April 21, 2008
Droning on about Georgia
Tensions between Russia and Georgia seem to have ratcheted up a couple of notches, with the story that the Russians have shot down a Georgian drone.
The Georgians are already very anxious about what they regard as further steps in Russia’s “creeping annexation” of the Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. On April 16th, the Russians announced that they are opening “representations” in the two territories, to deal directly with Russian citizens there. David Smith of the Georgian Security Analysis centre in Tbilisi argues that - “This is big—tantamount to Russian annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.”
But - as Smith makes clear - the Georgians are pleased with what they regard as a firm western response. The secretary-general of Nato, Condi Rice, John McCain and Hillary Clinton have all spoken out in support of Georgia.
The whole argument highlights the debate about how to handle an angry and resurgent Russia. The “anti-appeasement” crowd will argue that Russia has been encouraged by the refusal to grant Georgia a membership action plan at the Nato summit - and that current developments are an example of Russia testing western resolve. The “understand Russia” crowd will argue that the Kremlin is responding to western provocation over Kosovo - as well as Ukraine and Georgia.
And what do you think?
And what do I think? I think: the Germans and the French wanted “peace in our time”. Now they are getting it. Pretty simple, pretty obvious.
Posted by: RCS | April 21st, 2008 at 9:41 pm | Report this commentand what do I think? Russia wants WTO membership , a great and successful 2014 Olympics and needs desperately foreign investment…they are not going to do anything stupid..because they are not stupid …I am not so sure the same can be said about Georgia’s President…
Meanwhile, “Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze, a leader of the 2003 Rose Revolution, shocked Georgia’s political world with an April 21 announcement that she will not run for reelection in the upcoming May legislative elections. Burjanadze’s apparent exit from the political stage comes amid heightened public distrust in the election process.”
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 21st, 2008 at 10:01 pm | Report this commentI see no difference with Yugoslavia, except for the reason in Yugoslavia the U.S. supported the separatists while in Georgia it supports the unionists against those who want to secede…that´s the contradiction of U.S. foreign policy.
Posted by: Enrique | April 21st, 2008 at 10:05 pm | Report this commentHere are some more pieces for this puzzle which Mr Smith ought to put in his pipe. (allow me mixed metaphors)
(1) Neither Bulgaria nor Romania have recognized Kossovo. Romania’s western 1/3 is Hungarian. Recognizing Kossovo means giving arguments for seccession to these fellows.
(2) Greece has not allowed FYROM (Macedonia) into Nato because it wants to force the Macedonians into a self definition that limits its Borders.
(There are maps in Macedonia which show parts of Greece as belonging to FYROM.
(2) The northern part of FYROM is inhabited by Albanians who left the government when FYROM did not recognize
Kossovo. These fellows’ allegience is to greater Albania.
(3) Several western analysts (including Kupchan) are now stating that the Kossovo story was badly handled and the Mitrovica Serbians will
most likely secede out of the Pristina crowd and join Serbia.
(3) Only 30 countries have recognized
Kossovo out of 200 or so in the UN.
(4) At this point the Russians are not worried about whether they get into the WTO.
(5) Carl Bildt is of no consequence.
(6) There is no de jure recognition of
either Abhazia or So Ossetia. Formally
nothing has really happened.
My conclusion: This story will go nowhere.
Posted by: Cassandra | April 21st, 2008 at 10:08 pm | Report this commentTo RCS : Israel is offering to give to
Abbas 58% of the West Bank and compensate with an equal piece in the Negev. I call this the Sudeten Grab.(You mentioned the Chamberlin story).
To Lisa-Helene: Russia gains one billion dollars every business day from the sale of resources. They have no need for external finance. The only
Posted by: Cassandra | April 21st, 2008 at 10:22 pm | Report this commentpeople of interest to them are the Germans and countries in Europe that can help them rebuild their industrial infrastructure.
Cassandra: “There are maps in Macedonia which show parts of Greece as belonging to FYROM.”
Quite accurate, these maps, as Greece seized ethnically Macedonian territory in 1913 (if I am not mistaken about the year), and then repopulated these lands with Christians from Anatolia, whom it termed ‘Greeks’.
Posted by: RCS | April 21st, 2008 at 10:24 pm | Report this commentTo RCS; What language did these Chisrians speak?
Kindly elaborate and provide sources.
Posted by: Cassandra | April 21st, 2008 at 10:56 pm | Report this commentCassandra,
Does language=nationality?
Source: EJ Hobsbawm: Nations and Nationalism since 1780: Programme, Myth, Reality
You can purchase it here:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Nations-Nationalism-since-1780-Programme/dp/0521439612/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1208815548&sr=8-1
Posted by: RCS | April 21st, 2008 at 11:06 pm | Report this commentCassandra,
because Russia makes it almost impossible for outsiders to invest in… does not mean it does not need foreign investment!….there is not a country on earth that can afford to thumb its nose at foreign investment…not EVEN the big beautiful mysterious complex moody snooty hooty fruity tooty Russia!
Setting Kosovo as precedent was a mistake…Russia had a point (this was all discussed at length in at least 2 other GR posts) and the countries not recognizing Kosovo have good reason not to…including Israel, which fears a successionist movement from Galilee Arab (Isareli) citizens…
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 21st, 2008 at 11:13 pm | Report this commentI think this is one of the games with zero sum and zero output. Directly linked to Kosovo and Georgia’s MAP application.
Russia’s main interest in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is that these two regions should be stable and free from fierce conflicts. Otherwise they would pose a threat to 2014 Sochi Olympics and show a wrong example for nationalities living in the Russian Caucasus.
Georgia basically wants its lands back and wants restore national pride that was considerably tortured during past conflicts with Abkhazians/Ossetians. And a personal wish from Saakashvili is to demonstrate present and future US administration that he is the best friend of America in Eastern Europe.
Now put these things together.
Putin knows that Georgia will not be allowed to join NATO as long at it is engaged in local conflicts.
Saakashvili knows that Russia will not allow a national conflict near its southern border because it would hurt Russian South and deteriorate political position on Kosovo.
