to free people of the country from dictator or religious fanatics?
People in Ukraine do not support Nato only due to old Soviet and current Russian propaganda (most people in Ukraine have one or more Russian TV channels - owned or controlled by Russian state). Croatia and other Eastern European countries had the same problem with popularity of Nato among its people, but they solved it or entered Nato notwistanding popularity (take Bulgaria).
Cassandra is not well informed: Crimea has Russian, Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar as official languages in its Regional Constitution, but there is only 1 or 2 Ukrainian language schools there. The rest are Russian. So there is no problem with language there.
The Ukrainian oligarchs in the east are NOT ready to finance the spliting of Ukraine as this would lead to political instability. They all now think about IPO on London SE or the like. Political instability would NOT increase their capital value. In fact their Regions Party voted several years ago to enact a Military Doctrine of Ukraine (law) which says that Ukraine is to enter Nato.
Ukrainians wish to join Nato as they are tired to hear passages from Russian policians like the last one from Putin when he said to Bush ‘Ukraine is not even a state’ and threatened to encourage the secession of Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
Posted by: kostkirnas, Ukraine | April 15th, 2008 at 3:25 pm | Report this commentCassandra: “My view: It [NATO] is a relic of the cold war and it sshould be abolished.”
Agree. It is a relic, not sure it should be abolished. But it needs to be restructured and re-focused with a new mandate.
I am surprised the Czechs are not kicking up a real fuss about their government’s agreement to participate in the US missile defense program. This is anecdotal but in a short visit their last summer I heard distain about for for the US imposed program.
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 15th, 2008 at 3:45 pm | Report this commentDear kostkirnas,
I am not sure if your post is a serious one or a tongue in cheek wind up so I will restrict my response to saying that the lesson of both Iraq and Afghanistan is that military intervention has not resolved their problems and has added to it with long-term consequences likely to be even worse than the already miserable short-term ones.
I also think it is frightening that after 5 year of Iraq, somebody should turn up and say “Does China has any military mission in other country to free people of the country from dictator or religious fanatics?”
Presumably, you think that is why
America is in Iraq/Afghanistan? (Do you stop and think why then isn’t the US in Saudi Arabia instyead of Iraq?).
Best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 15th, 2008 at 3:55 pm | Report this commentLisa-Helene Lawson: It is not a surprise that many decisions are done by political elite without popular consent. The reason: politicians know MUCH MORE about any topic at stake then some farmer.
Take Switzerland which has popular vote on everything. I was hearing some time ago former Swiss President saying the people are so stupid wishing to be out of EU: Switzerland anyway needs to conform to EU rules on many things, but it has no voice on creating these rules.
Czechs.
Posted by: kostkirnas, Ukraine | April 15th, 2008 at 3:58 pm | Report this commentTake new EU treaty. Not many counties would hold referendums. So I am surprised that you are not ‘kicking up a real fuss’ in UK about it (if you are in UK or other Europaen country) - saying it in your words.
Pacifist: My view is that country without democracy does not necessarily need military or any other (political pressure) intrusion by democracies.
Iran’s Shah was not worse then current regime there. The same is with Saudi A. I guess: do you think the people there would not elect Ahmadinejad’s like if they have no king?
Also I do not think US is in Iraq MOSTLY to free iraqis.
However only in many years one can say whether Iraq or Afganistan intrusion was good for their peoples. You should not forget that Afganistan was in some stage of war for many decades BEFORE Nato came there. Iraqi Kurds are much happier now in respect to their ethnic rights as well as some other groups. To prove - many iraqis were happy when Saddam was hung.
