Gary Samore is the kind of sane, well-informed and low-key professional who makes me glad that Obama is now in control of US foreign policy. He works on the National Security Council and has a long and complicated title to do with arms control and nuclear non-proliferation, but he says the president refers to him as “my nukes guy”, which about sums it up. That means that Samore spends his days grappling with some of the most sensitive dossiers in US foreign policy - in particular Iran, Russia and North Korea.
Yesterday he was in London on his way back from the Moscow summit and he gave an on-the-record briefing at the International Institute of Strategic Studies. Naturally there are limits to how frank you can be in such a setting, but I still thought he had several interesting things to say:
First, the nuclear-arms reduction deal agreed in principle in Moscow is essentially a modest first step. The START (strategic arms reduction) treaty runs out at the end of the year, and it is important to have an interim agreement on further reduction - if only to keep the mechanisms for mutual inspections and co-operation going. If they can nail down all the details on this initial relatively modest reduction in nuclear weapons, Samore hopes that Russia and the US will then be able to negotiate a deal for much deeper cuts in nuclear-weapons stock-piles. He says that at that point Russian concerns about missile defence will become more valid. The Americans argue that the system they are working on is so modest that it could only be effective against a country with a very small number of nuclear missiles - such as, potentially, an Iran that went nuclear.
Talking of Iran, Samore was very keen to put a positive spin on the agreement reached with the Russians. He seeemed genuinely optimistic that they might sign up to tough sanctions against Iran at the end of the year, if the Iranians have not made significant concessions on their nuclear programme. Personally, I found this the least convincing bit of his presentation. But he did point to a joint commission that the Russians and Americans have set up to look into the Iranian nuclear programme. This could make it harder for the Russians to deny that there is a problem. He also says that the Russians want a Start treaty more than the Americans and that the Americans want tough action on Iran more than the Russians - so there may be a trade there.
Finally, Samore was more relaxed than I had imagined about North Korea. He reckons that, after all the fireworks of the missile and nuclear tests, “my sense is that they (the North Koreans) are looking for a way to de-escalate now.” Pyongyang reacted relatively mildly to the latest UN resolution on North Korea and didn’t do much to spoil the Americans’ day on July 4th. But the real difficulties will come when North Korea comes back to the bargaining table. How can the rest of the world believe and verify what they say? As Obama has said - the US does not want to buy the same horse from North Korea for the third time.

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This blog covers a variety of topics from US foreign policy to European politics and the Middle East - and whatever else happens to be in the news or catch my attention. I joined the FT as chief foreign affairs commentator in 2006, after a 15-year career at The Economist which included stints as a correspondent in Brussels, Bangkok and Washington. I write a weekly column on foreign affairs, which appears in the paper on Tuesdays. Occasionally my FT colleagues contribute posts to this blog.
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