The conclusion is.. they are both actually bluffing. The only chance to win all the prize is to demonstrate the opponent as aggressor.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 22nd, 2008 at 8:37 am | Report this commentI would like to know where the Georgians got a drone aircraft and also why they are spying on their massive neighbor to the north. ANother question is why the Azeris would stop a russian convoy of machinery for bushehr at their Iranian border and not at their russian border, ie, the point of entry?…
not sure who is in the best position to answer these questions, the puppets or the puppetmaster
Posted by: Reza | April 22nd, 2008 at 9:21 am | Report this commentRCS,
I haven’t read this particular book by
EH. (In general i like his work). However his student, M Mazower. with roots in the Sephardic Salonica has written a small useful book:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Balkans-Universal-History-Mark-Mazower/dp/1842125443/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1208853274&sr=1-3
which you can get from the same place.
So, in summary you got things a bit mixed up: The population movement happend in 1922 when Greeks and Turks exchanged populations and Macedonia had
one million Greeks sent from Asia Minor.
In 1912 you had the first Balkan War.
Lisa-Helene: I’m here in Athens and things are a bit hectic. I will try to
Posted by: Cassandra | April 22nd, 2008 at 9:52 am | Report this commenttell you more about this issue to-night.
Western propaganda would have us believe that countries like Georgia and Azerbaijan achieve “independence” only by granting military and spying bases to America (in the guise of NATO etc.) to spy on their bigger neighbours like Russia and Iran and hold a dagger to their throats.
Conversely, if such countries try to live in amity with their neighbours, they are accused of being subservient to them and not truly independent.
In short, becoming a military base for American aggression against others is nirvana and being at peace with immediate neighbours is somehow shameful.
Posted by: Pacifist | April 22nd, 2008 at 12:02 pm | Report this commentEnrique:
The difference between Kosovo and Abkhazia is that in Abkhazia the MAJORITY of population was Georgian and not Abkhazian before ethnic cleansing in 1980s by Abkhazians with the help of Russians.
Can you imagine these figures (from Wikipedia):
1989 Census
Georgians: 239,872
Abkhazians: 93,267
Total Population: 525,061
2003 Census
Georgians: 45,953
Abkhazians: 94,606
Total Population in 2006: 177,000 (Encyclopædia Britannica)
Over 200,000 Georgians remain displaced in Georgia proper
www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=4377
So the victims in Abkhazia are Georgians and not Abkhazians as it was with Kosovars in Kosovo.
Acceptance of Abkhazia’s independence would be encouraging ethnic cleansing.
Posted by: Kost Kirnas, Ukraine | April 22nd, 2008 at 12:04 pm | Report this commentDo you know from what the conflict begin? In 1991 David Gamsahurdia declare independence of Georgia and at the same time delete autonomy (?!) of Abkhazia. Abkhazians do not agree. In 1992 the second President Shevarnadze send in Abkhazia troops. It was civil war between Abkhazians and Georgians. In 1993 Georgia loose the war and sign stop-fire Moscow treaty. Since then Russian peacemaker troops stay between Abkhazians and Georgians under mandate of UN (!) and Moscow treaty. So it is conflict between Abkhazians and Georgians and Russian peacemaker troops only separate them.
Now Georgians want to solve the problem by force method (see statistic of their war expenditures) under umbrella of NATO. So they hope to join NATO and move away Russian peacemakers. Georgians don’t talk with Abkhazians, they think to love the USA, blame Russia and prepare to war enough.
So the main reasons of current situation are:
1.There ethnic conflict between Abkhazians and Georgians provoked by nationalistic government of Georgia in 1991.
2.Georgia don’t talk with Abkhazians and wants to solve the problem by force, but Russia peacemakers don’t allow it.
3.Georgia wants to use NATO to give back Abkhazia.
IMHO
Posted by: Andrey, Moscow | April 22nd, 2008 at 12:13 pm | Report this commentDear Cassandra,
A nice book by Mazower, I read it a few years ago.
True, I am not well versed in the region’s history (or any localised history for that matter; I much prefer the ‘big picture’) but I don’t think I misrepresented: in 1912 or 1913 (the first Balkan war) the Greek nationalists seized southern Macedonia, which had an ethnically Macedonian population of predominantly Slavic origin. Then in 1922 one million ‘Greeks’ from Asia Minor were settled in the region. In what way were these people Greek? Their faith was Orthodox Christianity and their liturgical language Greek. But otherwise they were of the same autochtonous Anatolian population as their ‘Turkic’ neighbours, whom had conveniently converted to Islam in the previous centuries. Here is another example: what difference is there between Serb and Muslim Bosnians? Are they different ‘nations’?
In sum: another intriguing example of how 19th century nationalism invented nations, and then built them top-down.
Posted by: RCS | April 22nd, 2008 at 12:15 pm | Report this commentPacifist:
I assume you are pretty far from countries you discuss. Probable you do not know much about those countries that are friendly to Russia.
From closer distance I can say that being a friend to Russia comes at a price: it costs those countries whether independence or money and democracy. Recently Serbia sold some energy asset to Russia for two low price - it’s a good example of cost you pay for being a friend to Russia.
Another friend to Russia, Armenia sold its railway and some other assets to Russians.
Also peoples of the nations-friends-to-Russia face human rights abuses by their governments which are confident of support by Russia against any ‘revolution’ by people.
At the same time Poland can ask quite significant compensation from US for its military base - too much significant - so that there are rumours the US was talking to Czechs to move the base from Poland to Czech Republic.
Posted by: Kost Kirnas, Ukraine | April 22nd, 2008 at 12:18 pm | Report this commentAndrey:
I can agree that Georgian government at the time was stupid (and the current one is stupid as every government in the world in the eyes of its citizens, aside from Russian one I guess).
But it is not important now who started the conflict.
The figures speak for themselves: there was ethnic cleansing (which is crime against humanity) PERFORMED BY ABKHAZIANS.
This must be remedied asap.
Posted by: Kost Kirnas, Ukraine | April 22nd, 2008 at 12:25 pm | Report this commentRCS:
I doubt that the Greeks from Anatolia were not Greeks since Greece regards their treatment by Turkey in early 1900 as ‘genocide against Greeks’.