Posted by: kostkirnas, Ukraine | April 15th, 2008 at 4:13 pm | Report this commentwell I was not thinking about referendums…the agreement must be ratified by Czech parliament…that is the level of protest that I was thinking about which would reflect the views of their voter/supporters …and living in California which has passed many of a half-assed referendum due to a very lazy dysfuctional state legislature not doing its job…I agree with you somewhat…I suppose the Czechs and the Poles see this as job creation…I think for a variety of reasons it is a mistake…
This business of Russia as bogey man gets tedious. Russia has the potential to play a positive role on the world stage…I am hoping it gets to host a post Annapolis Israel-Palestinian & Syria peace conferenece in Moscow, with a united Palestinain (hamas/Fatah) delegation in attendance with Israelis in the near future…
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 15th, 2008 at 4:26 pm | Report this commentDrae kos,
Now I am confused. What are you in favour of? Were you in favour of intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq because they were run by obscurantist thugs? In which case why aren’t you in favour of intervention in Saudi Arabia or Egypt?
If those nice Americans kindly bombed the Iraqis to bring them freedom, why didn’t they do it to the Saudis and Egyptians (who provided almost all the 9/11 bombers)?
Could it be perhaps because they support the thugs in Egypt and Saudi and prop them up themselves? If so, what this makes of their claims to be in Iraq for the sake of democracy?
Best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 15th, 2008 at 4:28 pm | Report this commentkostkirnas
Posted by: Alexei R. (southern Ukraine) | April 15th, 2008 at 5:07 pm | Report this comment” from Putin when he said to Bush ‘Ukraine is not even a state’”
It’s not enough that Putin has told. It not the occasion to be at enmity with all russian people, to enter hostile blocks. My parents live in Russia, and what you propose to me(?) to go & democratize them by humanitarian bombardments? Just like in Iraq? I’ll take my SVD and I’ll go to shoot NATOsoldiers more likely, than even I’ll reflect to go against Russia.
Russia its not Putin, Russia its people, our native people.
Lisa-Helene Lawson: I agree that Russia could be much more positive on the international arena.
Hopefully it will be some time.
Pacifist: Iraq situation before invasion was a deadlock: Oil-for-Food was not used for food very much by Saddam. Thus people were more and more impoverished. Also there were SIGNIFICANT human rights abuses towards Kurds, political oponnents, etc.
Afgan situation with human rights was also very bad.
Whereas human rights abuses by governments of S.A. and Egypt are much less systimatic.
Supporting thugs is not the reason I guess since US was supporting different regimes in the region and the world which afterwards it bombed.
Yes, it is a shame to US and the West that Sudan was not treated the same as Iraq and Afganistan, since Darfur and other problems were very significant - even bigger than those in Iraq. (only a minor excuse to the West iro Sudan maybe that Africa has always been ‘productive’ on genocides, etc. to the extent that the West got used to these thing in Africa and never knew how to treat African problems).
Likewise it is a shame to the West that it treated Ukraine differently comparing treating Baltic and other CEE countries iro Nato.
Posted by: KostKirnas, Ukraine | April 15th, 2008 at 5:11 pm | Report this commentAlexei R.: Do you think Bulgarians will ever go against Russia since Bulgaria is in Nato?
Really it is to the benefit of Russia that more CEE countries become Nato members as they would never think to bomb Russia (unless bombed by Russia I guess)
Posted by: KostKirnas, Ukraine | April 15th, 2008 at 5:17 pm | Report this comment“But Georgia is locked into territorial disputes with Russia – and its geographical position would make it harder to defend than the Baltic states”.
There is serious misrepresentation in this statement. Georgia does not have territorial disputes with Russia. It is Russia who is waging an undeclared war for annexation of two Georgian regions: Abkhazia and so called South Ossetia.
As for Geography Georgia has direct border with NATO member Turkey and Black Sea cost.
Posted by: Aleksander | April 15th, 2008 at 6:06 pm | Report this commentKostKirnas
Posted by: Alexei R. (southern Ukraine) | April 15th, 2008 at 7:32 pm | Report this commentWhere was Bulgaria when NATO was bombing Serbia?
Nobody was bombing Russia, cos Russia strong. But what you will do when US will constract anti-missle shield in Ukraine. Nobody will ask you, want you that or not, like in Chechia & Poland. Every such shield are weakens russian nuclear potential. So who will pressing the red button? You? Or me? No, it will be unkle Sam, but you & me will be punished by Russia for that, even if we aren’t choise to be or not to be for shield on our land. If you think this never happens-you wrong. As more NATO increasing, as more Russia weakens. As more Russia weakens, as more temptation to subdue its extensive open spaces full of useful minerals. Not I have thought up it, it is the first law of any war.
