It is just a few hours since Obama was elected - and already events are taking on a retrospective aura of inevitability. The election of the first black president is a historic moment and so it is tempting to believe that it was somehow written in the stars. Obama himself liked to suggest to supporters that “we have a righteous wind at our back”.
The fatalists argue that Bush was so unpopular, the economy so bad, the McCain campaign so confused and the Obama campaign so brilliant, that the Democrat was simply bound to win. I don’t believe it. Don’t forget that shortly after the Republican convention, McCain was actually briefly in the lead. A Republican victory was far from inconceivable.
So what happened? It was not fate that intervened - it was Katie and Dick.
Katie Couric’s CBS interviews with Sarah Palin punctured the Palin bubble. McCain’s running mate turned from being a big asset into a major liability. Tina Fey of Saturday Night Live then applied the coup de grace, by turning Palin into a laughing stock.
Then Lehman Brothers collapsed under the disastrous leadership of Dick Fuld, who quickly became a poster child for greed and economic injustice. I was with a friend who works for Obama, on the day Lehman’s folded. He quickly grasped what was happening - “Terrible for America,” he said, “But great for our campaign”. McCain’s inept response to the financial crisis made sure that Obama’s advantage on economic issues quickly became insurmountable.
And the rest really is history.

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This blog covers a variety of topics from US foreign policy to European politics and the Middle East - and whatever else happens to be in the news or catch my attention. I joined the FT as chief foreign affairs commentator in 2006, after a 15-year career at The Economist which included stints as a correspondent in Brussels, Bangkok and Washington. I write a weekly column on foreign affairs, which appears in the paper on Tuesdays. Occasionally my FT colleagues contribute posts to this blog.
Geoff Dyer is the FT's China bureau chief. He has been a correspondent in Shanghai and in Brazil and has also covered the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology industries from London.
Roula Khalaf is the FT's Middle East editor. She has worked for the FT since 1995, first as North Africa correspondent, then Middle East correspondent and most recently as Middle East editor. Before joining the FT, she was a staff writer for Forbes magazine in New York.
James Blitz is the FT's defence and diplomatic editor. He has been the FT's political editor, based in London, and Rome bureau chief. James is a former Moscow bureau chief for the Sunday Times.
Alan Beattie is the FT's world trade editor. He has previously been economics leader writer and spent two years in Washington DC as chief US economics correspondent. Before joining the FT, Alan was an economist at the Bank of England.
Victor Mallet is the FT's Madrid correspondent. He is a former Asia editor of the FT, and, in more than 20 years at the organisation, has also worked in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. In 1990 he escaped from Kuwait after being one of the few foreign correspondents there when Iraq invaded.
Stefan Wagstyl is the FT's eastern Europe editor, co-ordinating coverage of the region. He has also been the FT's bureau chief in Tokyo and New Delhi.