The Malaysian government deserves congratulations for reforming its policy of quotas in favour of ethnic Malays. There is a pleasing symmetry in the fact that Najib Rajak, the current prime minister, is overhauling ethnically-based policies that were introduced almost forty years ago by his father, Abdul Razak.

Now if Malaysia really wants to jump head first into the 21st century, can I suggest another reform - abolish the law making sodomy a crime. This law is not some irrelevant and forgotten anachronism. Anwar Ibrahim, the leader of the Malaysian opposition, is about to go on trial for allegedly having sex with a male aide. He has already served a long jail term after being convicted of sodomy in 1998 - a conviction that was over-turned in 2004. The new case is being tastefully referred to in the Malaysian press as “Sodomy Two“.

Anwar insists that he is innocent and the victim of trumped-up, poliitcally-motivated charges. His devoted wife has long been one of his keenest defenders. But in any case, it is awful that the government of a modern state, has such a backward law on its statute books.

So have we finally seen the evidence that it is indeed possible to win a military victory in the war on terror? The Sri Lankan government of Mahinda Rajapaska certainly seems to have achieved something like that. Over weeks of intensive and gruelling fighting, it gradually pinned back the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) into a smaller and smaller pocket of land - finally killing the Tigers’ legendary leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran.

These developments have been greeted as a triumph in Colombo - but with unease in much of the west. The Sri Lankans, for their part, are angry about what they regard as European sympathy for a terrorist organisation. Earlier this month Carl Bildt, the widely-respected Swedish foreign minister, was denied a visa to visit Sri Lanka. And a couple of days ago, demonstrators in Colombo stoned the British embassy and burned an effigy of David Miliband, the British foreign secretary, in protest at Britain’s alleged sympathy with the LTTE. Continue reading "Sri Lanka and the war on terror"

It is remarkable how little attention the war in Sri Lanka is getting. Londoners are probably dimly aware that something is going on, because of the big Tamil demonstrations that have been taking place outside Parliament. The serious papers, like the FT, are running reports on the inside pages.

But the suffering and carnage being caused, as the Sri Lankan government presses for a final victory over the Tamil Tigers, is remarkable and disturbing. The estimates I have heard are 6,500 civilian deaths; over 100,000 refugees and 50,000 civilians trapped in a four-square mile patch of land, on Sri Lanka’s north-east coast. As one British official put it to me today - “It makes what happened in Gaza look like a sideshow.”

In fact, a lot of the accusations flying around on both sides are reminiscent of Gaza: the government accuses the Tamil rebels of using civilians as “human shields”; the rebels accuse the government of trying to starve a civilian population into submission; the international press are kept impotently outside the conflict zone.

International diplomacy is finally cranking into action. John Holmes, the UN’s co-ordinator for humanitarian affairs, arrived over the weekend. David Miliband, Bernard Kouchner and Carl Bildt- the British, French and Swedish foreign secretaries - are due to arrive on a joint visit later this week. They fear that the Sri Lankan government is intent on a purely military solution and they may try to persuade the authorities in Colombo to be magnanimous in victory, by starting an inclusive political process aimed at national reconciliation. But I wouldn’t hold out much hope. Sri Lankan government ministers are exulting that the “LTTE is down on its knees.” They sound in no mood for mercy, or reconciliation.

By sending ground troops into the Gaza Strip, Israel has crossed a line that brings it perilously close to strategic failure.

Just as with the Lebanon war of 2006, an air bombardment has failed to stop rocket fire into Israel – and has been followed by a ground invasion. The Israeli government says it has learnt the lessons of its stalemated war with Hizbollah, the Lebanese militia. Gaza is more hospitable terrain than southern Lebanon; Hamas is militarily weaker than Hizbollah; Israel is better prepared and is using new tactics.

Maybe so. But what are Israel’s strategic needs? The first is the protection of Israeli citizens; the second is the re-establishment of Israel’s deterrent power; the third is the preservation of international support; and the fourth some prospect of durable peace. Each one of these objectives is now in peril.

The remainder of the article can be read here. Please post comments below.

The great Wall Street meltdown is a huge economic and financial event. But might it also signal a historic shift in global politics – a moment that both marks and accelerates the decline of American power?

I have just spent the past two weeks in China and India – and it is clear that the thought has occurred to many people there. Whatever the long-term economic impact on Asia of America’s financial crisis, a psychological shift is already evident.

The success of the Beijing Olympics in August and the failure of Wall Street in September has been a boost to Chinese self-confidence.

Pan Wei, director of the Center for Chinese and Global Affairs at Beijing university, mused aloud to me that: “My belief is that in 20 years we will look the Americans straight in the eye – as equals. But maybe it will come sooner than that. Their system is in chaos and they need our money to rescue them.”

Continue reading “Asia rides high - for the moment“.