Do YOU want war in our land? Or you think “democracy” & “freedom” will protect you from nuke? Ukraine in NATO it’s way to the end.
Нас невозможно сбить с пути, нам пофигу куда идти.
Alexei is right. When the overwhelming majority of the Ukrainian population is against NATO and apart from the Catholic Western enclaves (Lviv) most Ukrainians feel closer by language, religion and history to the Russian Federation than to the USA then it is evident Ukrainian admission in NATO against the will of the People will mean the secession of the Eastern (Donetsk) and Southern (Crimea) oblasts.
We all know that “Europe” is not Sovereign. We are under a clear U.S. military domination, a Protectorate as it can be confirmed by the fact that the Commanders in Chief of our Armies are under the Supremme Command of SACEUR Viceroy, Bantz J. Craddock. Europe is as Free as India under British Colonial Rule. And every step the European Union does trying to develop a Sovereign Defense (as Chirac, Schroeder and Zapatero tried) faces the negative response from the American Dictator…
Posted by: Enrique | April 15th, 2008 at 8:44 pm | Report this commentThere was more to the October 1944 meeting. It turned out also a drinking competition, of which Stalin, Churchill ans Molotov walked out on their own feet. It was also in part a show by two war-worn leaders, both knowing their countries were - economically - among the losers in the war. And it took only two years for Churchill to denounce publicly the afterwar agreements in his Fulton speech.
If the old allies & enemies want to look at the spheres of influence of today, they have in part lost one of their reasons to exist. The Union of the Soviets is no more on way to the world domination - by revolution. In real terms it has turned to the commercialisation of its immense ressources which must be defended too. For that basic reasons it can not go on giving the impression that anything can be dome with the old imperial frontiers.
But the real problems are going to emerge in the far east. In the west the problem is very much that of an adaptation of the Russian system to that built up by the USA and the European Union. It will take time but by its end and with good luck Ukraine and Georgia and Russia end up as parts of the Eurtopean strategic space. The beginnings of that way of seeing were already there.
Posted by: Penttijuhani | April 15th, 2008 at 10:59 pm | Report this comment“Croatia and other Eastern European countries had the same problem with popularity of Nato among its people”
Democracy ends up, when people become a problem.
Sad thing about Russia and I don’t think its something great to be copied by the West. People become problem for Yushenko, people become problem for Saakashvili. Bush has a bunch of nations that appear to be a problem and should be “democratised” without their own will.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 16th, 2008 at 6:23 am | Report this commentGR”I was in Georgia – Stalin’s birthplace – last week. The country regained its independence in 1991. But its leaders fear that they may yet be subject to a modern version of the Churchill-Stalin percentages deal – in which the west casually assigns Georgia into Moscow’s “sphere of influence”.”
I don’t buy all this “sphere of influence” crap. That’s like “Cheneythink”, it seems very passe… Georgia and Ukraine should see it as a blessing in disquise that they were not invited to join NATO…Richard Haass has written here at FT a compelling and intriguing essay that we are entering an era of “non-polarity”… I think he is on to something.
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 16th, 2008 at 7:25 am | Report this commentMy dear fellow Russians and Ukrainians. Stop talking about popular attitude to NATO in Ukraine. We just do not know how people would vote on this matter. I live in Ukraine and I know that most people here simply think nothing of NATO excluding a handful of freaks like yourselves. In no way people in whatever part of Ukraine will take up arms and brake away. Most of them are just learning how to leave well, and sniffing gunpowder is the last thing they want now. As I mentioned in my previous post that Yuschenko and Timoshenko got the largest share of votes during latest election and everyone in Ukraine knows too well that they want Ukraine to join NATO.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 16th, 2008 at 8:21 am | Report this comment.
On the motives and consequences of the project to expand NATO to Ukraine , insanity or crass ignorance can be pleaded !
millions of Russian soldiers died to free Rus soil from another western aggression
It would be a dangerous world if Russians had a foreign policy based on poker bluff ,
would the west go to nuclear war for the Baltic states ?? care to raise ??
we will probably never know , they would rather , thankfully , play chess .