At the same time I can tell that Greek Macedonia was really a Slavic homeland before Greeks tried to change that at some point.
Moreover cyrillic alphabet (used by all Orthodox Slavs) was invented by Macedonians/Bulgarians Cyril and Methodius IN THESSALONIKI.
Posted by: Kost Kirnas, Ukraine | April 22nd, 2008 at 12:32 pm | Report this commentDear Kost,
America is only paying attention to Georgia because it can use Georgia as a base against Russia. Do you remember how they dropped Afghanistan and forgot about it after the Russians withdrew?
My point was not a defence of Russian imperialism but pointing out that giving bases to America does not make a nation more democratic or its ambitions more legitimate (e.g. Azerbaijan in the same region and various statelets in the Persian Gulf).
The current Georgian president is too close to the US and the provocative actions of Georgia against the Russians is not going to be helpful to them.
Finally, Russia is not the only one to loot its near abroad. Look at the the history of American involvement in Latin America.
best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 22nd, 2008 at 12:37 pm | Report this commentto Kost Kirnas
Posted by: Andrey, Moscow | April 22nd, 2008 at 12:42 pm | Report this commentIt seems you are for indep of Kosovo.
It’s great! The next will be Crimea and so on ))))))!
Andrey:
I am against independence of Kosovo.
Your and many other Russians’ “territorial demands” to Ukraine and other countries are 1800′ manner of politics which led to two world wars.
Mature civilised countries do not pursue such politics. Does Germany talk about Kaliningrad to Russia or some other territory to Poland?
Pursuing such politics shows that the country who does it, is not civilised or mature, but instead backward, living in 1800’s.
Posted by: Kost Kirnas, Ukraine | April 22nd, 2008 at 1:07 pm | Report this comment1. I enjoy how you open west eyes on terrible Russians :). In secret, we have 6 fingers and tail )). But in my experience West people have no difference between Ukr and Rus , our history, language and culture )).
Posted by: Andrey, Moscow | April 22nd, 2008 at 1:46 pm | Report this comment2. Since the USA bombed Serbia and captured Kosovo, there are more than 200,000 refugees from. Do you hear something about their return? And who is to blame for it?
3. The history has always matter. Stupid nationalist Gamsahurdia deleted autonomy of Abkhazia. There was civil war and winners moved away losers. It’s terrible but does it means that Georgia should open new war with help of USA bombs? I think no, they should start to talk instead.
I repeat I am against independent Kosovo.
I think there should not be any new war in Abkhazia, but talks.
Posted by: Kost Kirnas, Ukraine | April 22nd, 2008 at 1:58 pm | Report this commentBut Abkhazia says they do not want any talks, but independence, and Russia seems to help them.
to Kost Kirnas
1.About Kosovo. I understand, you - against indep.
2.About Crimea. The problem is that nationalists in Ukr mainly from right side Dnieper restrict Rus language and want to join potentially non-friendly us military block. In other case there is no matter where Crimea and so on are.
2. “but talks”. Look at figures of Georgia military budget and see what Georgians want.
TY for discussion )).
Posted by: Andrey, Moscow | April 22nd, 2008 at 2:11 pm | Report this comment2. In Crimea there is only one (and the second was to open recently) Ukrainian language school whereas 28% of Crimean population are Ukrainians. The rest are Russian language.
So what restriction of Russian language use are you talking about?
There is a right for Ukrainians to have Ukr.-lan. schools, Ukr.-lan. broadcasting etc., which was not in place for so long.
So we are talking about rights of Ukrainians for their language.
By the way is there ONE Ukrainian Language school in Russia having around 3 mln Ukrainians at least?
Posted by: Kost Kirnas, Ukraine | April 22nd, 2008 at 2:48 pm | Report this commentTo Lisa-Helene:
Here in outline is what the Putin admin. inherited from Yeltsin:
(a) An economy run by kleptocrats who sent the profits of the russian economy to western banks. (Estimated flight of Capital: 300Bn to 1trn$) (Gorbachov’s numbers). There was also the problem that the oligarchs knew how to steal from the balance sheet but
knew little about how to run an industry.
(2) Underinvestments in consumer services and industries since the soviet times.
So his actions amounted to an attack on these two problems:
(3) He tried to expropriate as many oligarchs as he could and used the funds for the rebuilding of the country.
(4) In the consumer sphere anybody can invest in Russia:
IKEA is there and all the car industries. The Germans and the French
are investing in the Pharmaceutical industry. In non strategic industry you can invest all you want.
I think, given what is happening with the price of foodstufs they will intensify their agricultural investmnets.
It is true that they have the funds to do what they want. They lack the expertise in the consumer sphere. They are bying it by letting others come in at a low tax rate.
To RCS: The Anatolian Greeks, especially those alomg the western part of present day Turkey in 1920, represeted 40% of the Greek people.
Posted by: Cassandra | April 22nd, 2008 at 7:52 pm | Report this comment(2 0ut of 5 million). They were the most dynamic piece of it because the Ottoman Empire let them do most of the trade. Their educational system was European. They were the descendants of the ionian colonization. (from 800BC)
Byzantium was built on a helllenized Asia Minor because of Alexander. When the Turks invaded Asia Minor they neither changed their faith nor their language. The others did. So when these people were uprooted the shock to
the greek state amounted to a catastrophe. Subsequently they were responsible (in Greece) for the modernisation of the greek society.
Cassandra,
Who were the Anatolian Greeks? They were the part of the Byzantine populace that did not convert to Islam. Claiming they descended from the Ionian colonisation of 800BC is not an historically verifiable statement. Generally speaking, no population remains constant over such vast periods of time. The claim that modern-day nations derive from antiquity, that they are an organic entity that has remained constant throughout history, is a central myth of 19th century nationalism. Read Hobsbawm (or better still Ernest Gellner or Benedict Anderson).
