Sleaze and the European elections

May 13, 2009 1:11pm

As readers of this blog might have gathered, I have just been in Hungary - searching for evidence of political extremism. But perhaps I should have been looking closer to home. It is entirely possible that the far-right British National Party - which enjoys fraternal relations with Jobbik in Hungary - will gain a seat, perhaps more than one in the European Parliamentary elections on June 4th.

The BNP are not showing up well in the polls - but that is probably because people are reluctant to admit voting for them. In fact, conditions are perfect for the BNP. There is a deep recession, and now there is a sleaze and expenses scandal that is engulfing the British Parliament and discrediting mainstream politicians. UKIP - the UK Independence Party, which wants to withdraw the UK from the European Union - is another party that should benefit from the scandal. UKIP made a big breakthrough in the last Euro-elections in 2004; and the polls have been suggesting that they will do much worse this time. But the sleaze scandal looks likely to give them a big boost.

Where else might we see startling results? Geert Wilders, a Dutch politician who capitalises on anti-Muslim sentiment (slogan -”Against Eurabia and for the Netherlands”) is doing well in the polls. One conservative blog claims that he is even ahead of the main centre-right party, the Christian Democrats - which would be a sensation, if true.

And a lot of people are also expecting big things from the Trotskyites in France, with gains for the party led by Olivier Besancenot, a good-looking young postman. One poll appeared to put him at level-pegging with President Sarkozy. All in all, this might be an unusually interesting (and disturbing) European Parliamentary election.