Bertie Ahern, who has just resigned as Irish prime minister, is a Dubliner with the common touch. Taxi drivers in Dublin liked to point out his relatively modest house and the suburban pub in which he allegedly drank. Bertie’s outward modesty contrasted with the high-living of his political mentor, former pm, Charlie Haughey. But the apparent end of his political career is very reminiscent of Haughey. Both men were ultimately laid low by official tribunals investigating their finances and unexplained payments they had recieved.  Ahern must now wince at Haughey’s (admiring) description of him as “the most devious, the most cunning of them all.”

All of that makes Ahern sound like a very traditional Irish politician and prime minister. But watching Bertie operate in Europe over the past decade, it struck me that he represented a new Ireland. He was prime minister during the period in which Irish GDP-per-capita overtook that of Britain. And he dealt with the British and with other European leaders with complete confidence in who he was - and in the country he represented. That enabled him to form an excellent working relationship with Tony Blair - which was crucial in bringing peace to Northern Ireland. Ahern’s experience and patience as a negotiator was then used to good effect in Europe - where he successfully concluded negotiations on the European Union constitution: an achievement that had eluded Silvio Berlusconi of Italy.

After the successful Brussels negotiations on the constitution - chaired by Ahern - a lot of the Brussels press corps piled into the local Irish pub, “Kitty O’Shea’s”. The assumption was that Ahern - the typical Irishman, after all - would inevitably celebrate his achievements with a pint of Guinness at the nearest pub. But Bertie never showed up. It later transpired that he had instead spent the evening drinking champagne at Brussels’s poshest hotel. That’s the new Ireland for you.

Another European Union summit has just got underway in Brussels. I used to go to a lot of these things. From the inside they can seem quite important and exciting. But as an outsider, it is often difficult to see the point.

You can say the same thing about what passes for foreign policy debate in the major European capitals. I was in Madrid last week. The outside world barely featured in the Spanish election campaign (other than in the form of illegal immigrants, mysteriously washing up on Spanish shores). Advisers to Jose Luis Zapatero, the prime minister, are proud of their man’s role in launching the “Alliance of Civilisations” - his major foreign policy initiative. But the “alliance” is a complete non-topic in the real world. (Can any readers of this blog honestly say that they they know what it is, without benefit of an internet search?)

Now I’m in Paris. Here too, the head of government has launched a major foreign policy initiative - generating much local fanfare, and very little interest anywhere else. Sarkozy’s big idea is a Mediterranean Union, attempting to create closer ties between the EU and North Africa. The French claim that the EU summit has already endorsed the idea - and they will certainly try to give it a renewed push when they take over the presidency of the EU later this year.

(more…)

How appropriate that the French parliament has approved the European Union’s Lisbon treaty in a special session at Versailles. By ignoring public opinion in this way, France’s politicians have proved themselves to be worthy heirs of Louis XIV.

The Lisbon treaty is essentially a repackaging of the European Union constitution that was decisively rejected in a referendum in France in 2005. As a defeated politician once put it - "The people have spoken, the bastards." But the newly-married President Sarkozy is not one to take rejection lying down. He has decided to push through the new treaty, without risking a second referendum. He argues that a second rejection would be disastrous for both France and the European Union.

Some French pro-Europeans are cheekily arguing that the parliamentary vote proves that "France" has had second thoughts. A Mr Giuliani of the Fondation Robert Schuman (I was wondering what had happened to him) is quoted in today’s FT as saying - "The French tasted isolation in Europe in recent years and they didn’t like it." Well, I’m sure Mr Giuliani didn’t like it. But what the French people themselves think, we will never know. Opinion polls show that well over 50% of them would like a second referendum on Lisbon. But France’s political elite is not going to make that mistake again.

I lived in Brussels for several years, so it might seem odd that I want Britain to hold a referendum on the European Union’s new treaty. For the European crowd that I know well, advocating a referendum is not simply an act of political treason. It is a gross social faux pas – a bit like putting furry dice in your car. There is a range of adjectives that is readily applied to the pro-referendum camp: xenophobic, spit-flecked, swivel-eyed, Little Englander.

Put aside the abuse, and it seems to me that there are three serious arguments against having a referendum on the treaty – which is expected to be all but finalised at a European summit later this week. First, this is a relatively trivial treaty. Britain did not vote on much more far-reaching measures such as the Single European Act or the Maastricht treaty, so why vote on this? Second, the EU is a good thing – and a British No would plunge it into crisis. Finally, there is Britain’s national interest. A British No would provoke a damaging rupture in its relations with the rest of Europe.

The remainder of this column can be read here; comments can be made below.