Ernest Gellner:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Nations-Nationalism-New-Perspectives-Past/dp/1405134429/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1208892650&sr=8-1
Benedict Anderson:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Imagined-Communities-Reflections-Origin-Nationalism/dp/1844670864/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1208892712&sr=1-1
Posted by: RCS | April 22nd, 2008 at 8:33 pm | Report this commentCassandra,
yes …thank you for coming back after your hectic day/night! We are in agreement! ….with some minor nuances…there is a little issue of “rule of law” that needs to be addressed to make needed foreign investment grow…which it should, as it would be good for everyone… But I am not worried, I think Putin, who has been very good for Russia, will address this issue as PM…
I also agree with you that this story is a bit of a non-story…as I drank my morning latte in may favorite cafe and perused my print edition of FT, not one article about this incident…there was an amusing article about Russians attending a business conference in London had suggested that the US chaotic democratic process is no help to the global economy! (he may have a bit of point there!) This FT article on Russians promoting investment in Russia and another on the Russian ballet…well that was it! No EU/US stressing about “Russian aggression” etc…
I assume Georgia will get some free trade agreement with US shortly to calm them down and Russia will provide more Sochi Olympic contracts to Abkhazians and everyone will get busy making money…as they should!… I can’t wait for the Sochi Olympics! It will be great for the entire region…
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 22nd, 2008 at 8:54 pm | Report this commentI appreciate the good and mostly knowledgeable commentators and discussions by everyone.
I would like to add a few notes to the discussion:
I think both sides (Georgia and Russia) are playing some game here. First I was surprised to learn that a country as poor as Georgia where people live off less than $50 a month can even afford to buy drones???!!! Secondly, I wonder how they can think they can fly drones drones around close to Russia without and expect Russia to just sit back. I think it is a deliberate provocation knowing of course that Russia would respond so they can go crying to the UN and the West like babies. It is also obvious that Mikheil Saakashvili will do anything to try divert attention from the political and economic mess he is doing at home - and this is one way to do so.
The fact is: it appears the Abkazia and South Ossetia’s drive to independence is IRREVERSIBLE. That is what Georgia has to face - just as Serbia has to face the fact that Kosovo is gone for good. Neither Geargia’s entry into NATO nor anything else will bring these two regions back under Tiblisi’s control.
Ukraine should also watch what it does because Crimea may follow suit - thanks to Tymochenko’s continued intent to provoke Russia.
Whether we like it or not Russia is back and flash with lots of money and resources in a world desperate for the resources it abundantly has.
Posted by: Julius | April 22nd, 2008 at 9:48 pm | Report this commentAnyways, I think that multiple love messages from US politicians to Georgian president are kind of inappropriate in this case.
Things changed and it’s no longer wise to pretend that Georgia is an etalon of democracy. It happens so that revolutionary leaders are excited to gain power by democratic process. No matter who we are talking avout (Saakashvili, Timoshenko, and Putin as well). But they especially hate the second part: to step power up.
I mean that the world record of being immune to facts will always belong to Soviet “Pravda” newspaper. No doubt. But once you read some today’s headings (I will not mention the newspaper, it’s very popular in US) you’re trying to figure out what century are you living in: “Aggression in Georgia: Vladimir Putin steps up his campaign against Russia’s democratic neighbor - and bets that NATO won’t respond”.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 23rd, 2008 at 4:11 am | Report this commentIf a U.S. Carrier Group were to be based at Constanza or Bourgos or perhaps even in the Crimea……. it wld deny Russia access to the Med’. Georgia too has a Black Sea port (Batumi)which was/is used for evacuaton of Caspian oil.
The economic significnace of a U.S. based Carrier Group in the Black Sea would be enormous. Take a look at the U.S. 6th Fleet’s base in the Phillipines. The economy wld literally collapse over night if it pulled out. Hotels, bars, clubs, infrastructure, heavy/light industry, investment, telecommunications, tourism, etc, etc, all wld grow around and support a massive US Naval presence like that. A virtual circle of economic benefit would link every Black Sea bordering xtry. All without a shot being fired.
So here’s some qu’s: why has and is/ Russia building underwater oi/gas pipelines to Turkey/E.Europe and not around the land circumference of Black Sea? Why has Russia recently talked specifically about taking back the Crimea? Why did Bulgaria and Romania get fast track NATO membership? Why don’t the latter two support Kososvo?
In the early 1980’s my father managed the building of the first bridge across the Boshporus. Twice it had to be heightened because of the superstructures of the Naval ships; once at the request of the USSR so it’s Fleet based in the Crimea cld get out of the Black Sea - to the Med; and later a further increase in height was requested by the U.S. Navy (with its taller supestructures) because as it gently reminded my father , at some stage “we may need to get into the Black Sea”. Note also the RF Navy now deploying in the Med…..
Georgia is a minor player in all of this, although I do think the vast majority of other commentary in the blog here is relevant and true. But, the US objective to my mind is Ukraine and with a friendly Georgia on one side and with NATO allies, Romania and Bulgaria on the other now accommodating NATO bases transferred from Cold War bases in Germany you can see the way its going. The Russian Med’ Navy presence, shooting down Georgian drones, building Southstream pipeline, hints perhaps of taking back the Crimea, are all strategic “signals” to the USA that they know full well what the US plan is for containing Russia in a new economic-driven Cold War.
Posted by: tim | April 23rd, 2008 at 9:41 am | Report this commentLisa-Helene: As you know the Mafia needs good bean -counters as well as crooked judges and consiglieri. All this existed in Russia before Putin and a lot of it still exists. It has to be fixed. A demoralized public service (low pay,low esteem) leads to this kind of situation. Furthermore in all countries in the world bribes grease a lot of hands and produce nice
outcomes for the bribe giver. The nature of these corrupters varies.
It could be an average Joe paying a traffic cop or a lobbyist in Washington
DC providing an expensive hooker to a law giver. You know all this.
RCS,
In my scheme of things today’s italians are descendants of the Romans.
Not genetic descendants but cultural descendants. Ditto for the Greeks.
Any 13yo in Italy can read Dante. (A 12c text) and any 13yo Greek can read and understand the “Dhigenis Akritas” epic written in the 11th-12th c.
I can read the bible in the original which is even older (Hellenistic).
