May 16, 2008
War over Georgia?
Tensions between Russia and Georgia are heightening. In the latest development, the Russians have accused Georgian special forces of aiding anti-Russian insurgents. The Georgians meanwhile are outraged by the build-up of Russian forces in the separatist Georgian province of Abkhazia. They are now talking about a military response. And that would mean a shooting war with Russia - albeit, probably, quite a short one.
Specifically, the Georgians point to the downing of Georgian drones flying over Abkhazia, which is (after all) part of their country. They say that one of their drones was definitely shot down by a Russian Mig. They are threatening to shoot down the next Russian Mig to over-fly Georgian territory. And they say that they have tacitly been given the go-ahead by the Americans to do this.
It may be that the Georgians are just talking tough, in the hope of provoking the international mediation over Abkhazia that they desperately want. I hope so. Because I think that shooting down a Russian plane would be the stupidest thing they could possibly do. It would give Russia exactly the excuse it needed to launch military operations against Georgia.
GR: “Because I think that shooting down a Russian plane would be the stupidest thing they could possibly do.”
I wouldn’t put it past the Bush administration to encourage the Georgians in that stupidity. It seems that they are itching for fresh conflicts in the dying months of their administration with “Après moi le Deluge” as their slogan.
Of course, their more cynical calculation is that conflict and tension around the world will help McCain’s election as McCain is a one-trick pony with warmongering (both of the cold and hot varity) as his speciality.
So…. in the nesxt few weeks and months, be prepared to watch American-inspired conflicts in Georgia, Lebanon and elsewhere and a heating up of the tensions with Iran.
Best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | May 16th, 2008 at 12:56 pm | Report this commentPoland’s,Lithuania’s, Slovenia’s, and Swedensssss’ foreign ministers were all there this week, they may be able to defuse or mediate the issue of who should be making up peace keeping troops…Georgian parliamentary election is on May 21, willt many citizens of Abkhazia will be going to the polls?…It would seem that this tension and the threat of conflict helps strengthen Saakashvili’s party.
It’s going to be a difficult summer, listen to Bush’s speech in the Knesset again…Cheney and Abrams have him all pumped up again…
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | May 16th, 2008 at 2:52 pm | Report this commentP: “American-inspired conflicts in Georgia, Lebanon and elsewhere…” Er, heeelllooo. Ever hear of Hezbollah turning their guns on Lebanese…sure I heard it somewhere…
Seems to me the Russians are the one provoking the Georgians, whether or not the US are “in the background”. Please don’t let conspiracy get in the way of the story.
Posted by: AYC | May 16th, 2008 at 3:43 pm | Report this commentYeah, not much good those Israeli-made drones, are they? Easily shot down…easily.
P
Posted by: Pacifist | May 16th, 2008 at 4:14 pm | Report this comment.
Georgia is one of the most ” active ” locus of the Great Game for oil ,
there is a strong element in the U.S.establishment who will re-establish the cold war at any price , Mc Cain too ,is definitely on board that ship of fools
This .. from a military focus site
” Georgia claims that a Russian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter from the Gudauta military base in Abkhazia shot down the Georgian drone, reportedly an Israeli-made Hermes 450.”
http://www.elbitsystems.com/lobmainpage.asp?id=161
the shape of the undercarriage and the position of the pod seems to fit ..
Posted by: jeannick | May 17th, 2008 at 12:48 am | Report this commentWar over Georgia???? ….Can this even be a subject of debate???
Georgia does NOT have the military, economic,political or any other ‘muscle’ to even contemplate a war with Russia! They are hyping up the rhetoric hoping some stupid military help from NATO which CAN NOT AND WOULD NOT HAPPEN UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE!
Okay let’s forget about the hypotheticals or imaginary wars and talk about the facts:
If Georgia would be stupid enough to start a war with Russia, there are some things we can expect to happen:
1-Georgia would be quickly humiliated in front of NATO - because it would be fighting three armies (Russians, the Abkhaz force, and the South Ossetian army). It can not afford a three pronged attack - particularly involving Russia unless they want Tiblisi to be turned into another bombed out Grozny! And NATO would not dare send a single soldier.
2- The war would in effect help the separatist regions and would cement their independence and eventual unity with Russia - and lead to creation of permanent Russian bases in those regions.
3- The Georgian economy (already in shambles) would go even further to its knees.
4- The war would almost certainly lead to the fall of the Georgian government as pro-war supporters would then realize their own stupidity.
We can go on and on but its not necessarily.
All in all, avoiding the war is in the interest of all parties concerned atleast for the sake of showing their sanity.