The subject of sphere of influence is a non starter , it’s some kind of geo-physic
one’s influence is directly related to one’s mass , it doesn’t quite stop at the fence !
to say that Russia has no veto in NATO is disingenuous , true only on procedural grounds
I was fascinated by the internal currents in the alliance ,
G.W. bush by most accounts and deeds forcefully pushed this project
even visiting Ukraine beforehand
reportedly phoning A. Merkel repeatedly to shift her refusal ,
she responded by giving a speech to the bundeswher officers affirming her opposition
during the summit , leaders of the new Europe surrounded her at one point , in a great noisy disorder
to make her change her mind .
Germany for the first time took the lead opposing the U.S. policy and at Nato of all place !!
all large western nations were aligned on Germany , even Britain , usually the not-European European
in the U.S. corner were such economic heavy weight as Latvia , Poland and the usual suspects
they are now left to ponder the consequences of too close an alignment on aggressive U.S. policy
it wasn’t long before the polish president ( the remaining twin ) had to retract his brave fighting words
that he would block European business with Russia , Bulgaria got a shot across her bow ,
she was reminded that her European membership is somewhat tenuous .
Germany has a large stake in her “ostpolitic” there is gas of course but there is also a continent sized
Posted by: jeannick | April 16th, 2008 at 8:29 am | Report this commentcountry rich in resources and with a prodigious consumer market .
an hinterland to ensure German imports are paid with exports for generations
Bismark saw it , so did Hitler , in a less successful manner
a German leader willing to throw it away to follows a mad piper would have had all German business in arms
.
Another funny thing is terminology. “Former Soviet Union” – it’s a disgrace. No one ever called Austria or Check Republic or Germany “former Third Reich”. In Ukraine people live differently. I remember Soviet Union very well and I served in Soviet military in Poland and I can tell you that there is a huge difference between “homo soveticus” and a Ukrainian Citizen. We want to forget about our stupid past and want to build a new free and prosperous country. I think that terms like “former SU” are not politically correct to say the least.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 16th, 2008 at 8:41 am | Report this commentWould be very interesting to see how Germany benefits from Russia. Yes, Bismarck had his ideas about Russian resources as well as Hitler nevertheless Stalin had HIS idea about Germany. I do not believe that history should go in circles. I do not think that benefiting from Russia will result in another world war but something equally stupid might happen in the future.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 16th, 2008 at 9:08 am | Report this commentTo Ivanchenko:
I know a few Ukrainians from Donetsk, Dnednopetrovsk some of Russian extraction, some pure Ukrainians. This is their view: The Russian-Ukrainians will have nothing to do with any scheme
hidden or overt whose real purpose is to put pressure on Russia. Nato is such an instrument. Neither the ukrainians nor the russians like the corruption in KIev and elsewhere. That is the reason they voted Yushenko/Timoshenko. The corruption continues. Eventually this group will decay either because Yushenko does not get along with Timoshenko or because of the continuous decay of its political base. If you look at the Rada
and the way the votes get done you will know these fellows are barely surviving.
It is a shame that Yushenko is supporting the veterans of Nazi collaborators. Those who served in the red Army do not like this.
A huge number of Ukrainians want Russian as an official language. The same way the french is a second official language in Canada. Yushenko is trying to kill the russian language in eastern ukraine by disallowing its teaching there, Not very intelligent, this. It is dividing Ukraine. Crimea is
russian land (ex Tatar) given to Ukraine by Khrushev. Very stupid. Who gave him the right?
Russia has power in Germany because of the huge amount of orders for machinery which goes from russia to germany and the energy it exports. Ukraine is not updating its machinery because very little updating is going on. (That is why there are so many acciedents in the coal mines).
