Now that the G20 has staged its first ever summit, it is clear that the venerable old G8 has a real challenger on its hands. The G20 has a lot going for it. It includes China, India and Brazil. It has the aura and excitement of novelty. It even has another summit scheduled - in April - which will be well before the next big G8 gathering in Italy this summer.
On the other hand, the G8 still has some advantages. It is a smaller and less unwieldy group. It has a history and an institutional weight behind it. It still contains most of the world’s leading economies - and they are all democracies. Shared values, and all that.
In fact, I would even argue that the G8 was quite well-placed to see off the upstart G20 - were it not for one thing. Next year it will be presided over by that one-man wrecking crew, Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister of Italy.
Berlusconi has a “sense of humour” that makes him a uniquely disastrous chair for international organisations. Hie presidency of the European Union in 2003 was catastrophic. He caused uproar in the European Parliament by comparing a German politician to a Nazi concentration-camp guard. In an official photo, he made the sign of the cuckold’s horns behind the head of a Spanish minister. He opened a summit designed to discuss the future of Europe by suggesting to his fellow leaders that they discuss women and football instead. Then he turned to the chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Schroder, and suggested that he should open the discussion since he had been married four times. Amazingly enough, Schroder did not see the funny side.
Now Berlusconi is warming up for his presidency of the G8 with a few more wisecracks. He has complimented Barack Obama on his tan. Twice.
After a year with Berlusconi in charge, I can confidently predict that the G8 will be a smouldering ruin.

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This blog covers a variety of topics from US foreign policy to European politics and the Middle East - and whatever else happens to be in the news or catch my attention. I joined the FT as chief foreign affairs commentator in 2006, after a 15-year career at The Economist which included stints as a correspondent in Brussels, Bangkok and Washington. I write a weekly column on foreign affairs, which appears in the paper on Tuesdays. Occasionally my FT colleagues contribute posts to this blog.
Geoff Dyer is the FT's China bureau chief. He has been a correspondent in Shanghai and in Brazil and has also covered the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology industries from London.
Roula Khalaf is the FT's Middle East editor. She has worked for the FT since 1995, first as North Africa correspondent, then Middle East correspondent and most recently as Middle East editor. Before joining the FT, she was a staff writer for Forbes magazine in New York.
James Blitz is the FT's defence and diplomatic editor. He has been the FT's political editor, based in London, and Rome bureau chief. James is a former Moscow bureau chief for the Sunday Times.
Alan Beattie is the FT's world trade editor. He has previously been economics leader writer and spent two years in Washington DC as chief US economics correspondent. Before joining the FT, Alan was an economist at the Bank of England.
Victor Mallet is the FT's Madrid correspondent. He is a former Asia editor of the FT, and, in more than 20 years at the organisation, has also worked in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. In 1990 he escaped from Kuwait after being one of the few foreign correspondents there when Iraq invaded.
Stefan Wagstyl is the FT's eastern Europe editor, co-ordinating coverage of the region. He has also been the FT's bureau chief in Tokyo and New Delhi.