There are two things to say about the fighting in Georgia. First, the Georgians had every right to try and take control of South Ossetia - it is part of their country and there is no doubt that the Russian-backed separatists had been acting in a highly provocative fashion.
But second - the Georgians have made a terrible mistake. In a post on May 16th, I argued that Georgian threats to shoot down Russian planes buzzing their airspace would be self-defeating, giving Russia an “excuse to launch military operations against Georgia”. Attacking South Ossetia was an even worse error. By becoming (apparently), the first to shed blood the Georgians lost the moral high ground and gave Russia the causus belli it sought.
It seems to me that the Georgians under-estimated the ferocity of the Russian reaction and over-estimated the support they would get from the west. When I interviewed President Saakashvili earlier this year, he was keen to boast of his personal friendships with the likes of President Bush, John McCain and President Sarkozy. My hotel in Tbilisi was full of American military personnel. But Nato’s refusal to offer Georgia a ”Membership action plan” late last year was a warning that there was a clear limit to how far Georgia’s western friends will go in its defence.
But now it may be the Russians turn to overplay their hand. By bombing Georgian territory and killing civilians they are quickly stripping away the excuse that this is a defensive or humanitarian action. That could force the west into the confrontation it has been trying to avoid. It may be that both Russia and Georgia end up badly damaged by this little war.

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This blog covers a variety of topics from US foreign policy to European politics and the Middle East - and whatever else happens to be in the news or catch my attention. I joined the FT as chief foreign affairs commentator in 2006, after a 15-year career at The Economist which included stints as a correspondent in Brussels, Bangkok and Washington. I write a weekly column on foreign affairs, which appears in the paper on Tuesdays. Occasionally my FT colleagues contribute posts to this blog.
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