Whenever i want to amuse myself i read the apocalypse a text written by sombody stoned out of his gourd. (I consider all religion an assembly of dangerous fables)
Any given set of people at time T sharing a culture and doing x, y etc in a common space can develop at a time T’ later a slightly different culture and language even with the natural addition of other people.
Posted by: Cassandra | April 23rd, 2008 at 10:00 am | Report this commentIf the latter begin to live the culture
they are members of the set. Genetics is not important, Culture is.
The notion of the Nation state is another srory. It is much more recent.
nato = north atlantic terrorist organization!
Posted by: moscow | April 23rd, 2008 at 1:49 pm | Report this commentOn the Drone: THE PLOT THICKENS!
The Drone:
“The Haaretz newspaper said citing an unnamed source in Israel’s security structures that Israel has confirmed the downed drone had been produced by the Israeli company Elbit Systems.”
Well, the plot thickens!
Cassandra:All this existed in Russia before Putin and a lot of it still exists….You know all this”
Yes, aside from enjoying your posts very much…you and I are on the same page…except on religion…I like religion…not always what is done with it, or in the name of it…but I dig God and his mysteries…but then I am a bit of a romantic…which is probably why I have a soft spot for Russia!
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 23rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm | Report this commentL-H L,
Do you think the Russians should make the same kind of fuss about Israeli weapons that the Americans make about Iranian weapons?
Best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 23rd, 2008 at 5:11 pm | Report this commentCassandra, “I can read the bible in the original which is even older (Hellenistic).” News to me. I always thought the original was in Hebrew. And later in history, the Hellenist invaders, if you recall, were defeated by the Maccabees and forced out of Israel.
Lisa, “Well, the plot thickens!” come again? What does it matter where the Georgians get their drone from? It’s not as if it’s an offensive weapon is it?
And forgive me for raising this if it’s uncomfortable, but I understand there is a team of Syrians training in Russia at the moment on the new, new anti-aircraft system they’ve just bought, which was meant to protect their plutonium bomb assembly plant.
Whatever the Russians get back they are owed in spades. Never mind the “romance” - think the tens of millions of victims of the formerly totalitarian state, up to and including the Chechens, add to the romance?
Posted by: AYC | April 23rd, 2008 at 5:42 pm | Report this commentAYC,
I believe Cassandra was referring to the Book of Revelations in the New Testament, which was written in Greek (why not read it this Passover?
)
Posted by: RCS | April 23rd, 2008 at 5:54 pm | Report this commentDear AYC,
You defend the Georgian drone by saying “It’s not as if it’s an offensive weapon is it?” then you go on to condemn the Syrians for buying their new anti-aircraft system (i.e. an air defence system) and condemn the Russians for selling it to them.
A touch of hypocrisy, perchance?
Best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | April 23rd, 2008 at 6:06 pm | Report this commentI can’t read Revelation in the original Greek, but I must add that the excellent Hebrew (Delitsch) edition is much more magnificent than the English King James version.
Delitsch touched on magic.
Posted by: RCS | April 23rd, 2008 at 6:15 pm | Report this commentAYC:”Lisa, “Well, the plot thickens!” come again? What does it matter where the Georgians get their drone from? It’s not as if it’s an offensive weapon is it? ”
Here is how it matters…taxpayer dollars from the US are used in Foreign Aid ….I believe US should be distributing more Foriegn Aid not less but I want transparency…because I expect foreign aid to go into a country for the purpose of upgrading the economy, which in turn should contribute to upgrading and strengthening education, healthcare , nutrition of the citizens of the country…instead we most likely have US taxpayer dollars helping to buy in this case “defensive weapons”… and this little “defensive weapon” as you call it, has tied up the UN today in discussions and whatever….when he UN’s time could be better spent discussing the latest dismal statistics in the Millenium Development Goals Report and why we (i.e., the world) are so behind in meeting those very important goals!
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 23rd, 2008 at 6:25 pm | Report this commentP “Do you think the Russians should make the same kind of fuss about Israeli weapons that the Americans make about Iranian weapons? ”
Unlike you P, I am not a pacifist…just passionate!…and passion does not work in tandem with being a pacifist! Moreover, I believe in the concept of a “just War” (St Augustine, a Berber, got that right)…Countries need weapons and let’s face it certain countries run their economies with arms deals…but I want transparency in the process…and IF US foreign Aid is being sold to the American people that it is going into building “democratic institions” in Eastern Europe or elsewhere and instead is going to purchase weapons from our “friends”…well that needs to be clear…perhaps foreign policy has always been conducted in a “I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine” …but its distasteful way of operating in the world…and it will not work with this century’s problems…it simply won’t work
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 23rd, 2008 at 6:45 pm | Report this commentAYC:”Whatever the Russians get back they are owed in spades. Never mind the “romance” - think the tens of millions of victims of the formerly totalitarian state, up to and including the Chechens, add to the romance?”
This is really twisted thinking. The current generation should pay for the sins of the fathers?!…have you never read a Russian novel?, never listened to Russian composers of classical music, if I could own any painting in the world it would be Kuzma Petrov-Vodkin, The Red Horse Bathing…I dont know where you are from but in general, what you said is pretty disturbing…
Moreover,I am American …what do you suggest should be payback we are “owed in spades” for slavery, for invading Iraq, for dropping a nuclear bomb on Japan…
Further, both Russians and Chectchens committed human rights violations…but lets be clear, if militant terrorists took hold there …they would be exporting terrorism all over Europe.
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 23rd, 2008 at 7:11 pm | Report this commentWell first of all I think everyone should understand:
1) Georgia was NOT provoking anything, it’s air drone was patrolling INTERNAL GEORGIAN air space(And was NOWHERE NEAR Russian border as some have claimed!)
Gali region where the Russian Mig29 has shot down the Drone is pretty FAR from what I would call “Russia”… or “close to Russia”…
2) The Drone was property of interior ministry and not military.
3) Drone was used to monitor the build up of Russian forces on the separatist side.
4) Why the hell should we ask Putin should or should we not be able to fly in our own air space?? (Which again is not on border with Russians or something…)
//
Now about Kosovo:
Very simple!
In Kosovo Serbs murdered Albanians, Albanians get independence.
