There are two things to say about the fighting in Georgia. First, the Georgians had every right to try and take control of South Ossetia - it is part of their country and there is no doubt that the Russian-backed separatists had been acting in a highly provocative fashion.

But second - the Georgians have made a terrible mistake. In a post on May 16th, I argued that Georgian threats to shoot down Russian planes buzzing their airspace would be self-defeating, giving Russia an “excuse to launch military operations against Georgia”. Attacking South Ossetia was an even worse error. By becoming (apparently), the first to shed blood the Georgians lost the moral high ground and gave Russia the causus belli it sought.

It seems to me that the Georgians under-estimated the ferocity of the Russian reaction and over-estimated the support they would get from the west. When I interviewed President Saakashvili earlier this year, he was keen to boast of his personal friendships with the likes of President Bush, John McCain and President Sarkozy. My hotel in Tbilisi was full of American military personnel. But Nato’s refusal to offer Georgia a ”Membership action plan” late last year was a warning that there was a clear limit to how far Georgia’s western friends will go in its defence.

But now it may be the Russians turn to overplay their hand. By bombing Georgian territory and killing civilians they are quickly stripping away the excuse that this is a defensive or humanitarian action. That could force the west into the confrontation it has been trying to avoid. It may be that both Russia and Georgia end up badly damaged by this little war.

August 9, 2008 11:46am in Georgia, Russia | Comment