As for the EU mediation team, that was not a mediation team - it was just team sent to shore up support for the Georgian leadership - and may be try to point out the above scenarios to him and convince him to spend the money he is spending on ‘wasted drones’ on building roads for his country.
Posted by: Julius | May 17th, 2008 at 5:11 pm | Report this commentTo my point of view, in today’s geopolitical circumstances a real “shooting war” between Georgia and Russia is not possible. Both countries are not interested in that.
Posted by: Tetyana Vysotska | May 18th, 2008 at 11:19 am | Report this commentGeorgia will not start massive combat operations in Abkhazia, South Ossetia or elsewhere at least because it will never win the war with Russian Federation. So, it is completely right that official Tbilisi is just talking tough (as the author of this blog mentioned) to gain attention of international community and to make easier the NATO-talks on possible membership.
From the other hand, Russia is also not interested to start serious military operation against Georgia due to a lot of reasons – both external and internal. Actually Russia has no intention to give independence to Abkhazia or South Ossetia, as well as it would be stupid for Moscow (taking to the account Russian national interests and need for stability inside country) to annex these territories. Moreover, the mentioned breakaway regions are already under Russian jurisdiction, especially in the economical sense.
Recently I’ve heard an interesting idea of one Russian expert who told that Russia is also interested in peaceful (in the meaning of absence of military conflict) Abkhazia region because of future Olympic games in Sochi. Abkhazia, rich of construction materials (such as crushed stone), is going to be one of the biggest suppliers of the Olympics-related construction in Sochi region.
I am more worried about Turkey than what is going on in Georgia…
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | May 19th, 2008 at 3:04 pm | Report this commentWhat is wrong with Turkey?
Posted by: Pacifist | May 19th, 2008 at 4:54 pm | Report this commentWell, “P”
They have currently very good leaders…and not a bad economy …they are positioned to become very powerful player again…if they remain united…and dont give into paranoia
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | May 19th, 2008 at 5:47 pm | Report this commentCaution ought ot be the order of the day. Gideon’s subtle advice to the Georgian president was well taken.
Posted by: James Canning | May 19th, 2008 at 7:08 pm | Report this comment“P”
I need your assitance. I want to read and learn more about Sunni/Shia divide in Islam. I am not so interested in a theological perspective but in the socio-economic and political overview…
Thank You
L-H
P.S. Sorry GR for going off topic …but you have left us too long to our own devices here…
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | May 19th, 2008 at 11:00 pm | Report this commentDear Lisa,
imho, the main Sunni-Shia “divide” is in the minds of those who want to divide and rule both communities.
In the Iraqi context, this is particularly true as there had never been anything even remotely approaching the troubles that occurred since 2003, so you can draw your own conclusions.
In drawing your conclusions you may ask why the highly politically-motivated NeoCon apparatchik, General Petraeus, has been arming the Sunni allies of Al Qaeda.
You may also wonder why Al Qaeda has been saying that the Shia are a worse enemey than Americans, bearing in mind that Al Qaeda came into being by American sponsorship.
You may also wonder why the hereditary and other Arab autocrats whose lands are taken by Israel and whose fellow Arabs are subjected to deprivation and humiliation by the US-supported Israelis, concentrate their venom on Iran and seek alliances with USrael against Iran that has supported the Arab cause so thoroughly.
It may all sound conspiratorial but sometimes conspiracies do actually occur and this is one of those cases where the interests of illegitimate and unpopular Arab rulers coincide with the colonialists and terrorist groups.
All the best,
P
Posted by: Pacifist | May 20th, 2008 at 10:04 am | Report this commentWhy should Abkhazia remain part of Georgia? Most people there want to leave Georgia, and the principle of self-determination has been enshrined since 1918. Forcing Abkhazia to remain in Georgia would be just as bad as forcing Kosovo to remain in Serbia.
Posted by: M | May 20th, 2008 at 10:45 am | Report this commentP,
King Abdullah is meeting with Rafsanjani in June…wait and see…something good will come out of it for the benefit of the entire region…
All the best
Lisa
Posted by: Lisa-Helene Lawson | May 20th, 2008 at 3:36 pm | Report this commentLooks like just a rethoric to get points in Georgia’s parliament elections. No more, no less.
Mr.S’vili wants to fully capitalize on feelings of Georgians about Russia’s role in frozen conflicts.
That guy has really creative imagination, so if next time he says that he wants to shoot a Russian satellite over the Moon I wouldn’t even surprise.
Posted by: Andrei, Russia | May 22nd, 2008 at 2:39 pm | Report this comment