In Abkhazia, Majority of population(Georgians) get murdered by Russians/Chechen’s and other North Caucasian mercenaries including regular Russian army.
Casualties of war:
Abkhaz ~3000
Russian/Chechen/Other ~ ????
Georgian ~ 25.000 murdered 350.000 refugees.
=
If there is any fairness in this world, then separatists get NOTHING!
//
No MAP in NATO:
Germany and France here, where ONLY motivated by oil contracts with Russia… Money is everything in this world… it’s a bad world!
Georgia feels like Poland after WWII…
Posted by: Alexander | April 23rd, 2008 at 8:06 pm | Report this commentut of the app 570,000 pre-war population of Abkhazia, this paradise region, up to 500,000 including Georgians (around 300,000) Russians, Ukrainians, Greeks, Estonians and even Abkhaz themselves (yes, many Abkhaz do live in Tbilisi and Batumi) were driven out of their homes. In Kosovo, (allegedly at least) west prevented ethnic cleansing while in Abkhazia this very cleansing was carried out with direct Russian involvement and any recognition of this would be legitimation of Europe’s most forgotten ethnic cleansing. It is 2008, not 1808. It is simply insane to cleanse majority on ethnic basis by minority and then claim self-determination…
But more importantly it is not even about Abkhazia, loss of Georgia will be disaster to the west.It is good to see that people in the west are finally grasping intricacies of this complicated conflict. But the implications of this are far more great that policy-makers in the west possibly imagine (stubbornnes of politicians in Germany to be blind is sometimes triking though). This is about preventing Georgia from emerging into a consolidated and successful democracy. With the danger of full-scale war hanging over head how can the Georgian democracy consolidate? Even critics of Mr Saakashvili regognise that this situation is only dragging political stability issues in Georgia. For example, most of the opposition does not hesitate to exploit Georgia’s failure to get MAP in most unethical way. In short, leaving aside sarcasm of viewing democratic success as threat aside, most likely messup in Georgia will have dire consequences for Europe in several ways: first, the “bottleneck” of all alternative energy supply projects to Europe will be locked and Russia will gain unbreakable monopoly, second Russia will embolden like never and create unheard trouble in Baltics and all over Europe. It is already buying politicians in Germany. Second, prospects for democracy in the wider region will be buried for very long (Russians will pint out: look what games with western values got Georgia to); and finally this will be biggest failure of Europe and NATO since the WWII.
Everyone knew Russia would be emboldened after Bucharest. Everyone. But they blocked MAP anyway. It seems Europe only learns harder way but why we have to get our state ruined all the time???
but even after this incontrovertible evidence or direct Russian aggression, there is not a single condemnation from not a single western head of state. I sometimes wonder if Russians bomb Tbilisi be enough. I suppose again they will say “we urge Georgia to exercise restraint” I already have allergy for this wording.
Posted by: Grishinski | April 23rd, 2008 at 8:29 pm | Report this commentLisa, “…when he UN’s time could be better spent…” Russia plays the UN like a fiddle. As Alexander points out, the drone was in Georgian territory. Nothing to do with Russia. And in case you missed it (which wouldn’t surprise me), Russia lost the cold war. They should live with the consequences.
“This is really twisted thinking. The current generation should pay for the sins of the fathers?!…” In case you missed this as well, the Russians invaded Chechnya in the 1990s. How does that rate as sins of the fathers? Father Yeltsin maybe?
And BTW, Stalin killed 20 million kulaks because he thought they were decadent. If you want to compare the crimes of history, I suggest you do some research. But thanks for the compliment, from you I appreciate it. If you want culture, go for French. Far superior. Why do you think the Russian court all learned French?
Posted by: AYC | April 23rd, 2008 at 8:32 pm | Report this commentAYC,
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | April 23rd, 2008 at 9:12 pm | Report this commentThis little snit between Russia and Georgia will come to nothing dramatic … be my guest!… see Russia as a bogey man of the world!…I enjoy and I am intrigued by “differences” as much as I am by “likeness” in cultures, religions and people….go ahead and see the world thru a lens of cultural superiority vs. inferioity…keep a tab on all the atrocities committed and nod approvingly when future generations are “paid back in spades” …but that worldview is not French… that is just YOU.
To AYC: The current french cultural landscape is not exactly brilliant.
If you read french, (i do), i will cite to you info in french on the french cultural scene)
Let ne know.
Posted by: Cassandra | April 23rd, 2008 at 10:05 pm | Report this commentThe fact, that in 91 there were more Georgians in Abkhazia, than any other ethnic groups and that most of them became refugees, is a crucial fact and it makes clear, how different is the situation in Abkhazia from Kosovo and many other conflicts.
It was not many Georgians vs few Abkhazs, in fact it was big Russia vs little Georgia.
Andrei lies too often:
1) Andrei says, that Gamsakhurdia “deleted” Abkhazian autonomy. That’s his first big lie.
Not only the autonomy was preserved, but Gamsakhurdia also gave ethnic Abkhazians a majority in the autonomy’s parliament, despite they were an ethnic minority. This is a historic fact, anyone can check.
2) Andrei says, that Georgian’s don’t talk with Abkhazians. That’s another big lie.
The talks are carried on constantly and Georgia is making various propositions to Abkhazians, concerning “wide” autonomy, official language and various other guarantees.
3) Another lie is that the conflict was just between Abkhazians and Georgian. NO! It’s very well documented, that many Russian citizens, including Chechens (but not only) were fighting on the Abkhazian side and Russian weapons were used.
4) Andrei says that Russians are only acting as peacekeepers - one more lie. Russia constantly (and often openly) is making various steps to take Abkhazia away from Georgia. Their actions include giving Russian pasports to Abkhazians, illegally buying property in Abkhazia, supplying weapons etc.
5) NATO membership isn’t needed for military solution of the conflict, rather it’s needed to prevent Russia’s military invasion.
Posted by: Sandro | April 23rd, 2008 at 11:44 pm | Report this commentSandro, I need appologies. There is only one participant on this page spelled “Andrei” and the previous poster refers to someone else.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 24th, 2008 at 4:23 am | Report this commentMy vision (as “Andrei”) on Georgia/Abkhazia conflict is that it basically was a very dirty war with dirty methods and dirty consequences.
