Economists v Historians: cats v kings

June 3, 2009 4:45pm

I have enjoyed the spat between Niall Ferguson and Paul Krugman: public intellectual v public intellectual; Harvard v Princeton - and, most significantly, historian v economist.

Essentially Krugman accused Ferguson of not knowing what he was talking about and having a shaky grasp of economics. I thought Ferguson’s response in the FT was remarkably good-tempered under the circumstances. As a former historian, I particularly enjoyed his line - “A cat may look at a king and sometimes a historian can challenge an economist.” I quoted this to one of the economists on the FT staff, who remarkred snootily that he regarded that as a reasonable summary of the intellectual hierarchy.

I think one of the reasons that economists feel able to talk down to historians is that while they speak our language - English, we do not always speak their language - Maths. The arrogance of the economics “profession” seems to have survived the financial crisis, despite the fact that they have hardly covered themselves in glory. As Barry Eichengreen (an economics professor) notes in the latest edition of National Interest magazine: “The vast majority of the economics profession remained blissfully silent and indeed unaware of the risk of financial disaster.”

As you might have gathered, the historians v economists dispute has a personal aspect for me. I was reading the comments on my blog (often a mistake), when I came across one on the post about General Motors, advising me to keep silent on this matter - since I do not have a degree in economics. It is true that I cannot do all the silly sums that are necessary to get an economics degree. But then Eichengreen argues that one of the flaws in the economics profession revealed by the crisis is a domination by theorists with “their mastery of sophisticated mathematics” - at the expense of their more empirical and practical colleagues.

I heard something similar recently from a friend who teaches economics at Oxford, who was bemoaning the fact that the course there is increasingly maths-based. His explanation is that maths-driven economics is so obscure and uninteresting to the outside world, that the academics who specialise in it can spend all their time in Oxford, taking over the faculty. By contrast, the economists whose work is empirical and expressed largely in English find themselves in demand in the outside world - and therefore do not have the time to block the forward march of the mathemeticians.

Certainly my own grasp of economics - such as it is - comes from taking courses in economic history at university, and then sitting through fourteen years of editorial meetings at The Economist. Even accepting the fact that I was asleep half the time, that still counts as a seven-year tutorial in economic theory, as applied to the real world.

But let’s not make this too personal - it could get embarrassing. Returning to the Krugman-Ferguson dispute. In detail, it strikes me as rather arcane - and Martin Wolf has a go at arbitrating in today’s FT. But, on the general principle, I would argue that historians, with their tradition of empiricism, are at least as likely to have something useful to say about the current crisis as those economists whose models came so spectacularly unstuck a few months ago.