If germany had to choose between russia and ukraine it would choose russia. (Putin speaks german and Yushenko only does english– his wife is american. This is synbolic, in a way). Russia is too big to pick a fight against it. Ukraine is divided ethnically and otherwise. (1/3 the size of Russia)
Kiyv is not Ukraine. You have to consider Lvov, Odessa, Kharkov, Kherson, Donetst, Dnednopetrovsk etc and see how each one of these places fits into this relationship. (with russia)
Yannukovich is also weak and does not seem to grasp the total picture. He did one good thing when he was in power, He paid the salaries and the pensions in the east. Kuchma was thoroughly corrupt. Where did Timoshenko find her 2BN$?
Posted by: Cassandra | April 16th, 2008 at 10:10 am | Report this commentSo as you can see Ukraine has huge problems: CORRUPTION, national question and bad politicians all around. This is not healthy. Joining NATO will break you up.
1.When I hear G.W. and neocons want to expand democracy to Russia I think T.G. we have nuclear weapon :). Many times Russia defended from west invaders: 1612 - Poland, 1812 - Napoleon’s France, 1854 - west alliance in Crimean war, 1941 - Hitler’s Germany and so on. So our historical experience teach to oppose NATO.
2.As for Ukrain, let’s they give back our lands, south east part incl. Crimea, and tnen join NATO. In other case definitely will be problems imho :).
Posted by: Andrey, Moscow | April 16th, 2008 at 10:56 am | Report this commentThis “former Soviet Union” terminology is mostly used to describe a fragment on the world map. Since some overseas polititians have problems with remembering name of each country. I’m sure this relict will disappear in 5 to 10 years.
“I can tell you that there is a huge difference between “homo soveticus” and a Ukrainian Citizen”.
Vadim, that is not brilliant. I mean it would be more appropriate to say that the new generation of Ukrainians/Georgians/Russians dramatically differs from elder ones. Our granfathers are not responsible for the system and they have a right to be called individuals.
“Would be very interesting to see how Germany benefits from Russia”.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 16th, 2008 at 10:59 am | Report this commentHuge and fast growing market. Largest in Europe in some categories of goods, including automobiles (one of Germany’s main exports). And I’m more optimistic on political benefits if Medvedev will have power to implement at least 1/3 of his publically stated ideas. Read some of them, they are awesome. Like if you were invited to multinational corporation Board.
I think it is impressive that so many Russians and Ukrainians read the FT and write English so fluently.
Of itself, this shows how much more open those societies have become to foreign influences (at least at the younger, more educated end). Admittedly, not all foreign influences are benign but, at least, you get to consider a variety of viewpoints which is always helpful.
What is less impressive is that their parents seem to call them mainly Alex or Anderi
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 16th, 2008 at 11:27 am | Report this comment.
Posted by: jeannick | April 16th, 2008 at 11:28 am | Report this commentTo Alexei R.
Droug , the west is always trying to kill Russians ,
think Napoleon , think crimea war , think first world war , great patriotic war , cold war and now oil war
the same criminals are waiting , the teutonics from Riga , the poles and whomever is the Bolchoi Natchalnik in the west
Russia must be strong and feared or else she will be eaten and her people made slaves
millions of Russians soldiers died to free Ukraine while Britain cowered in front of three German divisions in the far off corner of north Africa
Yugoslavia or Greece did better fighting !
now they want to steal everything and said Kasparov the Azerbaijan’s jew with help from the national-Bolsheviks is for freedom ???
Russia has been friendly and has been kicked and insulted , missile system are made ready to make a devastating First Strike an option .
Too much accommodation is making Russia a juicy target , don’t play chess , play poker
take the balts and ask NATO
… unlimited nuclear war anyone ???