And I don’t see reasons to look for excuses niether for Abkhazian separatists, nor for Georgian authorities in 1991. That was a horror for many Abkhazians and Georgians that lived next door to each other and one day found out that they should be enemies. Starting Monday.
That happens when there is a critical mass of “hot heads” on the both sides. For sure you (if you are a Georgian) have a right blame Russians for standing in between and for opening borders on the North. For putting the interest of Krasnodar region security (major Russian resort) above territorial completeness of Georgia. But one thing should be considered for sure. For 15 years people in Georgia and Abkhazia did not have to fight.
Foreign policy is something that “hot heads” are not always good at. I know Americans like to elect tough guys, but that is more of an exception than a rule in transatlantic. This is why I think it’s more reasonable to talk about the future rather than speculate about the past.
There is no precedent of recognizing Abkhazia’s independence and I’m sure that there will no be a one. And I also hope that statements about “bombing Tbilisi” and “feeling like Poland after WW2″ were jokes.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 24th, 2008 at 5:39 am | Report this commentHallo Gedeon! thanks for offer to answer. you said “an angry and resurgent Russia” but on the foto i see another man who wants others to believ in angry and resurgent Russia. Americans are international liers. Help their brains. Americans starts war against internatioanl law. When you say “freedom” or “democracy” it means bombs (maybe nuclear) and destruction and total control for mass-media. We understand your motivation. It is awful because you have no another one. Piece for americans means “make business” and control for resources. And world for americans is one big global macdonalds where amers are managers and chief executives and other nations are the stuff. did you study maths well in school or univer? Kosovo = South Ossetia and Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Abkhazia = Kosovo. Americans support terror in regions that they dont control, but named “american national interest” so they support terror in Kosovo against serbians. and now i ask you if you so clever and have keys for all doors. Who gives americans authority or power to say other nations what they must do and what they cannot? it is one fundamental question since Ruzvelt formed active forreign doctrine and amers started to show ugly values all over the world. But in the country where prezident every day says with the God all is possible.
Posted by: ivan | April 24th, 2008 at 10:04 am | Report this commentI think you nailed it Ivan! At last someone has got it. There was always going to be repercussions for the Kosovo issue as far as Russia was concerned.
Very, very rarely does Russia ever respond to a challenge in a direct way; it always attacks some other aspect of its opponents armoury in response. It just happens to be Georgia this time.
New attacks on BP-TNK have just started in earnest today - a signal to the UK. That;s the way it is going to be from now on. Attack-counter attack.
Posted by: tim | April 24th, 2008 at 1:16 pm | Report this commentIvan, I think there was nothing inappropriate in the words “angry and resurgent” in that particular context.
With respect to today’s column of Qeuntin Peel. I agree to some extent that opening “representative offices” in Abkhazia and South Ossettia was unnecessary provocation. However, the column’s heading (”Russia heats up frozen conflict”) is definitely an exxageration. Someone sent “love” messages to Abkhazians, trained and equipped special forces, purchased drones and even tried to use NATO.. only to suddenly get provoked by representative offices.
That is a “storm in the water glass”. Tactics used by tabloid journalists and hyperactive presidents.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 24th, 2008 at 1:30 pm | Report this commentIvan, Andrei,
What I am interested to know/understand from your point(s) of view as Russians/Slavs is in whose western interests is it - in your opinion(s) to stir this all up? On whose behalf was for example Paitrkitsihvili trying to bribe his way into power in Georgia? Why would a billionaire want to rule Georgia - where as anyone would tell you who lives there - he was universally despised?
It just doesn’t make sense unless Berezovsky asked him to do it(!) or the British encouraged him to do so as a condition for keeping his UK status. He actually confessed to offering a staggering $100M bribe to some Internal Affairs Chief to stir things up amongst the population during the recent elections. As you say Andrei, a very dirty war with dirty methods.
Posted by: tim | April 24th, 2008 at 4:38 pm | Report this commentivan,
Well I urge you to check my previous post.
Sure if “this all” is just between Russia and US and it’s not really about the right or wrong or the truth, but it’s just a dirty political game were small country’s are getting bitten off, just because they are small I understand all of this. BUT do not put the equality sign between Abkhazia and Kosovo. (The very serious reasons I wrote about in the post above, exclude ANY similarities!)
And again, I fail to understand how can you fight a war with Russia’s OWN separatism in Chechnya and whole North Caucasus… how can you do all the stuff you did and are doing there right now and talk about others?
You talk about Abkhaziya? Well it NEVER was independent. Which can NOT be said about Chechnya! You gave it independence yourself and then invaded that country two times! Causing massacres and mass murders of civilians. Granted there where real breed of terrorists in that country. (Who Russia has created and trained itself!) Shamil Basaev, a hero of Abkhaziya and a big brother in arms with Russian FSB(Before the war in Chechnya)
Remember even Russian RTV reporters as many others taking interviews with that “Volunteer Hero” and “Freer of Abkhaziya” So if he was so damn great why did you not let him free his own people from your Russian empire?
Now let me be clear here, I DO NOT support Russian separatism now, nor I ever did. But stuff like this just makes me wonder about any
real arguments of Russian policy…
I mean is it all because of US? The West? Hmm or maybe you simply like our black see resorts that much? (2 million of Russians go there every year for summer…)
I really would like to know… sure I mean punishing Georgia because of US or EU policy is kinda strange to me…(Our capital is not Atlanta and we are not in EU…) but well Russian’s should have hopefully some strange logic at least… Well I mean you are not all just crazy right? (i hope)
what else can I say…
Posted by: Alexander | April 24th, 2008 at 9:23 pm | Report this commentTim, unfortunately I have no idea. Ask Alexander as a Georgian resident.
As I know Mr.Patrikatsihvili was a businessman and his actions should be considered first from the business point of view and second from the political one (if it helps business). The thing that comes out of logic is that Patrikatsihvili intentionally lost significant share of his business during this “Rose revolution: reload”.
