Preparing for the first blue president

November 4th, 2008 9:01am

We are on the brink of history. On Tuesday the US could elect its first ever blue president.

The fact that Barack Obama would also be the first black president has obscured the significance of his political colouring. If he wins, he will be the first northern, urban liberal to win the presidency since the culture wars broke out in the US in the 1960s.

For the past 40 years, cultural conflicts over race, religion, patriotism and the permissive society have gradually divided America into Republican “red” states and Democratic “blue” states. There have been three Democrats elected to the presidency since the mid-1960s – but Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were all white southerners, whose cultural heritage blunted the sharpness of the division between red and blue America. Their states – Texas, Georgia and Arkansas, respectively – all went for George W. Bush in 2004. Mr Obama, by contrast, is a college professor from Chicago with one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate. He is blue America personified.

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Conservatism overshoots its limit

October 7th, 2008 1:56am

The market for ideas – like the market for shares – always overshoots. Ideas become fashionable and get pushed to their logical conclusion and beyond, as their backers succumb to “irrational exuberance”. Then comes the crash.

What we are experiencing now is the bust that has followed the 30-year bull run in conservative ideas that began with the Thatcher-Reagan revolution of 1979-80.

You can get a sense of how quickly the intellectual atmosphere has changed by picking up a copy of Alan Greenspan’s The Age of Turbulence, which was published last year. Mr Greenspan, head of the Federal Reserve from 1987 until 2006, heaped praise on the magic of financial markets and decried the foolishness of those who called for more regulation: “Why do we wish to inhibit the pollinating bees of Wall Street?” he asked rhetorically. Why indeed?

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Food prices, political unrest and Jeff Sachs

May 3rd, 2008 12:46pm

I went to a couple of meetings this week where the food crisis was discussed. At Chatham House on Monday John Holmes, the UN’s co-ordinator for emeregency relief, gave a careful and under-stated presentation -which was still alarming in its implications. He told me after the meeting that he thinks that we are still only at the beginning of the food crisis - and that prices and hunger are likely to keep rising for a while yet.

I’ve certainly noticed on my travels that food prices are now a big political issue in almost every country that I visit. I first noticed it on a trip to Pakistan and Bangladesh at the beginning of the year. In both countries, people told me that the biggest source of popular discontent were not the machinations of President Musharraf or the Bangladeshi interim government. It was the fact that the price of staple foods had gone up by as much as 40% over the last year. Continue reading "Food prices, political unrest and Jeff Sachs"