.
jeannick:
Posted by: KostKirnas, Ukraine | April 16th, 2008 at 4:03 pm | Report this commentOne important correction:
millions of Russians AND UKRAINIANS AND A LOT OF GEORGIANS, ETC. soldiers died to free Ukraine
Cassandra, your fears of poor Russians being not allowed to speak their language are slightly exaggerated. I myself am a so called Russian speaking Ukrainian, I live in Kiev and have no problems with my Russian at all. My kid goes to Ukrainian school and fluently speaks both languages because they are so similar. I noticed that people complaining about Ukrainian as a rule are not happy that Ukraine exists as such. There had been numerous checks by all kinds of representatives from European Council dedicated to clearing up the situation with languages in Ukraine and all of them confirmed that as far as languages are concerned Ukrainian is OK. Who is it you trust more Russian media or European institutions? Russian politicians do not care about people in Eastern Ukraine because if they did they would speak of things like welfare, healthcare and so on because this is their real problem. I know those people. I tell you they simply do not care about NATO or even the language they speak. Sustenance is all they worry about.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 16th, 2008 at 5:14 pm | Report this commentNazi collaborator veterans actually had been fighting both Germans and Russians. Some Soviet veterans killed so many Ukrainians a German couldn’t dream of and it’s a shame you condemning one criminal and holding up another. SU joined Nazis when they attacked Poland and the Russians were quick to get their share of spoils. Soviet Union had been collaborating with Nazis up to the point when Germans attacked it.
Sorry for my ignorance but what are the principal differences between Russians, Ukrainians and Belurussians?
Are these basically the same people which, due to the huge expanse of their habitat, have slightly different cersions of the same language and culture or are they so fundamentally different that they need to live in different countries?
My question is partly inspired by my travels in Central Asia where many of the educated locals seemed to feel that the divisions between Uzbeks / Turkmens / Kazakhs / Kirghiz people are quite artificial and they are basically the same people and culture.
Best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 16th, 2008 at 5:47 pm | Report this commentcorrection: cersions …..versions
Posted by: Pacifist | April 16th, 2008 at 5:49 pm | Report this commentSpeaking of Germans benefiting from Russia again. There is a soviet book where one character tells ather one “Shura, help yourself to the dinner and remember that for every vitamin you eat I will demand from you many petty favors”. Germany eventually may be treated like this. The Germans would not like it but will they have a choice? So many other countries, neighbors generally, know Russians so well and they want to get away from them and here come the smart Germans and rash in from where so many others run. Well, well. Good luck.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 16th, 2008 at 6:14 pm | Report this commentto pacifist - no they are not the same. How would you explain the difference in political systems for instance?
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 16th, 2008 at 6:39 pm | Report this commentAre Czechs and Slovaks the same? English and Scots? Castilians and Catalans? Americans and Canadians? — in all these cases the answer is yes and no. There are grades and shades, big and small differences depending on perspective — ultimately all human society forms one vast continuum.
Posted by: RCS | April 16th, 2008 at 7:51 pm | Report this commentThere are certain cultural differences. Accent, behavior, traditional foods and etc. Although sometimes its uneasy to see ones due to a very large percent of joint families in all three countries. For example my mother had a Ukranian last name before she married my father.
Its kind of disappointing to hear KGB style comments from neghbours, but that is as our finance minister Kudrin says “the price that Russia pays for its foreign policy”.
As long as neo-cons will be strong in NATO countries, they will neo-cons inside Russia.
To my point of view Ukraine is large enough and stong enough to hold independent foreign policy. Not dancing with neo-cons from the both sides.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 17th, 2008 at 4:35 am | Report this commentI mean they will feed neo-cons inside Russia.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 17th, 2008 at 4:45 am | Report this commentOne of the biggest differences between Ukrainians and Russians is that Ukrainians in general never actually accepted the Tsarist culture. Ukraine was dominated mainly by Ukrainian Cossacks who were a product of Mongol invasion and who we Eastern Europe’s response to their military tactics, because traditional European tactics proved useless against them. Here is a quote from “Early European History” by Hutton Webster - “at a great battle in Silesia they (Mongols) destroyed knighthood of Germany and filled nine sacks with right ears of sloughed enemy”. To be able to fight Mongols and later Turks and being located in the crossroads of so many nations’ interests the Cossacks had to have very effective leadership and they never really cared for the hereditary rubbish. Cossack leaders had to be elected long before British came up with their Parliament. There was one and only one key to staying in power – success. Cossack culture lives on with a vast majority of Ukrainians today, which any Ukrainian (except may be some Russian Ukrainians) now would readily admit. This is one of the reasons why it’s so irrelevant for us now to accept any kind of Neo Tsarist lifestyle which Russians currently are trying so hard to impose on us and this is one of the reasons why we think that NATO membership could help us a lot.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 17th, 2008 at 8:15 am | Report this comment1.It is funny that most part of posts here are from russians and ukrainians.