My guess (which could be far from reality) is that before elections Mr.Patrikatsihvili was warned by authorities that he is already number one to lose his business in Georgia, including the TV channel. Same things happened to Berezovskiy and Gusinskiy in Russia (both were running primary TV channels before they lost their assets).
What I’m sure about is that even if it happened so that Mr.Patrikatsihvili became a president, Georgia’s NATO shift wouldn’t change. He could have been less offensive to Russia and breakaway republics, but no more than that. “Pro-Russian” idea is just not popular with the Georgians, who will not forgive Russia its position on breakaway republics for a long time.
Alexander,
Things have dramatically changed since 1991 when all these separatist movements took start. Including the political, military and financial resource base for these movements.
Does it have to deal with the US? Partially yes, becase the double presence of neo-cons administration in US and “siloviki” administration in Russia gave a resonance effect. If there was no Nabucco, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan stories, today Russians and Georgians would have much better relations. However, even in that case I doubt that Russia would support any scenario of restoring Georgian borders other than local non-US led “soft revolutions”.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | April 25th, 2008 at 6:10 am | Report this commentThanks Andrei,
All makes sense to me. Interesting though is to whom P’vili sold his TV company….and why.
Secondly it seems that you may agree with me to the extent that I see these recent Georgian issues as more symptomatic of wider regional issues rather than the all consuming fate of Georgia per se. Russians I talk to regret the loss of good relations with Georgia and talk about their great holiday times there - years ago.
I agree also about any final Russian/Georgian border talks. If it were just btn Georgia/RF they cld probably come to an agreement but like all new friends of the USA, they all like to call on big brother when they get in a jam which unfortunately - by definition - always escalates matters.
Posted by: tim | April 25th, 2008 at 9:04 am | Report this commentAndrey:
When you say 200 000 Serbs refugees from Kosovo, you forgot to mention that before that, 700 000 ethnic Albanians were forced out of the province. Not all of them have returned.
Just in in Germany and Switzerland Kosovo Albanians are accounting for some 200,000 individuals each.
Anyway Serbs were in minority before the conflict and remain in minority now in Kosovo.
This contrasts sharply with Abkhazia where Georgians were in majority all the way since 1926 through 1989, but decreased to minority during the conflict.
Posted by: Kost Kirnas, Ukraine | April 25th, 2008 at 2:13 pm | Report this commentWell Andrei, I can agree with most of things in your last post.
And tim, I also partly agree with your post.
All I can add is that Patarkatsishvili, well he’s not a very big deal, from political standpoint. While he was definitely pretty charismatic and had HUGE financial power, still he was not overwhelmingly popular in public in order to become a president. But surely it’s regrettable what has happened to him. He could done a service to his country in other fields then politics.
Also here you write:
“I agree also about any final Russian/Georgian border talks. If it were just btn Georgia/RF they cld probably come to an agreement but like all new friends of the USA, they all like to call on big brother when they get in a jam which unfortunately - by definition - always escalates matters.”
I agree, but only to some extent, firstly the big problem is that Russia is just too damn harsh. It practically makes 10% of our population refugees and has this constant propaganda about our separatist movements in local Russian press. Not to mention a very serious military and financial aid that separatists are getting oh and Russian passports…
So please understand that in such situation it is impossibly difficult to stay calm and try to resolve issues alone. We Georgians feel that Russia sees us(As most of smaller country’s in the world) just too little and weak. So whatever we talk about to Russian politics and whatever we propose simply does not work. Even if we do serious compromises. As for US, well US plays GREATLY in our situation, I don’t see them THAT much interested in our issue anyway as for “new” Russia it’s a very good place to prove it’s power… and make the some small parts of Europe and US worry about that a little. (Yes I think the “siloviki”’s in Russian government enjoy that… at least the absolute majority.)
In this situation we ask US to stand by us and it does sometimes do that. In the past Russia has demonstrated that if US is involved and if US does it’s pressure it may at least have some sort of reaction as opposed to if we alone try to negotiate the Russia simply says “Oh it’s all a lie!” “Our planes where not there!” “That rocket was not ours!” “It’s not us it’s Saakashvili getting ready to war!” “We never give away Russian passports!”
and… stuff like that.
Actually WE WANT GOOD relationship with Russia, I can say that not just GOOD, BUT VERY VERY GOOD.
The only thing here is that we can’t offer you parts of our territory and we can’t have a pro Russian president. We want a pro Georgian. And I can say that by a large margin we do and he is so pro American only because the Russian route is cut of by Russia’s policy and politicians.
While some Russians unjustifiably think that Georgian politicians are “aggressive”, “anti Russian” all I can say is that it is not us who is practically invading and occupying parts of your country, we do not and never supported Russian separatists.(In Pankisi armed Chechen’s were simply crossing our borders from Russia… so what we had to do? Shevardnadze DID NOT HAVE ANY REAL military back then and only US started to train small force for us to have something to fight terrorists that could come from Russian Federations territory.
Russia on it’s side could have done MUCH, but unfortunately it did ONLY aid separatists, while it could help resolve that issue peacefully and aid and train a small military force for Georgia while having a very good relationship with it and having guarantees of no NATO course of Georgia. The small Russian trained force (I’d say 2000 or so people) could have been a force we could repel Russia’s own separatists, if they ever wanted to cross our border from your country.
But instead everything went really different, US started that very logical aid. Russia continued what it was doing before, so here we are now…
Oh and I can also add that we NEVER offend any Russian’s that live and reside here for generations. They are a part of our community and you simply can’t find anything discriminating Russian people as opposed to how Georgians are treated in Russia. As for Putin, we don’t like him not because our media gives him too much attention or it explains us why we should hate him… like Russian media does Saaksahvili… We simply see the policy of Russia(350 000 refugees from Abkhazia 150 000 from S. Ossetia - “Shida Kartli”(in Georgian) ) and we just need to turn on the Russian TV channel or read Russian news site to see who is unfortunately not our friend.
Georgians want/NEED to see and hear something good from Russian’s it has been so long and all we have seen from Russia is bad or very very very bad.
Posted by: Alexander | April 25th, 2008 at 9:29 pm | Report this comment