If you happen to be passing though Malibu next month, why not pop into an intriguing-sounding conference at Pepperdine University on "The Collapse of Europe". One of the early sessions is entitled - "Eurabia: Is Muslim domination of Europe inevitable?"

My answer to this is "No" it’s not inevitable. In fact, given that the Muslim population of Europe is just 4% at the moment, I would say it’s highly unlikely. But don’t trying telling that to an audience of American conservatives. The idea that Europe is about to be submerged by the Muslim hordes seems to be almost recieved wisdom over there. It is certainly a notion that has launched a great many books. There is “Eurabia: The Euro-Arab Axis” by Bat Ye’or; “While Europe Slept – How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within” by Bruce Bawer; “The Death of the West” by Pat Buchanan; and “The Cube and the Cathedral” by George Weigel.

(more…)

Eminent Europeans like nothing better than the chance to hold earnest debates about the future of Europe. So the celebrations to mark the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome in Berlin on March 25th are being eagerly anticipated. I can see it now – the Brandenburg Gate; the Ode to Joy; the politicians linking hands; the fireworks. And – of course – there will be a wonderful “Berlin declaration” celebrating the past and future of the European Union.

The declaration’s drafters seem to be behaving a bit like a student with an essay crisis. They have still to produce a draft. But they are promising something that will be short – two to three pages – and memorable. They realise that the chances of anything memorable being produced by a committee are close to zero. So one idea is that the whole thing should be delegated to one very clever person, with a bit of a literary flair. The said person will be locked into a room overnight, with a flask of coffee and a bottle of whisky and will be expected to emerge with something at least as good as Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence.

But who this person is – and how they are doing – remains a closely guarded secret. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking. The only word out of the German government so far is that the Berlin Declaration will contain a lot about Europe’s social mission – which sounds deeply unpromising.

(more…)

I was in Brussels last week and talked to some of the European Union’s top foreign policy officials. The EU, of course, does not make policy for the Union on its own. But the Brussels foreign policy types do play an important role in framing and co-ordinating policy - and often serve as the public face of Europe. They are also have a unique vantage point. All European leaders spend a lot of time in Brussels. And everybody of importance - from President Bush to President Putin and the leaders of the Middle East - passes through at some point. One of the people I saw made a point of telling me how many important people had sat in the very chair in which I was now reclining. I was honoured, of course. (more…)

Tomorrow I am taking part in a propaganda exercise. Or - to be more precise - I will be chairing a session at a conference in Brussels that will launch the new "Movement for European Reform."

It would be difficult to describe the MER as a broad-based movement. In fact, as far as I can see, it looks pretty much a front for Britain’s Conservative party. There are only two political parties represented at the opening conference - the Tories and the centre-right ODS from the Czech Republic. The conference will be opened with a speech from Mirek Topolanek, the Czech prime minister and the closing address will be from David Cameron, the Tory leader.

(more…)

Finland’s six-month presidency of the European Union has been pretty unremarkable in most ways. But I will miss Erkki Tuomioja, the Finnish foreign minister – who has been thrust into the spotlight as the chairman of all the EU’s foreign policy deliberations over the past six months.

I first came across him when I was doing a TV interview outside an EU summit a couple of years ago. As I was standing on the BBC’s gantry, I noticed an unkempt figure, with a straggly beard, a rucksack and a Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament badge in his lapel. I was a little alarmed by this, and was hoping that somebody from security would turn up and move him on. But then it turned out that he was the other guest – and, in fact, Finland’s foreign minister. He has made a striking chairman of the EU’s foreign affairs council.

As for the European summit, which is the nominal reason for my presence in Brussels. It’s a bits-and-pieces occasion. The EU has managed to avert a major crisis over Turkey’s bid to join the EU, by cooking up one of its traditional half-baked compromises, which successfully pushes the problem a few months down the road. There is a bit of discussion about the Balkan countries’ prospects of joining the EU – not too great, in the medium-term at least. And a half-hearted row about what the EU should do about Russia banning Polish food imports.

(more…)

Earlier this year Radek Sikorski, the Polish defence minister, raised a few eyebrows when he compared the current Russo-German project to build a gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea to the "Molotov-Ribbentrop pact" - the Nazi-Soviet agreement, which laid the groundwork for the invasion of Poland. The Poles are worried that the new pipeline might allow Russia to keep supplying German energy needs, while submitting the Poles to "energy blackmail" of the sort the Russians tried out on Ukraine, at the turn of the year. Once again, the Poles fear, their biggest neighbours are making an anti-Polish deal over their heads.
I am currently in Warsaw and I have to say that the mood among government officials here has not lightened up since Sikorski made his comments. On the contrary, the Poles feel that current events in Russia are vindicating the warnings they have been making for years.

(more…)