Posted by: Andrey, Moscow | April 17th, 2008 at 8:48 am | Report this comment2. Vadim Ivanchenko posts about russians (”know Russians so well and they want to get away from them”) look like complaints of ex wife to new lover - USA. Ok, get back our lands, pay your bills youeself and get away.
Alexey all I can tell you is wife yourself and Russian state is responcible for milions of sloughed Ukrainians. Estern Ukraine was once densly populated by ethnic Ukrainians and now they are replased by mainly Russians.How come? And where did thouse Ukrainians go? It is Russians who have to pay the price for their sadistic ocupation, rule, and our depleted resources.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 17th, 2008 at 9:06 am | Report this commentSorry, Andrey I ment to say Andrey not Alexey.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 17th, 2008 at 9:20 am | Report this commentGuys, don’t replace Putin with “Russians” and Yushenko/Timoshenko with “Ukranians”. That is not FT style.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 17th, 2008 at 10:26 am | Report this commentI see that Mr. Putin has done a Sarkozy (or even outdone Sarkozy’s middle age crisis) by allegedly finding a 24 year old bride:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/people,874,putins-new-gymnast-fiancee-turns-heads,25259
Perhaps he should have tried it on with Ukrain’s glamorous Yulia Timoshenko (with quickie divorces arranged on both sides) and created a grand alliance along the lines of the Ferdinand-Isabel marriage that created the Spanish Empire. Admittedly, Ms. Timoshenko probably lacks the “extreme natural flexibility” attributed to Mr. Putin’s gymnast girlfriend.
Best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 17th, 2008 at 10:57 am | Report this commentCassandra:
Posted by: KostKirnas, Ukraine | April 17th, 2008 at 11:07 am | Report this commentUkraine’s citizens who wish Russian to be a second official make up 30,3% now, down from 35,3% in December 2006.
Out of them, over 70% say they do not feel any inconvinience or restriction in Russian language use.
This is from a research published yesterday.
Unfortunately I do not have English version of this news, but two very renown Ukrainian sources http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/435888 and http://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/medvedev/4806c6013567f
That is type of a question for which majority voting is not the only right answer. In 1917 poor majority in Russia voted to take all property from the rich. These days majority of citizens in Moscow or any other big city would probably vote to cancel jobs for immigrants.
That does not seem to be the right solution, especially in the case of Russians and Ukranians that are artificially put in tensions by current leaders. 30% is a large electoral base and in a purely democratic society all parties would wish to win their votes.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 17th, 2008 at 11:42 am | Report this commentRight, Pacifist. And then we will give out in marriage even more glamorous German Chancellor to American president and universal peace is guaranteed for all. What a bright idea.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 17th, 2008 at 12:10 pm | Report this commentLooks like she is much more flexible internaly than Timoshenko so we stand a good chance.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 17th, 2008 at 12:40 pm | Report this commentAnother very flexible internally German statesman has being on Russian payroll for quite a while. How about you Pacifist? Do you give out your ideas for free?
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 17th, 2008 at 12:51 pm | Report this commentTo V Ivanchenko:
French Canadians constitute less than 20% of Canada. Yet Canada has two official lanquages. In the province of Quebec most signs are in french. There is no way you can get a job in the Governrment of Canada without being fully bilinqual.
Cultural rights do not go by the numbers you quote. If Ukraine wants to be fully democratic it must encourage bilingualism.
In any case suppression of Russian cultural rights is a very fast way of
breaking up Ukraine.
I do not understand the term Neo-Tsarist culture. Do you propose to call
Posted by: Cassandra | April 17th, 2008 at 8:12 pm | Report this commentTolstoi, Dostoyevski, Pouskin. Akhhatova etc something alien to the Ukrainian cultural Universe?
To Ivanenko:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4043315.stm#map
The electoral voting map from the BBC (2004) shows you the cleavage in the Ukraine.
Posted by: Cassandra | April 17th, 2008 at 9:50 pm | Report this commentDraw your own conclusions.
to V Ivanchenko
“sadistic ocupation”??!!
Posted by: Andrey, Moscow | April 18th, 2008 at 7:10 am | Report this commentIt’s funny. You caught flu of nationalism, Vadim. And it is clear now why Russians in south east Ukrain wann’t to live in your nationalistic quasi-state like former “sadistic ocupants”. So, rush to rich uncle Sam, he’ll give you big pot of gold to pay us for gas. But without our lands pl.
to all
A lot of ukrainians and belarusians were Russian leaders. For example, Nikita Khrushchev, Mihail Rodzyanko - Russian Parliament Chairman and so on.
Posted by: Andrey, Moscow | April 18th, 2008 at 7:27 am | Report this commentBy tsarist culture I meant the latent need of so many Russians to be ruled by someone’s strong hand and not by one’s brain. I guess “Tsarist Culture” is a wrong term for it. It does not matter to which nation belonged this or that Russian leader. It was Russian way of thinking that made Stalin and the likes of him possible. Things that would be repulsed with disgust by other nations were accepted “as is” by so many Russians. Chechnya is the latest example. Butcher’s methods employed by the former spy in this republic enjoy wide support among Russian people. Actually his policy in Chechnya made him president. This was an eye opener for me. By the way, the butchery is still going on. Nobody cares. What hypocrisy! Russian language in Ukraine is a much more viable subject.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 18th, 2008 at 10:21 pm | Report this commentAs I mentioned before I do not think that people in any part of Ukraine will take up arms and break away. The cleavage of which you are speaking Cassandra in reality is artificial. The eastern part represents the part of Ukraine where Russian propaganda can reach. My personal conviction is that people in Eastern Ukraine should decide for themselves in which country they want to live. It’s their land, they live there, I don’t. Kiev should let them go should they decide to break away. Just like Czechoslovakia did. I’d rather live in a small and free country then be a small part of huge despotism.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 18th, 2008 at 11:12 pm | Report this commentThe separation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and its logical integration in the Russian Federation will be good for Ukraine as it will not have to look anymore about a Russian Fleet inside Ukraine or about a Russian speaking population or about millions of people who feel closer to the neighbor Russian Federation…
Probably other Eastern oblasts like Donetsk would be better off joining the Russian Federation so the rest of Ukraine can live more comfortable finding its soul and its culture. If they keep so many millions of Russian-speakers inside their territory Ukraine will never join the West and, it is logical, as the present Ukraine is just half-Western and half-Eastern, so until that cultural and ethnic division is broken Ukraine will not find a place in the West, neither in NATO nor in the European Union.
Without the Crimean Peninsula and without Donetsk, Ukraine would be another E.U. member state similar to Poland with about 30 million people 90% Ukrainian speakers and with an important Catholic community….
So Ukraine has to decide if they want to be part of the West (and that means leaving the Crimean Peninsula and the Eastern oblasts like Donetsk)…or if they prefer to be part of the East, with a permanent dependence from the Russian Federation.
The best for the West and for Ukraine itself is getting rid of their Eastern “burden” and become a Western nation around Lviv and Kiev.
Posted by: Enrique | April 23rd, 2008 at 9:53 pm | Report this commentTo Enrique - agree.
Posted by: Vadim Ivanchenko | April 24th, 2008 at 9:23 am | Report this commentGideon,
I thought Edward Lucas had the best of the debate this morning on the Today programme. Your final point though, about Russia not having a grand strategy to take out the West (apologies for paraphrasing) is entirely pertinent, but lacking in one small detail. If indeed Russia does not have a grand strategy, does that mean that we should put ourselves at her mercy - at least regarding supplies of fuel - is she decides that that is what her strategy is at some point in the future? The west should not squander the fruits of its hard earned victory in the cold war.
All the best
AYC
Posted by: AYC | May 9th, 2008 at 9:23 am | Report this comment